My Portfolio_Homemaker


#152

@cshar @jamit05
Your comments on ALL, are in line with the report…:ok_hand:Will keep a close watch for 1-2 quarters…


(simplyraghav) #153

Only their India business.


(Investor_No_1) #154

yes, I meant all India brands. Not sure about his deal but HUL is not a share to be sold…I think it is a share to be held and added on declines, corrections and crashes. I have to still own 1 HUL share. Did not buy it at Rs 200 around 8-9 years back when I first saw its price, did not buy it in recent correction at Rs 1500. Maybe will end up buying higher one day.


(sincyvarghese) #155

Being the novice, I personally think valuation wise this is sweet for HUL. If they are able to build upon the GSK food franchise log term then, in the short term this looks good financially. HUL has given a value of 31,700 crores for the GSK business. GSK TTM net profits were 851 crores (Screener.in). This is a valuation of 37.25 times earnings. HUL P/E hovers around 60. Now even if brand Horlicks per se de-grows over the next few years HUL is getting a reasonable discount.


#156

Added today Abbott India- 5% of portfolio.

It has run up significantly in this year. However PE of 35 is in line with most MNC pharma companies. Abbott India introduced 20 new products this year and 16 of them are successful as per CEO. Abbott has plans to add 100 such new products, in next 5 years. This is a steady growth story as I understood. R&D cost is majorly borne by Abbott USA. Improving margins in last 2-3 years. Great cash flow, as vetted by Saurabh Mukherjea.

IMO, Comparing with India pharma, it faces lesser headwinds, USFDA observations, regulatory challenges.

Also intuitively, I find US companies great at marketing and can position even medicines as FMCG. Also, India seems to happily offer domestic market for US MNCs to grow freely in general.


(Bhaskar Jain) #157

Hoping they do it via the listed entity and not via the 100% owned subsidiary like in the case of Pediasure and other such products. I also read Saurabh’s interview and did a very quick checking and the above point turned me off. I recall Novartis also doing the same thing few years back and market at that time did not like this at all.

Also are you aware if Novo Nordisk’s insulin products are still distributed by Abbott in India? I read old news report but nothing in the latest AR.


#158

From MD Ambati Venu interview, I could understand that core focus ( gastroenterology, metabolics, vaccines, central nervous system and women’s health) area will see new product launches which is typically under listed. OTC and milk formulation, new products might be launched under unlisted. This is indeed a dampener.

Novo tied up with Torrent & Abbott. Latest update till 2016 is available online & I am aware. Thereafter, I dont have much idea.


(Bhaskar Jain) #159

Thanks. Let me study Abbott. Reason for asking about Novo’s product distribution was, recently purchased a few flexpen for a relative and was shocked seeing the high cost of it. Pack mentioned only Novo Nordisk. Looks like they are only distributing it in India now-a-days. Insulin is a biologic so its costly and coming up with generic/bio-similar is complex. I think biocon is doing some work there but not tracking it. For vaccines, Glaxo pharma is also a good bet. Have been holding it for last few years and they give good dividend also.

I think this is the interview you are referring to -


(Investor_No_1) #160

Does Glaxo pharma have any OTC products or intends to grow in that space in India?


(Bhaskar Jain) #161

Very few like calpol, betnovate skin cream from GSKPharma in India. I think they are more focused on vaccines.Otherwise GSK has very good OTC products like Eno, Iodex, Sensodyne, Otrivin, Crocin.


#162

Head to Head: Atul vs Aarti ( Chosen 2 large chemical stocks nearing 52 week high)

  1. Sales, profit, share price growth, Margin wise Aarti is better than Atul.

  2. But Valuation, FCF, D:E wise Atul is better than Aarti.

  3. Atul looks like a safe / defensive stock, while Aarti is an enterprising stock.


#163

Nice summary of learning from expert boarders.

Awesome concept of clustering. I never heard of this term, but intuitively felt this is basic in volatile stock market. This is one of the reasons why timing at stock level is not worth and buy hold often yields better result.


#164

India is moving towards more efficient economy than growth economy and ROCE becoming more important than EPS growth.


#165

For those who think making a portfolio in October was a good move as it was the bottom, including me, this article is something to take note. Waiting in the sidelines will be trend for next 6 months as it seems.


(Bhaskar Jain) #166

State election results may change the mood of the market. Fingers crossed.


(Amit Jain) #167

In election year the ruling party tends to walk a mile to keep the sentiment buoyant. No bears in sight for a year at least. Market is likely to grind away in a range.


(Mayank Goel) #168

Hello,
In which areas Asian paints is better than its peers like Berger paints, Nerolac and Nobel India limited? Can u please explain the rational behind your choice for Asian paints?


(simplyraghav) #169

I am taking a completely opposite stance here; instead of waiting for the clouds to part and sun to shine, I am reinventing my portfolio and investing small amounts, wherein I am willing to accept a draw-down of 40-50%. Historically, in bear markets or range bound markets , few sectors outperform most, and if I can discover those and also, get my allocation correct, I can learn a lot about practical investing. I am trying to be brave. Cheers!


(Mahendra243) #170

Bear markets are shorter…from few months to 2 years…if you don’t invest… what the point…add slowly to your high conviction bets


(arpitjain512) #171

You may also want to Consider following scripts in Chemical space :
Vinati Organics
Transpek industry
Excel Industries