One more reason to add to volatility ahead🤔
From what I know, he just went to local stores and saw customers still using Amex card and stores still accepting them. So at the consumer level there was no impact of the oil scandal. Obviously he knew the business very well much much before the scandal so that would have given him confidence to go ahead and bet a big part of his portfolio.
Market already knew this. Also, I feel the Kotak Mahindra story was also planted keeping in view of today’s RBI legal recourse disclosure. I can’t back up my thesis with any facts or evidence but as per the charts the share price followed each news and ended up favoring Kotak, otherwise we would have seen a Yes Bank kind of move.
Even Index Investing can yield negative or zero returns over a decade. Need to exercise extra caution , while investing in small caps. 2008 to 2018, return is Nil
Today all newspapers and analysts predicted a massive gap down and fall of atleast 200 points in nifty. However market in my view has changed in last 1-2 years. Buy the Tip has changed to Buy the Dip. Market ending in green was a big surprise…
I see today’s rally as driven by shorters squeeze, and that is no surprise, market squeezes shorter just when they feel most optimistic about their prospects. That’s why the rally was led by Yes Bank and DHFL (though it may also be because they will benefit most from liquidity easing)
They don’t. All of the indices which have been around for 10 years had returns between 5-24 %, although the poor or great performing indices may or may not have an index fund or ETF.
If index investing yields negative or zero returns I think there will not be a market.
The market will still be there, and the best example, and the longest bear market, is japanese equities, it’s index is still trading below the 1990 peak.
I have heard this comment before, although I have no knowledge about economies and markets I don’t think our country can be compared to Japan as we also have many local factors that drive our economy along with the global factors. Prices may rise and fall with FIIs, but indices over long-term have delivered and will deliver which may or may not beat the inflation.
I bought 3 books not stocks. This was to keep myself out of unnecessary activity which is injurious to financial health.
- One up on Wall Street
- The Intelligent Investor
- Security Analysis
I am not a reader, but will slowly develop the skill as it will add some value and more importantly make me more patient.
Coming back to portfolio, I added HDFC bank as its numero uno private bank. I also bought tracking positions into 3 mnc small caps - GMM pfaudler, Kennametal and Merck.
Will post performance after a while. Nothing special as its just following the market ups and down. Just as good as index so far. No alpha as we call in investing parlance
I would recommend reverse order of reading.
Interesting, can you pls elaborate how would reversing order of reading be more helpful? Thanks
Nice read… Some lines of thought on VUCA and what 2019 may look like.
From what I have gathered from reading all the three mentioned classics, I feel in Security Analysis, Graham talks about basics of all kind of investments- bonds, Fixed Deposits, stocks, etc and provide a bottoms up approach to them. In Intelligent Investor, Graham is speaking to people who already are investing in equity and the language can be daunting. Lastly, in One up on wall street, Lynch offers a more domestic, use and feel kind of approach, wherein he prescribes certain framework to investing.
So, basically, the reverse order, I feel, is natural progression for a value Investor.
Updated Portfolio : On a lighter note, this looks to me like a mutual fund
|S.No||Company Name||Unrealized Profit/Loss %||Portfolio WT %|
|1||MARUTI SUZUKI INDIA LTD||16%||8%|
|2||L&T TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED||2%||8%|
|3||PAGE INDUSTRIES LTD||-10%||7%|
|5||3M INDIA LIMITED||9%||6%|
|6||BAJAJ FINANCE LIMITED||30%||5%|
|7||PIDILITE INDUSTRIES LTD||19%||5%|
|8||AVANTI FEEDS LTD||8%||4%|
|9||HOUSING DEVELOPMENT FINANCE CO||14%||4%|
|10||GLAXOSMITHKLINE CONSUMER HEALT||7%||4%|
|11||ASHOK LEYLAND LTD||-1%||4%|
|12||YES BANK LIMITED||-6%||4%|
|13||ABBOTT INDIA LIMITED||-6%||4%|
|14||GRUH FINANCE LIMITED||0%||4%|
|15||HDFC STANDARD LIFE INS CO LTD||0%||4%|
|16||INDUSIND BANK LIMITED||7%||4%|
|17||STERLITE TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED||-6%||4%|
|18||BRITANNIA INDUSTRIES LTD||13%||3%|
|19||HDFC BANK LIMITED||1%||3%|
|21||KENNAMETAL INDIA LIMTIED||-3%||2%|
|22||GMM PFAUDLER LTD||-2%||2%|
How much percentage of cash are you holding? If there are 22 stocks in portfolio is it not better to buy some good MF(Tough question!!)??
I dont have clear definition of cash. Its kind of flexible. One can break FDs, withdraw PF, stop LIC, borrow from friends, relatives, sell house or even take loan. None of these that I recommend neither do, but its very flexible in my definition… If market becomes cheap and extremely attractive, one can free up cash if need be.
However, from medium term cash perspective cash is 75 % earning 5 to 6 % approx.
MF yes, I do lump sum, one shot entry only when main index corrects by say 20 %.
Portfolio started as concentrated, but I lacked confidence. Also very volatile… So diversified. Will load up and down for the time being. May be after 12 months will do rebalancing… That’s my mota mota plan
You have good stocks but individual allocation is too small… for me. Hence it will restrict the upside to the portfolio while protecting your downsides… so its basically a quasi mutual fund
I prefer to have 10-12 stocks in main portfolio where almost 90-95% allocation goes. Rest 5% gets divided between 5 new ideas/tracking position stocks where I would like to keep them under observation for 2-3 quarters before deciding whether to increase their allocation or exit. If increase, some of the current one has to give way
It doesn’t work out each time but I started liking it this way…
Usually when I see portfolios of people who share in this forum, I can see a hidden theme in there or an easily identifiable thought process. However, looking at your mix of stocks from 1 till 27…I am unable to identify it It could be you run on multiple thought process, investing styles etc. or your theme is evolving. Having said that I see good amount of Technology, Finance and MNC play in your portfolio.
You are very right. I am reading, learning and experimenting all at the same time. So may be no secular theme is visible. However, my top 4 sectors are as below. MNC heavy is intentional. I think, in general, they command higher PE and have good corporate governance.
|Top Sector||% Allocation|
|Banking & Finance||28%|
|Auto & Auto Ancilliary||13%|