My Portfolio_Homemaker


#132

YB, Avanti & Page were laggards this week. Rest are doing fine.

Bought more of Infosys and reduced Page to have balanced portfolio, adjusted Brittania stock split.

Top 3 stocks are making less than 30%. No stock is less than 4%.

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Yogesh's blue chip 10 Portfolio
#133

@hitesh2710

I have quite often come across from you, Donald and few of expert members to allocate and back your high conviction stocks the most. Even if diversification gets bit skewed.

From the beginning I had high conviction in Maruti, Pidilite & Bajaj Finance. However, I didnot load it up. After reasonable gains in the counters, still the overall impact is not great. Lesson learnt, but again only in hindsight.

Let me have your valuable inputs on averaging up on these 3 stocks and any advice that you may feel is important.

I have a month’s salary as cash :smiley:


#134

I dont follow Shankar Sharma, but this is very candid. Quiting the market out of panic or disgust is a criminal mistake. Easier said than done, esp for newbies. Although exiting to free up cash during overvaluation yet constantly watching for re-entry level is often a good idea. Some random posts…


(Hitesh Patel) #135

@homemaker

Portfolio allocation is something that needs to be worked on with a lot of diligence. While looking at a company if it is a convincing story backed by good numbers and available at decent valuations the first thing that should come to mind is how much allocation should be made to that company. I usually reject a story if it is not worth 5% allocation atleast.

Coming to fat pitches, sometimes in markets you are presented with opportunities where you read up on the company and have a feeling that you know the business quite well, and its quite possible to trace a track in terms of its predictability of earnings, and its available at pretty cheap valuations, and you feel that at some point in the future the company is likely to catch market fancy, and thus lead to a lot of rerating, and so on and so forth. In such situation one has to have the courage to bet hard and usually I have seen these are the kind of bets which make the difference of a lifetime in terms of investing returns.

Atleast in my case I can say that some companies like Ajanta, Kaveri, Mayur, MPS, Manjushree Technopak (no longer listed I think) besides the recent big bets in companies like Bajaj finance have made a lot of difference. Even some not soo good companies but which had strong momentum in terms of price action like Everest Kanto, Kamat Hotels , LT foods etc (where I was pretty sure that there was a definite sell price – not the typical buy and hold kind of companies) with proper allocations made a big difference.

In cricketing parlance, if you are presented with a full toss ball or a free hit, its no use trying out a defensive hit. One has to try to hit a six. But for these kind of bets one has to be absolutely sure that most of the criteria I listed in second paragraph are met with.


(Bikram11206178) #136

@hitesh2710 sir ,

how many stock you like to have in your portfolio at time ? As you have mentioned you will reject an idea if it is not worth 5% allocation . As one fellow investor pointed me that one should not allocate more than 7,8% to an 500cr market cap company as it will give more volatility to your portfolio.

Can you tell me your views on this kind of small market cap company and what percentage you would like to give in your portfolio. Do you find any stock in recent time whose characteristic are similar to ajanta , kaveri and mayur. As i was reading all these thread, i found you had great conviction on these stock and you discovered these stock at cheap valuation.In this current market scenario,do you see company with multibagger potential with cheap valuation.

Thanks,


(Investor_No_1) #137

Can u pls share rationale for lnt tech to be ur top most holding? Also why lnt tech and not lnt infotech or.any other IT company. Thanks


#138

Chanced upon an article on one of the richest businesswomen in India- turned out to be an interesting stock insight on Biocon. Will dig deeper, but clear signs that long term R&D, recent approvals, partnerships with Mylan etc can just be an inflection point for the stock. Its like all arsenals in place for the final attack- next 3 years journey can be very interesting.


#139

I had to allocate in IT sector to properly diversify. But IT sector is getting / going to be disrupted with newer technologies like automation, AI, machine learning, blockchain, cloud etc. So two stocks, one in legacy tech and other new tech would be proper. I chose infosys and ltts. Ltts is focused, shown good quarter performance and exceeded management guidance by a fair margin.


#140

I have taken a 5% position in Ashok Leyland today after price dropped by 4 %.

Its close to 52 week low, YoY sales have degrown by 10 %. However I find nothing fundamentally wrong with the company. 2nd largest CV player, no debt, good ratios available at 16 PE. Expanding operations in Bangladesh and new emission norms complied. Found risk reward favourable as its fallen 35 % from High.


#141

Negatives
Complexity of Bio Tech Jargons, USFDA stringent approval process & Biocon with 70 odd PE is turning me off…

Positives
Rest of the story as per news reports, biography of KM Shaw, R&D capability, international tie ups, approval of biosimilar sales in EU, biologic better than small molecules :wink: etc are positive triggers and extremely tempting.

VPickrs! Whats your take on Biocon and banking on the vision of one of the richest and respected self made billionaire woman!!!


(simplyraghav) #142

Well calculated move, I too added a little more of it today. What do you feel about merger of GSK and HUL ? I own HUL and feel like valuations are frothy from hereon, thus not comfortable in holding it anymore.


#143

@simplyraghav

I am just a mere spectator in this deal. It will take time for me to understand the impact of minority shareholders in this Mega Merger. Will dig deep and try to understand and will share my views… :pray:


(yudiagg) #144

If sales are down by 10%, does it not mean something has gone wrong fundamentally. How do we know that sales will recover in near future.


(Amit Jain) #145

Ashok Leyland is not a typical index scrip. It gets beaten really badly when the chips are down. It is not like TCS or HuL. Therefore, I personally would seek more margin of safety. For me, a comfy entry price would be around Rs.80 which is 2016 Lows.


(simplyraghav) #146

If you will compare April 18 number with April 17 numbers, there is 26% growth yoy. So one or two quarter of degrowth or flattish growth, though the LCV segment has shown growth yoy, doesn’t harm the fundamentals in my opinion. Also, we need to compare this degrowth the the numbers of CV sector on the whole.


(Investor_No_1) #147

Wow, has HUL now got all the brands owned by Glaxo consumer?


(Cshar) #148

Performance of CV space will.be subdued till general election, upcycle will be based on next goverment and its spending program. There is slowdown happening im auto space, 2019 will be a year of consolidation for auto, auto ancillery stocks. There is no gaurentee if PE 16 is low and its cant go down lower further, look at tata motors.


(vengama) #149

The latest fall in sales figures could be because of NBFC issues, and may continue for some more time, I assume.

Also, any thoughts on how exactly new axle norms could impact the sector going forward?


(Cshar) #150

Revised axle norms will slow down demand for CV’s. Old vehicle scrappage is also turned down by court.Saw a news in CNBC today where Cargo demand is down by 20% recently due to low consumer sentiments. Infian economy is slowing down, cement, auto, housing, paint, cement, electric cables, low cost housing, building meterial, infra, NBFC all will witness slowdown. There is shortfall of 1.3-1.5 lakh cr in fiscal targets. Only consumer staples, selected consumer descretionary, Niche sectors like food, alscohal, export, some private banks are investment grade. Consumer finance is not impacted.


(vengama) #151

some insights on the deal…