Mahesh portfolio : please guide


(maheshkumar) #21

I have reduced my holdings today ,thanks team for the valuable insight
Now my portfolio is
Cash 90%
Suzlon 5%
Lycos 5%


(Ashusharma) #22

Also you can go to Dr. Vijay Malik blog, how companies are dissected there on basis of accounting, you would like that, you can see


(maheshkumar) #23

Thanks Ashu for the suggestion


(maheshkumar) #24

Current portfolio
Finalised today

Suzlon 5%
Lycos 2%
Cash 93%

Planning to add 20 stocks in diversified sectors and caps

Thanks guys for decreasing the risk in my portfolio

Since last 1 week was not able to sleep properly because of 2 high risk stock portfolio
At least there is peace of mind now and going today to watch bahubali 2 without any tension

And I will keep on adding stocks as I learn snd understand the business and stocks

Once again thanks


(maheshkumar) #25

Bought sintex today at 18 Rs
5% of portfolio
Demerger will be helpful was the rationale


(sambandham82) #26

My recommendations:

1) To understand market nature :
The Most Important Thing - Howard Marks
2) To understand Valuation : Financial Statement Analysis and Security Valuation - Stephen H.Penman
3) To understand undervalued stock picking for superior returns than growth stocks: Deep Value - Tobias Carlisle.
4)


(maheshkumar) #27

thanks sambandham82 for the guidance


(maheshkumar) #28

After reading a lot on wind sector ,suzlon and turnaround companies I sold all my othe stocks and invested in suzlon 100% at price of 19
I find a very limiting downside with multibagger returns from here
I think my money will remain safe here
Does any one has any suggestion
Please guide
Thanks


(Karan Sharma) #29

Hi Mahesh, I have gone through this thread and see that you have started investing in equities recently. Investing is not just about selecting the right company but also about allocation. Amongst your equities portfolio what i see is that you have a very concentrated portfolio. Apart from many of the books recommended on picking correct stocks I would recommend you to read on asset allocation as well. That will help you in creating a process and then scaling it up.
For your current situation I would recommend you to diversify much more as you are holding just one company which also I would believe has many variables which I would expect you to not know of right now. For starters I would recommend starting with a diversified non correlated basket of companies and as your expertise on the subject matter keeps improving further you will be able to practice concentrated investing much more better.
Also with regards to turnarounds diversification is much more helpful because there are many unknown variables that could derail the turnaround process. Its better to spread the money across unrelated ideas.

Regards,

Karan


(maheshkumar) #30

Thanks sir for the guidance
I am trying to find out opportunities to diversify my portfolio but yet to come across few ideas with limited downside
Manappuram is looking good in this frothy market
I invested 50% of my pf in it today
I read one up on the street by Peter lynch and read the five rules for successful investing this month and planning to read 2 books every month
Thank u all guys for cr acting such an awesome platform where knowledge is shared by all great investors


(maheshkumar) #31

I am now in
1) suzlon 50% of pf
wind energy which has tailwind till 2022
Suzlon is lying at very low valuations in spite of great turnaround
2)manappuram
Great story lying at low valuations
In both very low risk of losing money from here in long term
And possible 10-30% annual return

Now I need infrastructure stock and 1 turnaround stock to complete my pf

My plan is max 4 stocks
Minimum 1 stock if very much convinced


(maheshkumar) #32

After trying lot of permutations and combinations I realised that finding undervalued stocks in such market is hard
So during recent correction I restructured my portfolio
Now I have 99% of manappuram at 82rs
1% of multiple tracking stocks (50 total )

My rationale was manappuram corrected because of demonetisation
Their Nbfc business will turnaround post demonetisation
And affordable housing will help them
And 2% dividend yield will cushion the downside

With this approach my portfolio jumped by 30% in a month

My plan is to search such opportunities and grab 30% returns

I request seniors and all colleagues to please guide

I am happy for constructive criticism

I am a newbie and trying my best to learn

Thanks a lot


(Alphin) #33

Problem with such high concentration is two fold.

  1. You risk being affected by something beyond your control. You never know when another demon hits you and stock plunges by 50%. Then u get stuck with it.

  2. High concentration makes you take emotional decisions and be influenced by crowd thinking. You are more likely to sell low and recover money rather than hold it out with 1 stock.

If you see less opportunity in markets, take out 80% of holding put it on liquid funds get 7-8% sure return on it and have good sleep for 1-2 years. On a long enough timeline, you will get enough opportunities to enter into quality stocks, or better yet learn so much about the markets that you can find opportunity in even such overvalued markets.

I agree with ur concentration approach, but get atleast 4 high conviction stocks.


(maheshkumar) #34

Thanks a lot alphin
True it looks risky
Trying my best to find out more ideas to invest
Also learning in free time
It's a steep learning curve but its getting interesting and addictive


(maheshkumar) #35

Sir read
One Up On Wall street by Peter Lynch
And common stocks and uncommon profit
Now planning to read
and Five Rules for successful investing by Pat dorsey

Thanks for the book list


(maheshkumar) #36

I sold my 90% of my manappuram
I think concentrated portfolio is very risky so now I am planning for 10 stocks with 10% of pf each

Now my holding is
1) manappuram 10%
2) Hdfc bank 10%
3) Karnataka bankn10%
4) liberty shoes 10%
5) wonderla 10%
6) vrl logistics 10%
7)Jain irrigation 10%

Still searching for 3,stocks

I will post my reasoning details
As I am a very small investor with my salary as a main source of income
I have only put that money in stocks which I will not need for next 10 years
Being a salaried person with high inflation rate I find investing in stocks as the only source to get some money by retirement

Also in such a high valuation market I am finding it hard to calculate the fair value
But trying my best with this amazing team of valuepicker
It's keeping me motivated
Thanks a lot valuepicker
Thanks a lot valuepicker team
U r all stars


(Shiv Kumar) #37

you could look for an infrastructure stock like Indian Hume Pipes or ITD
Cementation.


(ankit_jsr) #38

It was great reading this thread. I can see the learning that has impacted your thinking as well as your portfolio. You started from having a risky portfolio with two extremely risky stocks to one which looks kind of balanced (I am not an expert so won't commit to saying if it is optimum etc.). Your dedication in learning the skill and art of investing is admirable. Long-term investment requires a lot of patience and emotional indifference, after conducting a proper due-diligence. The detailed research is just a start. The real test comes when you have to convince yourself of your own story (once you are sure you have done a thorough research). I can see that you have started reading some books on the research part. You should also read on the role of behavioral aspects in the markets. Something like Thinking fast and slow or Black Swan could be great reads. That being said, this forum is one of the best any investor can follow. Great community and excellent in-depth posts.


(maheshkumar) #39

Thanks for the guidance sir
So far I learned few things
Most important is finding undervalued stocks with good growth and honest management
And second is contollng the emotions in tough time which comes only if we have in depth knowledge of the stock story

And as prof bakshi says shit can happen and even Colgate market can get in trouble by newbies like patanjali

I am tying to find stocks with fair value with the help of all the valuepicker team to whom I will be indebted forever


(Tushar) #40

Hi Mahesh,

You can also go through the thread http://forum.valuepickr.com/t/towards-a-capital-allocation-framework/504 to make sure you are doing right allocation. In my opinion, you seem to be on right track moving from 2 stocks in beginning to 10 stocks now. Given thread will give you right direction for allocation.