Mahesh portfolio : please guide


(maheshkumar) #1

Hi
I am new to this forum
I thought of sharing my portfolio
I would love to get views and comments on my portfolio
I am a middle age salaried person
Planning to invest for long term

My current portfolio

Suzlon 50% - Invested at Rs 19.6
Lycos internet 50% invested at Rs 7

Investment rationale

  1. suzlon
    Possible turnaround
    Government encouraging green energy
    They are decreasing the debt
    Top player in the wind sector
    Risk - huge debt .wind tariffs going down,past history of management not god

  2. lycos internet
    Undervalued stock
    They have lycos sports app
    Lycos internet of things
    possible turnaround if they can pay the 38 million dollar in daum settlement
    Their revenue from advertising and brightcom is good
    Management interview looks positive
    Risk - Hyderabad based company with bankruptcy case in USA with debt 38 million dollars

Thanks a lot


(ramanhp) #2

Two companies in your portfolio and both have been plagued by issues of high debt and poor performance. The future at best looks uncertain. Are you convinced of their future or hopeful?


(maheshkumar) #3

@ramanhp
I am more convinced about the suzlon
It's on right path as per my understanding

Regarding lycos ,it's at all time low and I think once they settle daum issue it will get rerated

I am expecting 2-3 times return over next 12 months
And 3-4 times return over 2 years


(maheshkumar) #4

Suzlon
It has huge capacity

Mr sanghvi from sun has 0.20 percent stake in company

Debt is decreasing

And current government is keen for green energy
And with global warming I guess in future it will be manadatory for all countries to have some green energy

Wind tariff falling and that's a bit disappointing
Oil prices going up so that's good for alternate source of energy
Wind ,solar etc


(sta) #5

Hi
You are only looking at the upside. If the market falls then the companies with high debt high pledge will come under the brunt first. Just my take. I am a novice


(maheshkumar) #6

Thanks @ramanhp and @ Sta
Thanks for the views
Hmm,I never thought about downside ,Now i think I should decrease my investment in these 2 stocks
Today I need to study valuepicker picks to find out companies with limited downside


(maheshkumar) #7

After going through the valuepicker posts on suzlon and lycos
My conviction for suzlon is getting strong

But the lycos conviction is going down
I couldn't understand the problem with lycos ,as it's generating cash to buy different businesses
It paid 15 million dollars to buy lycos then why everyone is mentioning that the cash is not true and the accounts are cooked


(maheshkumar) #8

Can someone please suggest a small book to understand the basics of financial statement analysis


(ajay patel) #9

I already invested in both since more than 3 year..had more trust on suzlon specially with new govt initiative and management actions. V can see in recent result best ever after 2008...
Lycos I found well but never understand, how can continuous better result could never appriciat the share price..? Is there antvscam..never heard.I expact one day to rise if continued to perform as it is....hope for best.


(nowin) #10

You have invested in 2 high risk stocks. Although suzlon is less risky of the 2 , starting of your investment journey with 2 high risk stocks may not be a good Idea. As a new investor i suggest you start with a good company which is historically into profits ,has a good management (meaning promoters have a good track record).

In case any of these stock picks fail , the losses will disappoint you and you may actually shy away from equity investing. Pick up some safer bets to start with , try to be in profits (even if low). Its is advisable to have a good balanced portfolio eg :- have a mix of different sectors , have a mix of large cap , mid cap and small cap , and so on.


(Raj Panda) #11

Please provide some background, for how long have you been investing.
How have your returns been in the past ?
How did you come to decide to own this kind of portfolio :slight_smile:
Is it backed by your past performance.
Given your expectation, you seem to be in some sort of dream run, like Virat Kohli :wink: ?.


(Yogesh Sane) #12

International Financial Statement Analysis, 3ed (CFA Institute Investment Series) Paperback – 2016


(maheshkumar) #13

Thanks a lot Sta,Raman , ajay ,novin,and raj and Yogesh

Regarding background,I am in a 9-5 clearical job
I have less knowledge about financials
I am in 30s ,having a home loan ,paid 20%
Currently have 50% cash and 50% in equities
And in equities 50% in lycos and 50% in suzlon

This is first investment in equities
Last year I invested in large cap mutual fund but the returns were not good
This year I read on few blogs to invest in beaten down stocks to get a great return
Hence I searched for the two most beaten down stocks with possible upturn
Then I came across suzlon and lycos
I don't have much understanding about the financials and I am in process of learning the fundamentals and technicals


(manish dwivedi) #14

2 cents. I started investing at the peak of the market in 2008. My cue was my friend who started in 2007 and made a huge run as market had doubled in just 1 year. I happened to invest in some less known businesses and some widely popular ones. Bady burnt my fingers as both the types had a vertical fall. Learned a few lessons.

In my very humble opinion, we may be nearing the 2008 stage. Why I says so? I am seeing almost all the coffee table discussions are stocks discussions these days.


(Raj Panda) #15

Please spend more time to gain knowledge is all i can say.
Good Luck.


(maheshkumar) #16

Thanks Manish and Raj
I have started learning about stocks basics on valuepicker
It's Very well written ,easy to understand
Thanks Donald sir and the team for this valuable platform


(Hitesh Patel) #17

hi

I would suggest you should first read two books

One Up On Wall street by Peter Lynch
and Five Rules for successful investing by Pat dorsey.

Both are not very difficult to understand esp the one by Lynch.

Both available online on amazon, flipkart etc and together should not cost more than a 1000 Rs.
You can get good investing knowledge out of these books and that should propel you on your investing journey.


(Nolan) #18

Hi,
I would recommend three books for you for starters.

Secrets For Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets - Stan Weinstein (for technical analysis)
The Five Rules for Successful Stock Investing - Pat Dorsey and Joe Mansueto (for fundamental analysis)
How To Make Money In Stocks - William J O'neil (About having Systems for investing/trading)

About equity investing, my advice to you is 1) Since you have financial obligations, start with only that portion of your corpus which you can afford to loose. 2) Every cheap stock is not a good investment opportunity. 3) Do your complete research before you begin investing and not after you have taken a position

About your portfolio, my advice is - 'Do not try catching a falling knife'. Lycos is in a long-term downtrend. Don't try predicting its bottom. Instead, let the stock bottom out, form a base and show a healthy uptrend before you invest. You can hold Suzlon for long-term for good returns.

Lastly, my advice you to stay away from equities until you gain decent understanding of it. Try parking your money in mutual funds. Your returns were moderate because large caps did not do well in last few years compared to midcaps and smallcaps. MFs take a long-term commitment (5-10 years) to give you decent returns. Invest in a 5-star rated multi-cap diversified fund if you are unsure. You can research MFs in valueresearch or moneycontrol.

Good luck!


(Bheeshma Sanghani) #19

Lastly i would recommend prof bakshis phenomenal blog. It has played a lasting influence in my journey. In my opinion it is THE gold standard as far as investing goes. I cant think of any literature that is even remotely near to the content in his blog. I am forever indebted to him for introducing me to the fascinating world of investing.


(maheshkumar) #20

Thanks a lot Hitesh sir ,Nolan sir and bheeshma sir

Thank u very much for the advice and guidance to the novice investor

I willl start with the books and blogs u all mentioned and start building the basic fundamental knowledge before jumping on the field and get stumped in an attempt to hit a sixer on the very first ball of my investing career