In my opinion, we’re quite far from EV posing a realistic threat to CNG as much as EV+CNG posing a disruptive threat to petrol, diesel and LPG.
Recently govt announced 10K CNG Stations will be added over the next few years so clearly the policy thrust is still there.
On top of it, I read Maruti chairman saying CNG is better and more cost efficient compared with EV for now because the infra & technology both exist on a scale for automakers to profitably sell CNG vehicles. Hyundai launched its Santro in CNG fitted version as well.
There was a lot of interest in the CGD licenses also.
On top of it, LNG terminals, which import liquid gas and convert it to gas are coming up in droves. Petronet LNG has successfully tested LNG to be used as an auto fuel.
So all of this sectoral activity is not to waste in the near term & there are definitely opportunities prevalent.
The goal remains the same: a quarter of India’s energy needs being met by Natural Gas. Mumbai & Delhi being the most densely populated areas not just in India but the world themselves present fantastic opportunity for CGDs.
I see IGL being very proactive & innovative in capitalising on these opportunities. For eg. to kind of co-opt its upcoming disruptive challenge, IGL is creating space for EV charging infra within its stations. It is buying stake in unlisted CGDs to expand its area of monopoly. Then it started dealer owned & operated model recently to speed up setting up of new CNG stations. Discounts on first PNG bill/EMI Conversion of upfront charges are all aimed at boosting enrolment. Now it’s planning to set up mini CNG Stations in residential colonies to minimise long queues.
I think MGL is not very actively promoting its business as much as IGL. I’m willing to give the Mgmt some more bandwidth to execute as it says the Mumbai market is highly underpenetrated & there is room to grow f I like the economics of the business . Maybe it can try cloning strategies from IGL or look for whatever else works.
In the overall energy mix, there can’t be a single source which takes prevalence over all others. India’s future energy mix will have Natural gas, electric/reneweable, nuclear, thermal & other non-renewable dirty fuels as well. Only thing is these dirty fuels will be replaced slowly but surely with cleaner ones & we know CNG falls in the bucket of cleaner fuels out there.
Disclosure: invested in a lot of names above and views are biased.