La Opala RG - Aspirational consumer story

(mrai74) #81

Despite being a good script, which has given good returns and has not succumbed to larger scenario across the world in current turmoil I found the management a little bit lazy in sharing / uploading SHPs. I tried contacting Mr Alok Pandey to get a SHP updated on 31st Dec 15. He has responded saying, After getting my mail they also checked the BSE/ NSE Site and found that the shareholding pattern has not been updated though it has been filed.

They contacted BSE and came to know that it would be updated within 4 to 5 Days as there is some technical problem. As regards NSE they tried to contact but unfortunately were not able to do it .

They are working on my suggestion regarding updation of shareholding pattern on their websile on Quaterly Basis. They have promised to do ot on quarterly basis and for current quarter, it might take two to three days

My investment decisions are based on information gathered from the management and I try to get the information vetted by respecting agencies / persons. Would love to share, if I get any update from management of Laopala

(mrai74) #82

The SHP updated 31st December 2015 is available… great to see interest of individual retailers increasing … although a little bit slow…

SHP updated 31st Dec15

(mrai74) #83

One major update regarding SHP dated 31st Dec 2015 : Matthews Asia Small Companies fund has acquired 582275 shares.

I did some calculation based on management guidelines, earlier quarter results & past history… I could estimate following for Q3 results, which are scheduled for 3rd Feb,

TO : 67.4 - 71.2 Cr
PAT : 17.8 - 19.2 Cr
EPS : 2.81 - 2.96

We will have the exact numbers day after tomorrow (i.e. Wednesday) & would like to compare my estimates, have I learnt something?
Please note that I am a retail investor & not an analyst hence reserve the rights to go wayward.

(Amit) #84

Strong set of number.

Sales 80.4 Cr Growth 26%
PAT 20.2 Cr Growth 44%

(mrai74) #85

Review of my estimates

TO : 80.48 Cr (est - 71.2 Cr)
PAT : 20.2 Cr (est - 19.2 Cr)
EPS : 3.64 (est - 2.96)

I feel that I missed estimating TO, which has gone beyond expectations :smile: which management have been sharing… I understand that the management commentary was a little bit conservative… Happy to note & my expectation will increase for coming quarters … good one to hold for a LONGER DURATION

(mrai74) #86

Once again the result season is showing impact on respective scripts & I tried again to apply MY MIND to calculate expected numbers based on management guidelines, earlier quarter results & past history… I could estimate following for Q4 results, which are scheduled for 13th May,

TO : 82.2 - 87.6 Cr
PAT : 18.6 - 23.1 Cr
EPS : 3.6 - 3.96

We will have the exact numbers on 13th & would like to compare my estimates, have I learnt something?
Please note that I am a retail investor & not an analyst hence reserve the rights to go wayward.

(mrai74) #87

Review of my estimates

TO : 54.8 Cr (est - 82.2 - 87.6 Cr)
PAT : 14.2 Cr (est - 18.6 - 23.1 Cr)
EPS : 2.56 (est - 3.6 - 3.96)

I have missed estimating TO, which has surprisingly gone down beyond my expectations. I feel management has failed miserably in meeting their own commitments & targets which they have been sharing in various communiques… I understand that the management team need to review their targets. With expansion of manufacturing capacity & consistent growth for last 12-16 quarters, my expectations had increased … I expect the scrip price to bear a major correction in next week, although I would still treat this as good one to hold for a LONGER DURATION and use the dips for adding quantities with more caution… to give a figure, I would wait for sub 500 levels to add more

Just got the update that the reason of drop was a labour unrest which stand resolved and we are back on track… hopefully we will have a major breakout in Q1 or Q2 results

(Rahul Girish Shah) #88

Laopala Madhupur plant labour issue resolved… News is old but as not mentioned in forum , will like to paste link for those who are unaware… productivity reduced to 1/4 th during that time.

(mrai74) #89

An inspiring input which adds to conviction of holding GEMS for longer duration, our company is one of the best who have provided multi fold returns in last 5 years… just HOLD is the key word and we may see it performing again with the same spirit… although we shouldn’t expect another 37 :slight_smile: fold return in next 5 years but I still feel the it has a long way to go & should be part of portfolio

(ishandutta2007) #90

@subashnayak_19_ if you are still holding it congrats. Only recently I came across this story. When started looking into this sector I found the overall sector has gone nowhere, yet La Opala emerged out to be a 100 bagger. Glancing over this thread I still don’t have a clue what exactly are they making which other players are not being able to and why has that sub-sector got such an explosive growth.

(Rahul Girish Shah) #91

@ishandutta2007 La opala RG manufactures as well as market its product, is the main difference . Other players were importer and marketer, Secondly la opala is very sucessful in establishing a strong brand image in indian market.

There were no compareble player till borosil acquired Hopewell this Feb. First time in so many years la opala failed to give expected Q to Q growth.(mainly due to reducing dealer/distributer margin, anticipating competition). It will be interesting to track competition between la opala/diva and larah of borosil(hopewell) in coming festive months. Continuation of anti dumping duty will only help (notification restricting china and UAE imports expires in Aug). EU court ruling upheling EU’s imposition of anti dumping on dinnerware from china will help our manufacturer’s case.

@subashnayak_19_ any views/news on current market insight about la opala vs larah will be much appreciated.

Disc: Invested , la opala forms 6th of PF

(ishandutta2007) #92

But even without Hopewell , Borosil too has been a 100 bagger in its domain.

(Rahul Girish Shah) #93

Yes , but Borosil has very low RoE and very less OPM.

Secondly out of 59 cr PBT , 58 cr comes from other income…

(mrai74) #94

La Opala RG likely to report a weak performance

Financial Express has come up with a report quoting few companies including our company to report a Weak performance in current quarter. Although its nothing new as we have seen Q1 as historically weak in-comparison to other quarters. The markets have moved higher in last few months and Laopala is just stranded stunning with no movement at all. We expect it to remain subdued till next quarter & Q2 should move it to next orbit. I would still HOLD it for a longer horizon dspite the fact, it has not delivered in last 4 quarters.

(mrai74) #95

La Opala RG Ltd Q1 results on Aug 13, 2016

A meeting of the Board of Directors of La Opala RG Ltd is scheduled to be held on August 13, 2016, to consider and approve the un-audited Financial Results of the Company for the Quarter ended June 30, 2016.

(mrai74) #96

SHP updated 30th June 2016

It feels good to see the new no of shareholders increasing with every quarter, which shows the increasing faith of retailers in the company… I observe that even FIIs holding has seen uptrend… certainly we are ready for a new upmove… let us keep fingers crossed to see new life time highs by Q2 results… The only culprit may be crucial month of Aug’16 when Anti dumping policy needs re-evaluation… hopefully it goes positive for our company and we again get multi fold returns

Would expect co-boarders to share update on Anti dumping policy ASAP

(Rahul Girish Shah) #97

Anti dumping duty notification was issued in November 2011 and is valid for 5 years.

It expires on 23 November 2016

(mrai74) #98

I digged more on this and could find that although the notification was issued on 23/11/2011 but its effective for 5 years starting 09/08/2011, when the provisional notification was issued by Govt of India

Pls refer which quotes following

‚ÄúThe anti-dumping duty imposed shall be levied for a period of five years (unless revoked, superseded or amended earlier) from the date of imposition of the provisional anti-dumping duty, that is, August 9, 2011, and shall be payable in Indian currency,‚ÄĚ the Department of Revenue has said.

Another link which gives more clarity

So the key date is hardly 2 weeks away & the period starting after that is to be watched consciously as it may impact our company either way… I am betting on positive side for our company & would add more if I get an opportunity below 500

(Rahul Girish Shah) #99

Anti-Dumping duty on opalware has been extended by one year till 8th Aug 2017.

(mrai74) #100

Good News that the Anti Dumping Policy is extended for another year

Policy update

Great relief for long term investors, hopefully the Q1 results will add more spice to our company & we can see new highs in coming weeks