KCP Ltd - undervalued cyclical company


(Vivek) #21

I dont think so, as the company will be following the accounting norms in
Vietnam .


(malayruparel) #22

Declaring of quarterly result practice is not limited to India, most of the company in world practices it. I have scan two Vietnam company financials. Vietnam airlines declares half yearly results and Manulife asset management declares quarterly results.

What stops KCP to declare its quarterly results of sugar division then?

Can anyone share company in India which has subsidy in Vietnam?

I as an investor dont prefer playing blind for approx 20% earning of company just because it is outside India.


(nikhilv) #23

thanks for the information.Its actually a good sign that without amravati activities , company is doing decent sales.I hope thats the exact reason for capex and hence we should start seeing the result from next year maybe.


(Rohinipathi) #24

Its correct that construction work is yet to start. It is very unlikely that Chandra Babu Naidu goes to elections without any construction/show piece. If you look at the history on how he functions, Hitech City in Hyderabad - built in flat 16 months, was his main show piece in his election campaign. It is no doubt that Amaravati and polavaram will be his election campaign show pieces this time.

There are zero chances that Capital city will be shifted. The current acquisition of 35,000 acres of land is done with out spending a rupee. It will be an Herculean task to anyone who tries to do this.


(1.5cr) #25

More than 90% of kcp sales comes from retail. So we dont have to worry about the amaravathi issue. Of course it would lead to huge upside and re-rating should work begin in the new capital, but Kcp can still show strong growth via capacity expansion and sugar division in vietnam. Whether or not government develops, there will still be adequate demand from around the area from retail clients. The company has been well managed throughout (except hotel, but we know that this was to protect the valuable real estate). Worst case you make 10% CAGR in this company if nothing changes and earnings grow at single digits. If we are right, and demand picks up and Kcp is able to deliver then we may see huge upside. compared to peers their multiple is very low. They have a booming sugar business and capex coming on board. Downside is opportunity cost, upside is unknown, overall its a strong company with or without amaravathi they should show decent earnings growth. Its a safe bet and the cycle is turning. Good money to be made in this company.
Also KCP are said to have strong ties with govt. they probably went forward with the capex, understanding the amaravati opportunity.
Disclosure: 5% with the intent to take it to 8% soon.


(malayruparel) #26

GST on 4 star hotel and cement has been reduced from 28 to 18. Benefits two businesses of KCP.


#27

I think cement is still 28%.


(malayruparel) #28


(Vivek) #29

I am not sure all newspaper etc reporting cement is still at 28%

Only 50 items now remain in the highest tax slab. The council unanimously retained air conditioners, washing machines, paints and cement in the 28 percent bracket, Bihar Deputy Chief Minister Sushil Modi said earlier in the day.


(malayruparel) #30

Let’s verify, this is from CNBC’s tweet…


(Tushar) #31

http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=173406

No change in Cement GST.


(malayruparel) #32

Yes, you are right. No change in cement and paint GST. Source of my information turned out to be incorrect. Thanks for pointing it out.


(v31) #33

2 similar articles

http://english.vietnamnet.vn/fms/business/189694/sugar-industry-panic-as-sales-plunge.html

http://english.vietnamnet.vn/fms/business/190366/sugar-sales-face-difficulties--association.html

The above 2 articles informing that sugar sales have been quite low in the past few months.

In fact 1 article states that "Under the ASEAN Trade in Goods Agreement (ATIGA), from 2018, there will be no cap on sugar imports from member countries, with import tax rate at just 5 per cent."
In addition, KCP has added capacity in recent months/years. This might have a negative effect on the company. However, until the sugar numbers come out (which is once a year) very difficult to take a decision based on limited information.

Disc- currently holding tracking position and looking to add


(nikhilv) #34

Dropped a mail to company investor relations and glad to receive reply.Though nothing much is revealed but still thought of sharing it -

  1. As per the requirements of companies act and SEBI (LODR) Regulations , we are publishing once in a year VIL financials. It is not feasible to publish quarterly numbers.
  2. Cement sold increased by about 15% in Quarter 1 compared to last year Q1.
  3. Regarding Container Freight Station, once all approvals are in place, the company would consider capex.

Secondly I attended concallss of Sagar and Dalmia and according to them highest cement growth area is AP and Telangana right now with 15% CAGR approx.There has been less or no work started with respect to Amravati.There are big initiatives taken on low cost housing such as 2 floor houses etc which is bringing in huge uptick.Sep Qtr will be usually lower due to rainy season.

Overall, demand looks fine for next 3-4 years.

As i write this post, the result are uploaded on BSE site -

EBIT - 5,193 from 3,166 - 64% rise QoQ although sales increased y 5% approx mostly due to other income.
I see cost of raw material is down substantially and power and fuel cost also down which is good.

need to understand whats the other income component.Its on the higher side .Any idea?


(niraj.dugar) #35

Hi

I am also invested and reviewed the results. The other income is the dividend received from the veitnam subsidiary.


(nowin) #36

http://www.bseindia.com/corporates/anndet_new.aspx?newsid=a459051b-9214-4fdc-8e09-193a88c862ad

Results are out. Other income has dividend of 38 crores.cement revenue has gone down. Engineering and hotel continue to be in loss.
If dividend income is not considered , this quater is actually in loss?Please correct me if my conclusion is wrong


(Vivek) #37

Even if the dividend income is not accounted for the company is still in profit, how did you arrive at a loss? Without dividend income revenue is 250cr and expense is 237cr before taxes , so its still in 13 cr profit before taxes.


(Sagar Bhadury) #38

So without considering the dividend , revenues were up by 25% and Profit up by 85% YOY with the corresponding qrtr last year. I think the results are very good. I see a re-rating in the stock.


(vpwadhwa) #39

The way to interpret the dividend is that the capex in Vietnam is over and cash flows will now come into India every year. This will be invested in the cement plant expansion, which will start creating additional cash flows in 2018. Losses on Hotel front are also decreasing. Engineering is the only drag. Numbers in engineering are volatile, and any triggers there could rerate the stock substantially.


(1.5cr) #40

They report the sugar business numbers at year end, it is good if they do so every quarter as it will make it easier for the company to be noticed. We will know more during the concall.