IOLCP - Synergy in operations made monopoly in product integration


(ridesai) #64

Hi Raminder,
Would like to know what is the manuf cost of Vinati Organics for IBB? Would love to know what is for IOL Chem too as without numbers we can’t come on any conclusion. BTW, both Vinati and IOLCP are selling IBB in market. Vinati price is 1333 and that too 2 fv.
Invested recently in July…


(ridesai) #65

Friends, I feel the market has smelled exponential growth in bottomline as the topline is going to be atleast Rs 1300 cr min, F19. That is the reason the stock even in ASM is going in circuits and I feel the np will be so good that it will take care of debts down the line. That gives reply for how the debt will be taken care of.
On the top of all these parameters to find the valuations, the Mcaps is still below the sales which is a huge positive for me and one reason to invest in early July this year. Mcap of any Co is what we pay the price to buy. As stock market always climb up on wall of worries so do stocks too.
My view can be biased as I am invested.


(ridesai) #66

(Raminder) #67

Hi Ridesai,
You can have the processing costs details from Screener.in and do a comparison. I give more emphasis to cost of material consumed ratio and any improvement in it signifies manufacturing efficiencies . But in IOC case so far it seems to be increased volume adding to the bottom line . However what is encouraging is the additional capacities coming up at very low cost and that too from internal accruals. Also 2018 financials are quite cleaned up and may soon see debt repaymnt at acclerated pace.

Invested.


(ridesai) #68

Thanks for the reply.
They have excellent R&D plants and have API’s in pipeline . Future looks very promising.
Backward Integration Plant for Ibuprofen is the trigger as the cost will not go up much which will translate in huge profit I feel.
In IBB, they are second to Vinati in capacity and if that is taken care for cost I think , it is on a way to become a huge mulibagger to me.


([email protected]) #69

Can you please let me know the capacity of Vinati, I was under the impression IOLCP has the largest capacity of IBB.

Disclaimer : Invested


(ridesai) #70

Friends,Sales went up in IOL Chem and touched 1000 Cr last year. Now there are many Cos whose sales are huge but can be from trading biz.
I am a great fan of sales. If there is little sales and Co is there for more then a decade or two , then I feel what they were doing all these years?
I always like Cos whose Mcap is below sales. Because that says that valuation is cheap. Ofcourse one need to look at products portfolio and future outlook but I always like Cos whose Mcap is less then Sales. I have seen many Cos Mcap has gone through the roof and still people are ready to buy them. Mcap is the price we pay for the Co, so unless one is convinced about the exponential growth rate of the Co , one can’t keep paying 2 times, 3 times or 5 times and more as Mcap to sales ratio.
That was one reason I went for IOL Chem and I also have investment in 20 Microns. 2o Microns has sales of 400 Cr and a speciality Chem Co and Nano particles. I think no one is in Nano Speciality in India.
See, 1000 Cr sales and 400 Cr are not easy to achieve and that too of real sales and not trading. The debt can be high but if Co and management is doing right thing that will be taken care of obviously. In both IOL Chem and 20 Microns I feel that debt will be taken care of and hence has taken stake.20 Microns Mcap is also less then sales. I am not saying that one will always win doing it but atleast we know we are not paying high.
I like India Glycols too but it is too high for me. I am not a deep pocket guy so I buy below 100 and try to find multibagger.
In both the Cos I discussed here, the NP has been the highest ever in the history of Co of this June qr and the bottomline is moving up every qr and that says that Cos are on right path.
See, it is all about taking a bet. We see all the positives and negatives and then we buy. As Peter Lynch once very rightly said, out of 10 stocks only 2-3 will become multibagger.
I have seen master investor like Nemish Shah who has invested in Super Spinning , Investment and Precision Casting , Rico Auto( which is now up) ,Pricol etc which remained dormant for years. So there is no full proof strategy to find a multibagger, We just buy and wait for the future to unfold. We can just take bet.
I don’t try to look too much of parameters.If you can’t take risk, forget multibagger returns. .
So want to be safe, buy A gr stock. Want to be much much safer, buy A gr MNC stocks. No brainer.
I have seen in recent runups, a Co doing sales of barely 50 Cr and is going at 150. The Mcap is 2 times ot 3 times of sales. Now the first question I ask about such Cos is, how much time it will take to reach 100 Cr sales? Can it double in 2 yrs? Then how much yrs will it take to go to 200 Cr? So, is it good to pay Rs 150 to buy a 50 Cr sales Co?


(Ayush Mittal) #71

Looking at the export data below, it seems the company has been a major beneficiary of the shortage:

As per recent interview of Vinati Organics, it seemed that the BASF plant is further delayed and may start by Q4FY19 only (vs expectation of September earlier)

Negative - the history of IOL hasn’t been great and there is still high debt.


(ridesai) #72

I know debt is still high and that is why it was not discounted over 10 p/e ever. But the recent movement in price says a diff story. The Trident as a gr is not liked by the market.
Let us see how it pans out this qr and then the next.qr. Keeping my finger crossed. They have some API’s and drugs coming up too and they recently got USFDA clearance couple of years back and that is a good positive for me.I like stock that are under owned.


(ukdube) #75

Great Q2-Expect PAT 130 cr this year.
https://www.moneycontrol.com/stocks/reports/iol-chemicalspharmaceuticals-announcement-under-regulation-30-lodrnewspaper-publication-13288721.html


(Ayush Mittal) #76

Updated chart:

image


(Friendly Vpice) #77

Can you please provide from which above data has been taken. Earlier, Zauba used to provide such data, but that site data has not been updated since 2016.


(Ayush Mittal) #78

We have integrated the above on Screener.in. The data has been sourced/collated from several department of commerce/ministry websites


(zain) #79

Is it possible to use the above feature for a normal registered user of screener.in ? If yes please give the steps to retrieve the data.


(Sarabjeet Singh) #80

@zain: u need a premium subscription of screener i.e. screener gold to get this feature.

Meanwhile one of VP members have developed another tool which seems to source data from similar database for export/import prices, you can use that till that is free

https://phreakonomics.in/export-import/micro-individual?startDate=2000-04-01&endDate=2018-12-01&currency=inr&hscode_commodity=2050&type=exports&consolidation=month


(Harshit Goel) #81

Latest credit rating report of IOLCP. Care revised the rating from BBB- to BBB+.

Regards
Harshit

Disc: Not Invested. Tracking.


(sachit) #82

Is there a way to track international ibuprofen spot prices?


(ridesai) #83

This post was flagged by the community and is temporarily hidden.


(Parul) #85

Dear All,

I have been tracking IOL Chemicals since few months. I am a novice to the share market and based on my tracking I have prepared a Report on IOL CP. All the members are kindly welcome to comment upon my working and help me in guiding so that I can improve my working.

Note: I have invested small amount in this share.

RESEARCH REPORT IOLCP.pdf (699.0 KB)


(Prasadkumaresan) #86

The BASF plant in Texas is supposed to open up sometime in September then pushed to december. How are u saying that it is not going to open up in near future.
If my understanding is correct even if it opens up the supply demand mismatch will continue to stay but the prices of ibuprofen may cool down a bit.
And currently the prices are higher for me to invest.
Please mention what is your target .
The BASF plant was closed only due to a technical glitch I think