Indian Microfinance Sector and the companies in the sector

CREDITACCESS touches all time high of 596. Seems this MNC MFI is finally catching attention. Co wants to focus on traditional MFI business only and avoided even applying for SFB licenses thus avoiding all the expenses involved in setting up of SFB bank & branches.

Very few sectors going at 50% in todays market & MFI amongst the few. credit bureaus seem to have a positive impact on this otherwise unsecured lending.But as CS Ghosh of bandhan said for first time they went the corporate lending way to ILFS for 400 crore & had to write off the entire amount.An average rural retail borrower is God fearing and far more honest then an average corp borrower.

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A nice report by HDFC on the sector in itā€™s IPO note on Credit Access Grameen :

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Whatā€™s going to be the impact of recent floods on business of MFIs operating in affected states?

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A very good stats from CSL Annual Report

On MSME lending

MSMEs face
challenges to access timely and adequate finance.
According to International Finance Corporation
estimates, the potential demand for Indiaā€™s MSME
finance is about USD 370 billion as against the current
credit supply of USD 139 billion. The major challenge
MSME face while borrowing funds is credit appraisal
largely in informal sector. NBFCs are gaining share in
MSME lending space due to inability of banks to lend to
them in absence of sufficient credit information. Share of
NBFCs have increased from 13% in Dec 2013 to 21% in
Dec 2018.

Share of Pvt Banks and NBFC have been rising till Dec 18 (due to reduced risk taking ability of PSU Banks)

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MFIN and Sa-Dhan SROs for the MFI industry adopt new Responsible Lending Code which now includes all banks, SFBs, non-MFI NBFCs. While NBFC-MFIs will still follow the 2 MFIs per borrower rule, others will follow 3 lenders per borrower but the borrowing limit of 1 lac per borrower stays the same for all.

Any loans availed towards meeting education and medical expenses shall be excluded while arriving at the total indebtedness of a
customer.

This was adopted yesterday in the Annual national conference. This will be helpful in containing risks in the sector. As per my knowledge good SFBs and Banks were already making use of the credit bureau data while lending to the segment.

With change in designation of Bandhan and other SFBs from MFIs approximately 60% of MFI industry loan book had changed classification and left the door open for future stress in the sector. The only data missing now from credit bureauā€™s databases are now that of SHGs, which are a considerable amount of the industry (~87000 cr) and have higher NPAs (~5%) as on FY19 end, and the informal lending sector.

These rules will not apply to individual lending products which have been left at the discretion of the lending institution.

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I have done some rough work on the TAM data for the MFI sector based on a few assumptions on household data and loan outstanding figures.

TAM.xlsx (14.3 KB)

This is just one of the ways to guesstimate the market size. Sharing this here to get different POVs from others looking at this space. I have provided the assumptions, references in the respective cell.

I know this is far from perfect, but such is the nature of this industry. It is impossible to know unique loan account data unless you get into credit bureau data. Even then there is opaqueness from SHG bank linked programs and unorganized money lenders. Thus I have tried to be conservative in my assumptions but even then this model is far from complete.

As a comparable, Mr. Ravi Dharamshi of ValueQuest estimates the opportunity in next India to be of 30 lac cr. He, however, includes MSME lending and affordable housing to the mix.

If there are any queries, discrepancies, or general discussion related to this please do reach out here. It will be a good learning opportunity for all of us.

PS:

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SIDBI in a collaboration with Equifax (one of the credit bureaus) has released these Microfinance Pulse Reports on the industry. It has good industry level data and should be helpful in answering the questions of borrower/geographic concentration, borrower over indebtedness, default rates etc.

The most recent issue has a good overview of the state of West Bengal as well.

PS: On page 19 of the 1st report is this table,

I believe these concentration figures are misleading, we should be comparing the number of active borrowers by the no. of households (HH) instead of the population.

As we know that the industry primarily lends to women, so each HH should ideally account for one loan account. The report is not clear whether these are unique borrowers or not. In case they are not unique the concentration figures will come down.

Assuming on average each HH is comprised of 4.8-4.9 people. This is the factor by which the concentration figures will increase by.

It is the same case as with life insurance policies, most HHs just need one. In my previous post of TAM, I had estimated that India has around 28 cr or 280 mn HH. Outstanding LI policies are around 300 mn. Not all of these HHs have the surplus to insure themselves. (not my idea, taken from a renowned investorā€™s/fund managerā€™s interview whose name I cannot recollect).

So the concentration figure by HH could be 5x what is reflected in the table. However, this is not the complete picture. Just the borrower per HH figure does not reflect that each HH is having their credit needs met. A HH could be in need of 1 lac total credit to uplift from poverty through business ventures, health crisis, education etc. and the borrower counted could only be availing a portion of that amount.

We would have to go into more granular data to ascertain the penetration in this industry.

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good read

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Another run on MFI ?

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a good post on Credit Access

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Can anyone share the PDF version of the earnings call transcript of Creditaccess Grameen (past 3-4 quraters)ā€¦ i have tried accessing it through their website. they have a request over email feature but i never get the analysts transcripts

you can access from NSE/BSE for all listed companies. below you can find for Creditaccess Grameen. at least I can see one in Nov 2019
https://www.bseindia.com/corporates/ann.html?scrip=541770

Thanks @babuchit ā€¦ seems on BSE they have updaated only the H1 transcriptsā€¦ but havent done for the latest quarterā€¦ have dropped a mail to the investor relations teamā€¦ awaiting response

More IPOs as I think all of small finance banks needs to list by FY21. The rule looks to be that ā€œAll Small finance banks with a net worth of more than ā‚¹500 crore were mandated by the central bank to list within three years of launching operations.ā€ I think only listed now is AU and Ujjivan SFB. Equitas SFB under process as is many more like ESAF, Utkarsh, Janalakshmi, Suryoday and Fincare. Others are Capital SFB (only networth of 250 crore as of Dec 19, so not yet near deadline for IPO) , and North East SFB (Networth less than 250 crore) making it a total of 10 SFBs and I am not sure if they are with networth more than 500 crore or not. Any one has a comparative study among these SFBs to evaluate which one can grow fast with good quality.

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My analysis on CreditAccess Grameen

ESAF SFB IPO

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