Hitesh portfolio


(Amit) #3038

How do you see PEL? Some breakout today after long consolidation?

What do you think PEL from a techni funda perspective for long term?

Thanks.


(Harshad Mehta) #3041

Dear Mr. Hitesh,

What’s your view on ICICI Prudential and Rallis India from an investment perspective of about 4-5 years. I believe both could be multi-baggers in the years to come. Thanks in advance !!


(Hitesh Patel) #3042

@harshadmehta

I track and like rallis india. Icici pru can also be interesting but i dont have a lot of knowledge of insurance companies so dont know where to slot it.

Rallis has promised a lot since past few quarters but hasn’t delivered fully but i think around 200 a lot of these disappointments are priced in.


(Hitesh Patel) #3043

@aammiitt2

I dont have access to my charts as I am on vacation but I think after a brief correction PEL has made a breakout again so it looks headed higher.


(suhagpatel) #3044

@hitesh2710 ji, what is your view on L&T technology services (LTTS) and Sterlite Technology?

LTTS had no takers during the IPO but has caught fancy of market off late and company is one of the leading E&RD companies in the world with presence in the niche areas like IoT, Robotics, Smart Offices and transportation. With upcoming opportunities in 5G and Automotive i feel they have lot of leg room to grow.

Sterlite Technology even though costly at present is a pure data play considering the data consumption boom.

Kindly share your views.

Regards,
Suhag


(Milind) #3045

Hi Hitesh,

Hikal ltd came with bit good set of numbers but there interest cost increased and they keep talking about investing heavily as they see demand picking up. Do you still track Hikal?

Hester Bio-science came with the good set of number. Do you track it?

Your views would be really helpful.

Thanks,
Milind


(draveshia) #3046

Hi hitesh
Am a newbie struggling with valuations.
Just read Pat Dorsey. How Does DCF method consider reserves and surplus in valuating company


(Niranjan Shetty) #3047

Hi @hitesh2710

Had a couple of queries.

  1. Do you think the EW count for Avanti has changed from what you initially thought? (the B wave of A-B-C isn’t quiet apparent?) If so could you share your views on it?

  2. From an overall market perspective it seems like we are heading towards a top (all the macros turning sour, interest rates firming up both local and global, high valuations, narrow leadership in select stocks) , the only thing missing is the euphoria. Would love to know what your EW charts / technical views for major indices look like.

Thank you for taking the time :slight_smile:

CHeers!
Niranjan


(Hitesh Patel) #3048

@niranjan13

Avanti as you mentioned is not showing a typical B wave of an A-B-C correction. But as in life, in charts also we dont get everything perfect.:slight_smile: But my guess is that post the fall from 1200 to a low of 852 in March 2018, A might have been completed. After that it went up to 1000 in a swift upmove in a small a-b-c formation. And then what is going on can be a C wave down which i guess might take out the earlier lows in region of 390 or so. Its a wild guess only but thats how I see it. People are still gung ho about the stock and there is no apathy, disgust which we find in stocks forming bottoms. So maybe some more time to go before cherry picking.

Regarding overall markets I think we might be heading towards a top. A lot of factors seem to be on the verge of converging in next few months. Rising interest rates, rising dollar, and crude (in Indian rupees), state elections in December and finally the big Loksabha elections in May 2019. I think a combination of few of these could be too much for markets to sustain at such high levels


(Hitesh Patel) #3049

@malthankar,

Hikal has shown decent numbers since past few quarters after having flattered to deceive for a couple of years. I had bought Hikal before the split happened some time back. Exited recently after the run up as I dont consider it a a great company. Its a good company having a good time.

I dont track Hester.

@suhagpatel, I dont track LTTS. Sterlite technology does look interesting looking at the data boom. Even other fibre optic players like Vindhya tele etc look interesting though I havent looked at any of them too closely.


(Manoj) #3051

Hello @hitesh2710 sir,

I bought Symphony during its recent fall. But it is showing decline in stock price. I have around 25% of my portfolio but due to this portfolio is in red. I could have restricted myself not to expose more than 10 to 15%. But seeing company sustainable growth and management; thought it will be good for long term.

How do you see company future growth after its recent acquisition? Should anyone consider this to be a long term investment by considering cooler business?


(Hitesh Patel) #3052

@manu1rock,

Symphony has had a sharp fall from 2000 odd levesl to current levels of 1000 odd. Part of is due to lacklustre June quarter results. It has faltered in delivering good results in what is traditionally its best quarter. When a company which quotes at very high valuations fails to live up to its expectations, it undergoes sharp de rating and thats exactly whats happening with Symphony. Same thing happened to other market darlings like Avanti, Kitex and so on.

Coming to your dilemma, I think you could go through the latest Annual Report, recent concall post the June quarter results and then decide whether company can reclaim its lost growth trajectory. If the answer is affirmative then it makes sense to hold on and if you are not convinced about growth potential of the company then it makes sense to be dispassionate and sell. I dont track it too closely so cant comment but there is no better learning than doing it yourself. All the resources I mentioned are available on company website (annual report) and researchbytes (concall). I think this exercise would help you in future decision making as well.

Even if one has to sell off if the thesis has not gone according to plan it should not be a matter of shame. We all get things wrong off and on. One has to consider it as a step taken on the learning curve.


(Manoj) #3053

Thank you sir. Surely will go through these. Definitely this is learning for me and make decision in my future buying.


(Milind) #3054

Thanks Hitesh for your views.

I was just going through magma finance and it seems company is meeting many MF and Investor company these days. Are they trying to raise money(May not as earlier they raised already) or making investor aware of their business and sharing company future prospects that may create interest in these investors, may boost share price in future if these investor become interested.
How do you see these kind of developments. Your views would be really helpful. Many company keep doing this like Shemaroo etc.

I know when MRSS meet with the investors their share price got crashed. seemed me like investor came to know something that was not explicit earlier…

Regards,
Milind


(Hitesh Patel) #3055

Regarding Magma meeting MF and Investor groups I would not attach too much importance to this stance of the company. It has been doing it since a long time. If it were doing it after not having met any of the HNI/MF guys for a long time and projecting big rosy pictures I would be worried.

Currently markets are worried about rising interest rates and the ability of these lending companies to pass on higher rates to borrowers without too much of a lag. Plus an abnormal jump in interest too suddenly can give rise to higher NPAs.

In the concall the management has maintained its earlier stance of gradual improvement in AUM and working on improving asset quality. The numbers seem to reflect that management seems to be walking the talk. But I see that inspite of good numbers for most lenders/NBFCs markets are not too excited about them and have largely given most of them a thumbs down in terms of price movement. Whether this is a change in trajectory for the overall trend of these companies or just a pause before resumption of uptrend needs to be seen.


(Rudresh) #3056

Hi Hiteshji,
What are Ur views on Satin credit care? Since couple of months their loans product are getting upgraded in hordes. With these upgrade in the rising interest scenario, their interest rate vl remain constant r might raise marginally in worst case.
The Mgmt has guided cagr of 30-40% growth.
Their NPA has come down drastically n collection is almost 99%. They have diversified into other states as well as spreading their product basket with MSMEs n Housing. Their tie up with Indusind too taking off very well. With this hindsight, can’t v think bottom in place unless in the forth coming election government dole out populist measure like loan waive off again which might hamper their NPA.


(prachi) #3057

Hi Hitesh,

Just wanted to know your views on indian chemical industry. As we are hearing a lot about Chinese chemical industry shutting down and demand for the same is shifting towards indian company.

I was just going through Aarti industries and Transpec Industries and seems to me both may come with good results because of chinese industry issue… do you track any chemical company?

I feel same happened with HEG where electrode demand shifted to india and may be same things for chemical industry may happen

Thanks for your help

Regards,
Prachi


(Hitesh Patel) #3058

@prachi, Chemical industry is on a roll mainly because of disruption in China due to closure of a lot of plants due to environmental concerns. While the popular view is that this disruption is likely to stay for long another view is that knowing the Chinese entrepeneurship, it might not be long before they make a comeback.

I attended Trasnpek AGM and heard some pretty strong bullish comments from a usually conservative management. Aarti Inds management is already on record stating their upgraded guidance. But both companies are somewhat niche companies and hence are in a strong position for near to medium term. Both have long term order bookings and hence look good.


(Hitesh Patel) #3059

@Rudresh, I dont track satin too closely so not much by way of any views.


(Shiv Kumar) #3060

Hiteshbhai,

Balaji Amines management has indicated that Chinese production is coming back in some chemicals and their pricing is competitive. The company is seeing price erosion, or rather return to normal, in some of its products. However Balaji Amines management says the Chinese may be very aggressive in cutting prices as the government is serious about enforcing environment norms.