Hitesh portfolio


(Hitesh Patel) #3018

@Yushma

Allsec is on a downtrend and although the PE might look cheap at 7.2 as you say, one has to be sure that there is no de growth going forward. Inspite of a lot of tailwinds for most of software stocks as can be seen from their price action, allsec seems to be dwindling and hence better to avoid. There could be something structurally wrong with the business like losing contracts etc.


(Hitesh Patel) #3019

@amilshah264

The motto of the forum is to share and colloborate. Its been instilled in most of us at VP by Donald Francis and we try to follow that. Till around 2008 I was a complete novice in the field of investing having no knowledge, having read no books on investing and never interacted with an educated or informed investor. After reading One Up on Wall Street, I immediately related to the fictional character of Houndstooth mentioned in the book , which I felt I was as I used to keep on justifying my investing mistakes and losses in exactly similar manner. The book and guidance from fellow investors on forums like theequitydesk and VP changed the trajectory for me.

I have always felt that knowledge tends to increase as we keep sharing it. I think when we write it tends to clear a lot of things in our minds and improves clarity about the things we write. Sometimes we dont even know things that are at the back of our mind and these come out in full force when we end up writing things. And in the process if you end up helping someone in their growth, there’s nothing like it.

I believe there is always this positive feedback loop where if you do positive things they tend to take a whole circle and return to bless you with positive things in your life.

rgds
hitesh.


(Raj) #3020

@hitesh2710 You are absolutely right on Allsec about a structural change. I attended the AGM and spoke to few people from the management team.

During last few years their AML business did exceedingly well. This was because one of their client was into regulatory trouble. The client needed to process a lot of prior year transactions using Allsec’s AML expertise. The need to process such transactions have dropped considerably now. This has reflected in Q1 FY19 results. So overall sales will decline significantly for FY19.

We are unlikely to see earlier volume in AML business unless they get another client who gets into serious regulatory issues :grinning:

The future driver for Allsec will be their CLM and HR businesses. We need to base all our calculations for the growth based on these two businesses only.

Regards,
Raj

Disc: Invested


(gautham1) #3021

hi @hitesh2710 . By any chance do you still track Sonata?. Of late they have shown a very consistent growth. Even after this run up, the div yield is around 3%. I listened to one of the recent con calls. Management looked transparent to me.
Like all the other IT companies they are also talking about the digital transformation. I am not sure what their moat is.


(Bikram11206178) #3022

@hitesh2710 . Due to limited cash availability , I have started buying company like nesco , Mirza international , hikal , ngl fine chemicals and Avanti feeds in sip mode . I think nesco stock price will not move up suddenly as their It4 building will start contributing revenue from next year . Till that time I can buy in every dip and can accumulate good amount of stock. Same case with Mirza international as they are focusing on domestic market . They are now into sports shoe , focusing on tier 2 city costumers by introducing bond Street brand and also they are agressively selling apparel too . Ngl fine chemical have done a huge capex and the same will reflect in the next quarter result. So please suggest me if it is a good way to accumulate these stock in sip mode . I had a small position in ngl fine and it ran up 30 % quickly . Is it better to buy one stock at a time or multiple stock with small quantities .


(Hitesh Patel) #3023

@Bikram11206178

Regarding the method of buying, whether buying in a single lot or staggering one’s purchases, different investors have different styles. It has a lot to do with the investor’s mindset and comfort zone.

In my case if I find that the company I intend to buy is for a period of 2-3 years and expect returns to the tune of 2x to 3x then I dont bother staggering my purchases. But for that to happen I have to have a very clear picture about the company and the variables affecting the business.

If I am not too certain about the moving parts of the business and find that the predictability in the near future is not too certain, then I would love to buy in a staggered manner.

And while buying in a staggered manner one has to be absolutely sure that he would have the guts to buy the same company at 20-30% lower price if the price corrects. Buying on the way up is easier as you tend to develop confidence in your hypothesis but when the stock price corrects the mind starts playing games and the conviction gradually starts to shake.

For companies like frontline stocks like asian paints, hdfc bank, and so on, one can keep buying on regular intervals. But for small caps with wild swings one has to be nimble footed and stick to a style which is suited to one’s temperament.


(atul1082) #3024

Very right sir.In fact, novice like us lose confidence even in strong companies when they lose 10 to 20% and miss opportunity eg pnb housing finance, India bulls housing finance etc


(VIKKY.CUTE) #3025

Sir
i have earlier asked your views about first source solution limited post results what are the prospective. secondly do you also track jindal hisar? sir?


(Hitesh Patel) #3026

@VIKKY.CUTE

Not tracking either fsl or jsl hisar currently.

Fsl was a technofunda pick which i exited some time back


(Wolf) #3027

Hiteshji
Pls look at Sequent Scientific. It has cross 60 with signifnicant volumes. The promoter group has got it act together finally with strides and solara so i expect sequent to do much better from these levels.

Also, kiri is a good bet now. On 31 August, hopefuly the appeal in singapore cout will be dismissed paving the way for the sale of their stake.

These are my top holdings and thought i would share.


(dhiresh17) #3028

Hi @hitesh2710 Sir,

Do you still hold SKM egg products or was it your short term pick ? What are your current views on SKM egg Products ?


(atul1082) #3029

@hitesh2710 your views on hexaware whether buying opportunity during current weakness and also on SpiceJet at current price and with jet likely to lose market share and eventually fold up .


(sarthak kumar) #3030

@hitesh2710

Dear Hitesh ji,

What are your views regarding Magma Fincorp post its quarterly results.

Thanks


(Hitesh Patel) #3031

@sarthakkumar19_

Magma results seem to be decent and on the lines of what they had indicated in q4 fy 18 concall.

Asset quality improvement is as expected… Its heartening to see the figure for direct sales going up as promised.

Overall much along expected lines.


#3032

Sir,
1)What does your experience says on allocation of stocks in portfolio?It should be <5 stocks with more concentration or more no of stocks with lesser concentration?
2)How do you allocate for yourself?
I am in market since 1 year and what I learnt is that if you have many stocks with less allocation your risk will reduce but your returns will also reduce.
Like,if I have only VIP Ind invested 1L 1 year ago,it wid have been apprx 3.5L at present.But,if I divide this 1L into 10 stocks with 10% allocation in each including VIP,it wud have given 10-15-20-25% return with VIP becoming 35000.But definitely there would have been risk with only VIP that if it would have went down I would have lost of all huge 1L.This risk would have reduced with dividing 1L into many.


(phreak) #3033

@jvpatel87 - Towards a Capital Allocation Framework!


(bharat19) #3034

Even if one holds 15-20 shares of quality companies , he will enjoy magic of compounding provided he remain invested as long as business and Balance Sheet is strong. Definitely returns will vary with a concentrated portfolio but so is the risk. I believe it depends only on Individuals capacity and risk taking ability. I too have a little concentrated portfolio of around 10 stocks. I invest only that money which even if went Zero , i won’t mind. I don’t even think that it is my money after investing. Reason being i have regular other sources of Income like Salary , Business and Rental. So , If i earn 1 Lakh a Month and I save around 60 Thousand , I will invest 35000 every month in Market thinking that My savings was only 25000 which i keep as Emergency Fund. What i want to convey is that the allocation and Concentration of Portfolio depends on a Person’s risk taking ability.


(Hitesh Patel) #3035

@jvpatel87

About portfolio concentration vs diversification, the debate is endless and futile. It all depends on the type of investor one is. Some guys are ok holding 40-50 stocks while others limit themselves to 12-15 or some even less.

About myself I usually hold upto 12-15 stocks. Max allocation I cap at 15% of total portfolio and minimum at 5%. This strategy has worked very well for me till date and I cant see myself holding more than 12-15 stocks at a time.

I think portfolio allocation is equally important as stock selection in the overall scheme of things while investing.


(Umesh) #3036

Hi,
The maximum level of allocation is followed for investment or the current level of portfolio. Would you comment on the better level of management of maximum allocation in day to day changes and increased allocation beyond our set target?


(Hitesh Patel) #3037

@umesh.min

I use the filter of 15% maximum at the time of initial buying. After that if the stock price runs up I allow it to run up and keep riding till I feel there is extreme overvaluation or froth. If the latter happens I used to sell the whole holding but of late I am trying the idea of trimming the holding to comfortable levels.

I think if the company with max allocation keeps performing quite well in terms of financial performance its ok to keep riding without bothering about how high the allocation has gone post the run up.

The confusion happens when we feel that after the run up we feel that there is not much juice left even after factoring in next 2-3 years performance. But after some mistakes made in stocks like page, gruh etc I have realised that after some trimming it might be prudent to allow the position to remain intact.

Multibaggers make a difference in portfolio performance only if full position is allowed to continue throughout the journey