Hi Sir,
Are you tracking Centrum Capital? What is your long term view on Centrum capital?
@ashish_agarwal, I dont have much idea about confidence petroleum.
@Gorthi HEG and Graphite were two big misses for me. I dont track it or Rain too closely to offer any views.
@kvpjois I dont track Centrum capital too closely.
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Indian Hotels remains an interesting play on the discretionary consumption spend. Tourism is doing great with people wanting more and more vacations and wanting to spend time at quality resorts (and then putting up photographs on FB and social media from same locations 
Coming to its fundamentals the company had shared its vision 2022 document wherein they show their intent to improve their EBIDTA margin by 8% and PAT margin by 10% by 2022. If they can do that then there could be decent returns from this investment. But proof of the pudding should lie in the eating and we need to see first signs of success of the company’s strategy for 2022.
Cant share the document here as the file size appears to be too big but u can easily locate it on bse announcements made by co. or on company website.
found below link to an ET article.
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The book The Next Apple mentions about looking out for companies making fresh all time highs/fresh 52 week highs during and immediately after a bear market. In the current mayhem, pharma is a sector that seems to be showing a lot of relative strength as it doesnt seem to have buckled under selling pressure.
I think because of the overhangs on the sector during past couple of years, a lot of investors had shunned the sector altogether and probably is somewhat underowned.
Of late the regulatory problems of some big companies including Sun have been sorted out and the US generic market seems to have achieved some sort of business equilibrium where excessive price erosion may not be there in molecules going off patent. Consolidation of pharmacy chains and increase in their bargaining power with suppliers (generics supplying companies) remains a strong obstacle for these companies.
Companies like Sun, Aurobindo, Lupin, Alembic, Glenmark, Torrent pharma etc from the relatively larger cap basket have shown strong price moves to post fresh 52 week highs after having gone nowhere (except on the way down in some cases) since a long time.
I think it makes sense to be on the lookout for opportunities in the pharma space. Bought Alembic Pharma, small allocation recently. A lot of pharma companies are on my watchlist.
I am not too sure whether this will be a tradeable bounce or an absolute change in trend as the sector leaders like Sun, Lupin etc are way down from their all time highs.
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Federal bank has been under selling pressure since posting a high of 125 in Oct 2017. The last quarter results seem to indicate some kind of bottom to deteriorating asset quality scenario. I think I would like to see another quarter or two before taking a call here.
Most financial stocks have been undergoing strong price correction since past few weeks and even the stronger names like Bajaj Finance now looks to be bucking having corrected from 2993 to 2516 in past couple of days. I think this correction that has begun in this sector will keep going on for some time before resumption of uptrend. Fears of rate hike, inflation etc seem to be haunting the sector.
During these times its always prudent to keep a few companies in the radar to see any improvement on the fundamental front and thats where Federal Bank seems to be fitting the bill.
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Hiteshji,
With reference to the premise around the next apple, have you tracked small and mid- cap IT? Many of these stocks have been particularly strong in the last 12 months.
Specifically any thoughts on Intellect Design Arena?
Thanks.
Noted Hitesh Bhai… Thanks will check.
Sir, YesBank has fallen recently, do you consider this as a good time to enter YesBank? Saw that many good investors follow YesBank. PPFAS mutual fund also recently added it to their portfolio in special situations stocks.
The movements in Yes bank have largely been driven by newsflow regarding extension of term to Rana Kapoor. Plus there seems to be general hammering of most financial stocks. Since its correction in last few days maybe the fund guys are finding it cheaper on valuation parameters. I dont have a view on it as I dont track it too closely.
I think for someone convinced about the pharma theme an easy way would be to play the MF theme by investing in a pharma focussed MF. Or else create a basket of what one feels are the best companies within the sector.
I myself am still not too heavily invested in the sector but feel that the charts do seem to tell a story.
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Sir, What are your views on LT foods(Daawat) and other rice companies at these levels?
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I invested in a Pharma specific Fund as found it tough to track so many companies, which are at different stages of turnaround of sorts)
Sir,
Do u track jubliant life sciences? Any opinion on current prices?
I used to own LT foods and at that time did a bit of digging. The guy running the show came across as a very knowledgeable person, when I was listening to its concall. Although it was more of a techno funda bet at that time.
The first thing that struck me was that it was a company and a sector which was a mediocre business but was painted by marketmen as a high quality food business. I was lucky enough to exit at around 100 levels having found the sudden spurt in price very frothy.
Company had expansion plans in US, Rotterdam and a possible joint venture for rice snacks with a japanese company. These were supposed to be growth drivers.
I havent tracked recent results but I find it a co with characteristics slightly better than commodity business and so if it quotes at near commodity valuations of sub 10 PE with visible growth prospects it merits a closer look.
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@atul1082
I dont track jubilant life but it will be a beneficiary of valsartan generic price rise. A lot of companies withdrew from supplying valsartan generic molecule because their product was found to have an impurity which was carcinogenic. That left the field open for existing players which include aurobindo, jubilant life and alembic. How much it amounts to total revenues of the company needs to be seen.
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Hi Hitesh Bhai,
Whats ur view on Sugar stocks… All are 20to 30% up in last 2days…likes Balrampur, Dhmapur, sree renuka, Dalmia, Dwarakesh…
Do you think is this sector is finally in uptrend due to ethonal blending announsment from Gov…
.
Can someone consider this for momentam play for next 1year…
Also, can ypu share ur views on Praj Industry in this environment vis a vis Sugar stocks…
Thanks in advance…
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I dont know how to reply to the question on sugar stocks. By the time you reply the stocks have gone up nearly 40-50% on the back of 2 back to back circuits.
I think with so much of momentum in place its prudent to wait for some kind of consolidation in this sector before taking a call.
This ethanol story has been going on for a long time now and it seems it is being used off and on to bring about pop ups in the whole sector.
Regarding Praj I think I would first like to see a string of decent quarterly nos from the company before being able to comment on the company.
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Thanks Amit Bhai …Its indeed very wise idea.
Hi Hitesh,
Just thinking from learning point of view.
- As Magma finance is down around 15% from my buying price (Generally i start selling once stock goes down more than 10 to 15% from the top) it was easy for me to sell bajaj finance some shares as i can see it is down from around 3000/- and easy to sell when in profit.
How do see magma finance?
Would you keep it? or sell partly? or wait for 2 more weeks as once the result season start things start improving?
With my experience i feel - I should sell at least some part or may be full holding (While in loss this decision is little tough to make)
- I know as management promise the AUM growth will start from this quarter so I really want to wait for next 15 days but my past experience says sell it as price reflect first than result
- Experience says…urge to sell stocks take top priority at the wrong time so when i feel to sell magma finance, experience says don’t sell it is precisely wrong time.
- As there is no top for magma to see like bajaj finance (my buying price is driving my decision)
- Experience says once stock goes in downturn it may bounce back but at last selling decision on these shares in long term proves right in most of the cases.
- Do you wait for bounce back (as happens in many cases and execute selling decision firmly)
Just thinking, if you could share your thoughts on this it would be great learning for me.
Thanks,
Milind
About Magma inspite of good results the stock seems to be correcting as do most other financial stocks. That seems to indicate that the whole sector after a stellar run now seems to be going out of favour with markets.
People look at it in two ways.
The optimist and usually the guy who has not bought thinks it as a great buying opportunity. Sometimes people who dont have enough quantity end up adding more.
Those stuck at higher levels are disgusted with their decision and look out for chances to sell out and book losses.
There usually are no clear cut answers to these quandaries. I belong to a camp which is quick to sell out and book losses and look at it again if the results keep turning out to be good and the environment for the business remains favourable.
I think the markets currently seem to be fearful of a series of rate hikes in an attempt to stem the currency fall. I dont know it these measures would help but the fear of such steps keeps markets on tenterhooks. My guess is once the event is through the pressure on financials could be done with.
Sometimes these kind of markets offer good chances to rejig the portfolio to get into what we feel are better choices than the ones existing in one’s portfolio.
I myself am in the same boat as you and am looking for a meaningful bounce to exit as in the current market scenario I dont see financials making their comeback and recovering previous highs soon.
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