@hitesh2710
Is Pnb fraud the tip of the iceberg and can spoil the sentiment of the market ? How do you see the whole episode ? Please share your thoughts.
Hai Hitheshji…being a medical professional myself, admire your insight in to the market and the natural ease with which you explain things.
Will be grateful, if can give your opinion about FINEOTEX CHEMICAL LIMITED. They have come out with good Q3 results; consistent growth in revenue/PAT; good profit margin; consistently dividend paying; 38% export; good fundamentals; no debt; consistently increasing promoter shareholding to 72%; huge prospects of aqua strike( unique green, non poisonous mosquitoes breeding controller )…and so on… I have already started accumulating it. Kindly give me your valuable inputs. Thank you.
The PNB fiasco highlights the rot that remains in the PSU banks. But such a big blow will certainly make govt and managers at PSU banks sit up and take notice and probably lead to better lending practices. This fiasco itself might throw up some good opportunities if one can figure out which of the PSU banks are the better bets.
About the rub off effect of PNB on PNB HF sentimentally it certainly has hit PNBHF. But business wise I think it wont matter much. PNB might be induced to reduce/sell its stake in PNB HF once the mandatory lock in period post IPO gets over. If and when that happens it could provide a great opportunity. Till then earnings would be key.
@Galaxy, About fineotex chemicals I dont have much idea beyond whatever you have written. But whatever I have gathered about the company seems encouraging.
8 Likes
Hi Hitesh Bhai, What is your view on rising Bond yield on PNB HF’s profit growth? Also How will it affect the masala Bond yield which it is planning to raise with IFC?
Hi HiteshBhai,
Why is public sector housing finance companies are well managed, low npas, no corruption but public sector banks are badly managed? What makes the culture difference. I guess the people quality should be similar right?
1 Like
@morigh82, If you listen to the concall of PNB HF, Mr Sanjay Gupta is very categorical and consistent in asserting that all he is worried about is maintaining his NIMs between a certain range. All these variables of rising bond yields and them opting for masala bonds etc are better left to the management rather than us worrying about it.
@sunilsurana, Its difficult to figure out why PSU finance companies have been managed very well and why PSU Banks have been managed poorly. I guess one of the reasons would be that the asset in question for HFC is a house which in the Indian context has a lot of sentimental value and people would not wilfully default. Plus the collateral value is always higher than loan amount and its very difficult to drastically overquote the value of a house. Same things may not apply for businesses who borrow from PSU banks.
Besides in housing finance the portfolio risk is fairly divided. e.g thousands of loans of 20 lacs to 1 crore versus a single loan of say 5000 to 10000 crores.
17 Likes
That’s a bouncer/googly ! Counter intuitive yet logical. Also it means earnings changes much faster than price that’s why extremely low earning makes PE high and sudden inflated earnings makes PE low…better to plot earnings or NP on a graph and buy when this has bottomed out for 2-3 quarters and sell when peaked for 2-3 quarters. PE might confuse.
hi galaxy regarding FCL…its cumulative PAT not converted into cumulative CFO so kindly look it once and if you are getting any input kindly share it…
Hi@hitesh ji…kindly help me regarding how to find out reasons if any company is not paying tax
@hitesh2710 First of all thanks a lot for responding to all queries and views in detail. This forum is of immense value for individual investors.
I have queries on 2 stocks -
Motherson sumi :- its one of my favourite stocks and my feel is coming 2 years should be good for sumi mainly because they are planning to grow with acquisitions , have 9 plants that will get activated in coming years. The global growth is expected to benefit motherson sumi. Also ,its has great expertise in auto components and they will have good share in electric cars as well. The management has been great and in most cases delivered what it planned. Infact their 2020 target is expected to be achieved earlier than expected.
In recent time motherson sumi has cracked about 20% and it is being said that this is because of lower than expected q3 result. I have been buying in this fall as well.
Can you kindly share your views on sumi and is there something i am missing.
- Hindustan zinc :- it has been a steady compounder for me and has good dividend yield as well. However ,one major risk is its commodity based. Zinc prices have remained high mainly because of closure of chinese mines. I try to track it on regularly but as i am not a commodity expert ,i feel jittery at times.
What can be a proper approach for stocks like Hindustan zinc. Is it something which i can hold for 15 to 20 years ignoring short term commodity jitters? Because Hindustan zinc is one of the cheapest zinc producer and has mines with high life. Or i should avoid it and stick to non commodity stocks ?
3 Likes
@hitesh2710 Dear Hitesh ji, as I understand you are an investor who combines fundamental and technical analysis for taking buy/sell decision. Could you please suggest some of the technical indicators you use.
@hitesh2710 Request your views on Sun Pharma. Looks like the Halol plant observations might be remedied soon. Does it now looks that Sun Pharma has made all the mistakes it did and now on a comeback path? Or is it too early to say that it is out of the woods. Thanks.
@hitesh2710 Dear Hitesh ji,
Would like to understand your view point on Aditya Birla Capital.
With its diversified offering of financial products, I think it is a very good proxy to play the ‘Financialisation of Savings’ theme in India. Current market cap ~36k crore
Thank you in advance for sharing your valuable insights.
Regards,
Dhruv Patel
@hitesh2710 Dear Hitesh ji,
You’ve said earlier that you are not currently tracking Glenmark. But from past experience, would you classify its management as minority shareholder friendly.
Thanks
@kkinvestment4ura, companies not paying tax could be because of previous accumulated losses. Or else it could be due to sectors like seeds business where they are not obliged to pay taxes as income is agricultural in nature.
@nowin, I dont track motherson sumi. I had tried earlier but there are too many subsidiaries to track and too many moving parts to the business.
Hind Zinc as you mention is a steady compounder with downside protection due to div yield. But it will be vulnerable to the zinc cycle although it remains a big player in the zinc segment. Plus the promoters in the past have used money from one company to fund another group company’s needs and hence it doesnt inspire too much confidence. If one were to look for steady compounders why not look at hdfc bank?.
@dheegarg, In technical analysis I mostly use well known patterns and sometimes retracement levels. Sometimes I use moving avgs like 50/150/200 day moving avgs. I use indicators sparingly mainly to detect divergences in case of a potential top or bottom. For that I use RSI.
@ramanhp, About Sun Pharma, it seems with only 3 observations it might have gotten close to USFDA clearance for its Halol plant. But with their checkered track record in the past I think markets are not too confident about its prospects. And the other aspect of severe competition in the US markets will weigh on the stock performance. It seems lower margins in US markets will be the new norm.
@dhruv11, AB Capital is an interesting play on the theme you mention. Financialisation of savings. It can be an interesting play if one were to consider the very long term horizon of 5-10 years. Besides it can be an important vehicle for the Birla group to expand in the financial sector. In the near term though it seems fairly valued and hence is range bound.
@sarthakkumar19_, I would rate Glenmark management top notch in terms of their domain expertise as well as being minority shareholder friendly.
26 Likes
Thanks for your comments on Sun Pharma @hitesh2710. Regarding AB Capital, I too find it a goo bet for a very very long time and hence I add it regularly and at each attractive level.
1 Like
Dear Hitesh ji,
There is a major diff between PNB and PNB HF in addition the business model… which is their management and how they are remunerated./…
PNB HF is not a PSU and managed like a tight PE managed business … Strategic PE investor took the major holdings in the inception and turnaround the management and cultre and shaped the business which is what we see today …
PNB on the contrary is just like any other PSU banks which are full of underperforming bankers who are underpaid and unmotivated to perform…
Any and every business is what its people make it… thats my humble view.,… apologies if i failed to express it… Thanks
6 Likes
Dear Hitesh ji,
This question is on behalf of a friend who is recently retired. His requirement is to create a long long term portfolio of 8-10 stocks with almost assured AVERAGE CAGR of ~14-15%. Can you kindly suggest a few stocks for him? He does not trust mutual funds. I can think of , may be, HDFC Bank & may be Gruh based on past performance. But other stocks?
Also, as he will appreciate your opinion much more than mine due to your experience and methodology.