Hiteshbhai-Request some elaboration about the weak technical structure in Bajaj Finance to understand better. It is definitely a marquee name in financial services with excellent demonstrated execution skills.Since it forms 16% of my PF-keen to understand
Page is one stock which suffers off and on from these bouts of euphoria and then goes sideways for long periods of time till the earnings catch up. Once it reaches its peak it tends to move around in a range undergoing time correction. I think its an established story in terms of longevity of the business.
Ajanta seems to be reviving and seems to be one of the better bets amongst pharma names. Technically it has formed a rounding bottom formation and now trading above that.
APL Apollo tubes is in a strong bull market of its own. It has gone up from 850-900 to 2500 levels in something over a year and still shows no signs of weakening. And I havent heard many people discuss it which is a beautiful thing if you own the company.
@peabody, In the shorter term bajaj finance was posting a series of lower highs and lower lows. It seems to be stabilising now but I would still watch it for a few more trading sessions.
@Ankur_Lakhia , Bosch as u indicate seems to be taking support from its 200 week moving average. But it doesnt seem to show too much strength either.
@mambajamba, I dont have any idea about hindustan foods.
Hi Hitesh ji…can u through some lite on fortis health care and about its management and its longetivity
@hitesh2710, Hitesh bhai, how much cash % u r holding in current market? how do you manage current market at all time high and high p/e scenario? Is it market a buy on high or sell/sideways market?
@kk, I dont have much idea about fortis healthcare. And as far as I know about the promoters I think it is owned by the erstwhile promoters of Ranbaxy. Not much to say about those guys. The business does have a lot of longevity but how it fares on profitable growth parameter needs to be seen.
I have been almost fully invested in the markets since past 4-5 years barring the ocassional few weeks or months when I have sold something and it takes a bit of time to replace it with something else.
But of late since past 2-3 weeks I have been feeling slightly uncomfortable about the markets. At the current juncture we seem to have begun a parabolic phase of the markets where indices go up at breakneck speed and still market breadth is very poor. It gives a slightly dejavu feeling when I compare the current markets to the last few months of 2007 when the small and midcap music had come to a standstill and indices still managed to keep posting higher highs. Until January 2008 when all hell broke loose.
Another interesting observation is that a lot of so called fence sitters and die hard fixed deposit investors seem to have thrown in the towel and are now ready to take the plunge into direct equity. I have a lot of doctor friends who were almost always invested in FDs now asking me about prospects of equity returns. And we already have seen the deluge of SIP money coming into markets since past many months.
Short to medium term bull market technical patterns are no longer playing out. Especially in the small and mid cap segments Maybe these are undergoing a much needed pause.
Porinju has supposedly predicted a bull market till 2062. Extreme bullish projections usually happen at the fag end of bullish rallies.
On the other side of argument, whats missing is extreme leverage, deluge of big IPOs, CNBC guys wearing Tshirts displaying index levels and carrying placards displaying index levels , chaiwala and panwala getting into the markets and more specifically advising seasoned investors on what to buy.
The roadmap I personally see is index continuing to go up some more and then hitting a bump and then a correction from where midcaps/small caps might correct significantly more. But thats a personal feeling and not to be taken seriously. Its only that for the first time in a long time I am feeling a bit jittery and I dont want to ignore that feeling totally. So I have exited some of my trading positions and raised cash to the tune of around 20% of the PF. The intention is to raise more cash and keep watching the markets for any sign of froth/weakness in segments and sectors and act accordingly in a faster manner.
Vivek Patil used to write on icicidirect about his predictions on a weekly basis (now it seems he no longer does), One of his favorite time periods was the first quarter of any year i.e Jan to March period. According to him in this period markets have a high tendency to top out during this period. If I recall correctly he also had a theory about a smallish 2 year cycle repeating during the Jan-March period and if that holds true, 2 years on from Jan 2016 we might be in line for a correction.
Sitting on cash is going to be difficult because it is going to be a new learning for me, not having been on too much cash for too long since past many years.
PS… All these are the musings based more on feel than on hard facts and data. So these need to be taken with a pinch of salt.
HOW do you do valuation of housing finance companies such as pnb housing
Hats off, Hitesh Bhai. Your long post resembles Howard Marks’ memos including his September 2017 memo titled ‘Yet Again’. Not sure if my comments add any value to this discussion but I couldn’t hold myself from posting this.
@hitesh2710 Thanks for sharing your view about current situation. It helps a lot.
How do you manage the cash position? Just in case if we have to be in cash for longer duration, we may have to find alternatives available to park it. Having it in bank is of no use anymore. Investing in LIQUIDBEES seems to be good. Your opinion please? VP thread on managing cash position is below.
My first comment here. Thanks for that interesting post, Hitesh. Why do you think the market breadth is very poor despite the continuous rise in the indices? Any thoughts on the reasons for that?
@hitesh2710 Sir your thoughts on Prakash Industries after the Q3 results.
Valuation of housing finance companies traditionally could be done with respect to book value. PNB HF book value is around 350 per share as per screener. So currently its at 3.77 times book value.
For financial companies having consistent predictable growth, people have found out another way to value a company based on PE ratio. I think PNBHF could report around 48-50 per share for fy 18. Based on that the PE comes to around 27 per share.
Then one has to take into account the probable growth in future and pay accordingly.
@asarun, Poor market breadth inspite of continuous rise in indices can be because of a variety of factors but if it continues for many days in a row there is a cause for concern. It gives a feeling that the index is being held up by only a few stocks with high weightage in the index and distribution is going on in small and midcap stocks. Or else it could be just that small and midcaps are taking a pause after their stellar run and after some consolidation could run up again. One has to take a call which of the two possibilities is more likely and act accordingly.
@santhozp, I think liquid bees is a good option to park cash.
The other option is to buy into companies with limited downside and get moderate returns till the time one feels the overhang of correction is over. Earlier some stocks that fit the bill perfectly were Page inds, HDFC Bank, Gruh, etc. These stocks change from time to time. I felt that ITC around 265-270 could be a good parking space but it has started an uptrend now and around 280.
Currently I feel some pharma stocks which have displayed a lot of stability and low volatility e.g cipla etc could be a good parking space.
I personally at this juncture prefer liquid bees.
Could u pl. advise a good site to study technical charts & delivery volumes.I currently see money control charts.Another question is how to figure out delivery based volume out of it as I presume the figures shown indicate to tolal transacted shares?Am I right resuming it?Lastly your call on indiabulls housing finance on technical charts?Thanks in advance
@hitesh2710 Sir I am an amateur and would like your views on GNFC and Prakash Industries.
Even Nesco could be considered for parking funds. But I would not sell a
single share of Nesco
Thanks for the comment, Hitesh. I hope the midcaps are only taking a pause! I would like to take some money out too, but with quite modest 8-10% gains currently on most of my portfolio, it doesn’t make much sense. Let’s see how it plays out. Hopefully, there is a run up again.