Thanks for the comment, Hitesh. I hope the midcaps are only taking a pause! I would like to take some money out too, but with quite modest 8-10% gains currently on most of my portfolio, it doesn’t make much sense. Let’s see how it plays out. Hopefully, there is a run up again.
Hitesh bhai if you track any of the sugar stocks…it would be great to know your view…all the shares in this sector is falling sharply
@hitesh2710 Thanks for the feedback on managing cash position.
Lumax Industries seems to be well positioned to take advantage of shift in the automobile indutry to LED lighting and BS IV Norms by 2020 helps it further. They have already started to expand LED offering with great product quality combined with superior design. They are the suppliers for major OEM’s like Maruti, Hinda, Hyundai, Toyota, Tata, Hero etc. Profit margin seems to be on the lower side but increasing YoY. LED’s could help for significant improvement on the profit margin. ROCE seems to be around 20 and D/E is 0.38 decreasing YoY. P/E seems to be around 30 so seems to be fully priced already. Other metrics also looks fine.
Would like to know your view on Lumax Industries?
Hello Hitesh Ji,
I am new to this Group & sharing my observation first time. However, investing in this market since 2000.
I have read your observation very carefully about the market & having the same feeling. This market has continuously risen during these last two years. All the Business channels & so called market ‘PANDITS’ are extremely bullish & predicting New High, as if, there is no end of high side. If any Analyst warns or raise their doubt about the market, some TV Anchors does not like their view, since they are Bullish & giving their ‘Gyan’ to listeners. Many of the stocks, particularly Mid & Small Caps are trading beyond our expectations or say on very high PE. Their fundamental and earnings does not match/support with their current price.
You would have also observed that SMSes are being sent by some of the manipulators to small investors on regular basis to those, who are new to stock market. Even many people are getting regular phone call from area like Indore to trade in this market & take profit. Lot of so called Market expert or Guru have started their YouTube site & on continue basis recommending stocks. Listening to these people, many retired people are also investing in this market after breaking their FD, without much knowledge.
This kind of euphoria about the stock market was never there in past.We are aware that Liquidity is coming on market from new investors/Mutual Fund as well as from FII, but does it mean that Index will see regular High on High. See the NIFTY PE ratio, is it not alarming.
I am long term investor, but high valuation have made me to think in reverse direction & forced me to sit on Cash & observe the market euphoria. This time I don’t want to repeat of my old mistake of 2008.
Keeping watch on Pharma & Commodity. Taken short exposure in MCX after the result.
Would like to know which Sectors as well as stocks are on your Radar. THANKS.
Hello Hitesh Sir, i think the movement going on in the market due to the SEBI rules about MCAP categorization and MF allocation in large, mid and small caps. And hence most of fund get transferred from mid\small cap to large cap and hence index are getting move up and small cap getting down day by day. Its seems there is no change in fundamentals in the companies in mid cap. But still the whole market moved well from last 12 months and there is no major correction till now. And in near future only upcoming budget is the event which can be a short term impact on indexes. Then a complete up move is bound to happen.
@santhozp, I dont have much idea about lumax industries. Missed the whole rally in the sector unfortunately.
@anurag88, Sugar sector seems to be in a downtrend. But in the shorter term on charts the stock charts of the sector show highly oversold state and could be ready for a short term bounce. If and when that happens one could take a call based on the strength of short term upmove about whether medium to long term trend could be up or still down.
Sir if you pass me your email I can pass Vivek patils analysis (if you want it) which broadly says for last two years instead of jan-march pick market is picking in Nov mainly due to DII
Hello Hitesh ji, Ganesh housing APPROVED DISINVESTMENT OF 51 PERCENT STAKE IN UNIT SHAILY INFRASTRUCTURE…It must be help to get more cashflow for GH …Technically it looks good but it will if you comment on GH fundamental… For future prospect …Thanks in advance.
Hello hitesh ji, Can you share your view on Morepen Lab and Vikas ecotech…Thx
Dear @hitesh2710 sir,
Thank you for the continuous education you are giving to small and novice investors like me.
As you mentioned PNB hovering around 3.7 Price to Book. I do see DHFL still around 2.1 book value even after running up last one year. How do you compare these two especially when we consider DHFL still trades cheaper to PNB? Traditionally I know DHFL commanded less valuations owing to past track record of management, but I think they learned their lessons and looks fine in the past few years.
note: I am invested in DHFL and have a small position in PNB Housing as well.
VEL - posting consistent numbers from last few qtrs.
- NGT ban can prove to be a boon, once MoEF frames law.
- Cash receivable days are very high but should come down in coming qtrs. Not worried about it.
- Demerged is another positive.
Morepen - Consistent in posting positive qtrly NP.
- Reduced debt a big positive. Debt free by june-2018.
- USFDA approval. positive.
- Company in home diagnostic, API.
- Will chart new plans after becoming debt free. Keep holding.
could you suggest me a good site to study technical charts with volumes?I currently check on moneycontrol.com
Your views on interglobe aviation & Avenue supermart for long term pl?
I dont know where u can find out technical charts with volumes online. Maybe others can help. I use metastock software so never used any online site.
Re avenue it is a compounder which seems to be fully priced. Not much idea about indigo.
Not much idea about vikas eco. I had a look at morepen labs bcos of sharp reduction in debt but couldnt get too much conviction considering its checkered past.
Valuation difference between different companies in same sector will remain. e.g gruh remains most expensive followed by pnbhf followed by diwan hf. It all depends upon one’s comfort level where one wants to invest and what we intend to pay for it.
Quality never comes cheap and thats what gruh has demonstrated over the past many years. In most lending businesses first and foremost even above growth, asset quality and management pedigree assumes significant importance and hence the above valuation differences. Its okay if one wants to invest for short to medium term but if one is thinking about long term, then above factors have to be borne in mind.
Hi Hitesh sir,
One query after today’s introduction of LTCG tax of 10%. If somebody is
having 10 lakh profit in equity, won’t it make sense if he sell stock
before March end and buy again at the same rate ?
In this way he doesn’t have to pay LTCG of 10 %.
Can’t this trigger selling by march end ?
You need not. Assuming you sell on 1st Aug 2018 and your gain is 10 lakhs, but as of 31st Jan 2018 your gain is 8.75 lakhs. The calculation has to consider only the 1.25 lakhs gain. Since gain above 1 lakh is only considered, you pay 2.5k for 25k as LTCG. So selling and buying back is not necessary. Because of the 31st Jan grandfathering date, most of the investors should not worry about this in my view.
I am not sure if the gains are calculated on individual transaction level or at the portfolio level. The details should be out soon.
It is at portfolio level. One lac of LTCG in a year (FY18-19) is exempt. Anything above that is taxable.
Thanks Jacklyn. Makes sense
Is this the case for Mutual Funds also? Would 31-Jan be considered as the grandfathered date in terms of the NAV value?