Granules India Ltd

Motilal Oswal Target 185

Results Overview- Above est. quarter; EBITDA margin expansion by 180bp leads to PAT growth of 40% Revenues at INR 366cr, +19% YoY were 2% above our estimate of INR 360cr. The expanded PFI capacity of 4,000 tons commenced operations during the quarter in addition to the existing capacity of 14,400 tons. This contributed to incremental growth from PFIs which was affecting revenue growth since the last four quarters. We believe revenue growth should accelerate moving into 2HFY16.EBITDA at INR 68.9cr, +32% YoY was 13% above our estimate of INR 60.8cr. EBITDA margin at 18.8% was higher by 180bp YoY and 90bp QoQ against our estimate of 16.9%, a beat of 190bp. Management is targeting EBITDA margins of 20% over the next couple of years. PAT at INR 31.0cr (+40% YoY) is 16% ahead of our estimate of INR 26.7cr

Valuation and view

Granules is a high quality play on the mid-cap pharma space. The company is climbing higher in the pharma value chain by focusing on formulations which is expected to reach 65% of standalone revenues from 32% in FY15. While we expect the base business to solely drive profits until FY18E, we expect Auctus and the Omnichem JV to start contributing meaningfully to profitability by FY19E.
Based on the strong margins displayed by the company in 1HFY16, we raise our margin assumptions for FY16/17 by 1.5%/1.6% to 18.1%/19.3% and accordingly raise our EPS estimates by 15% for FY16/17. Overall, we expect the company to grow its Revenues/EBITDA/PAT at 17%/27%/34% respectively over FY15-18E and improve pre-tax ROCE from 19% in FY15 to 28% in FY18E.
We value the business at 20x Sep 2017E EPS which is a 10% discount (being a B2B player) to the mean multiple commanded by midcap formulation companies and maintain BUY rating on the stock with a target price of INR 185 / share (earlier INR 160).

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Has the dividend been credited ?

Not yet credited in my a/c… Any other boaders ??

Granules India is getting added to MSCI Small Cap Index from Nov 30:

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http://www.bloomberg.com/research/stocks/people/person.asp?personId=52851913&privcapId=12752639
Harsha Chigurupati (son of promoter) seems to have taken a back seat turning from executive director to non-executive director.Any reason for this?Is there any change in management succession plan?

Recent Management Interview…

The transcript of C Krishna Prasad’s interview with CNBC-TV18.

Nigel: First things first, your first half of the year has been quite good. I think you are expecting second half of the year to be much better, because your guidance states that your revenues are likely to come in higher by close to around 20 percent for the year, so we are expecting the second half to be good. And margins as well, currently it is at around 18 percent, you expect it to go from around 18 to 20 percent?

Ans: 20 is the target, but I would be happy if it is within 19 and 20 percent. And like you said, the topline is bound to grow and the margins also are going to be in line.

Reema: Can you tell us a little more about your OmniChem joint venture (JV), you have indicated that revenues from there would go up from current Rs 100 crore to Rs 550 crore by FY20. What would be the concomitant increase in your margins?

Ans: Margins in contract research and manufacturing services (CRAMS) business are relatively high and it is also a factor of capacity utilisation. This year we expect to do about between Rs 90 and Rs 100 crore. And that would be about 30-35 percent of capacity utilisation and we expect it to be a cash breakeven this year, but as we go by, next year there will be a nice profit and the year after that, when we go to about 70-80 percent capacity utilisation, the earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) can be upward of about 30 percent.

Reema: So, you will hit capacity utilisation by FY18?

Ans: FY18, we would be touching about 80 percent, but in the CRAMS business, you always need to keep some spare capacity and we already have plans to start expanding and maybe next year, we will start construction of the new block and double the capacity.

Nigel: Your Pharmaceutical Formulation Intermediates (PFI) business currently constitutes close to around 25-27 percent of your total sales. I believe that you had a capacity of close to around Rs 4,000 tonnes that came on stream. What kind of revenue traction can you see on that front?

Ans: The PFI would be increasing by about 15-20 percent this year and all that. We would not be able to utilise the entire capacity of the new modules because more products have to be validated there. This year, we expect about 60-70 percent utilisation of this capacity and that will deal about 15-20 percent growth in the PFI business.

Nigel: So, your PFI business now as a revenue contributor, it would increase from around 27 to what levels? And also in terms of margins, what can we expect? What is the impact over there?

Ans: Margins overall is a mix of different factors and PFI does contribute to increase of margins and overall, we expect to be close to 20 percent.

Reema: You were aiming to file four Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA) in FY16 maybe another 14 by the end of FY17, are you on track for that? ’

Ans: This year, in the next three months, we expect to do about two to three ANDAs this year and maybe eight to nine ANDAs in the next year. We have been focusing on very complex molecules and rather than file numbers, we have gone the way of filing quality and highly marketable products.

Nigel: For FY17 particularly, Metformin is going to be the big drug, because the capacity over there is going to go up multi-fold, could you tell us what is the contribution currently, what is the margin currently and what is the potential that we can see coming in?

Ans: Metformin, today, contributes about 24 percent of our topline and as we go by, even when the new capacity comes in, it is capacity for the Active Pharmaceutical Ingredient (API) and that needs to be made to file amendments for ANDA and we expect the production to start in June of next year and it could take anywhere from three months to a year for the approvals from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to come in. And once that comes in, today actually we buy API from other sources. It is not that the topline is just going to go up, but the profitability will increase because most of the API will be produced in house. But we also expect Metformin to grow by about 10 percent over the next few years, year-on-year (Y-o-Y).

Reema: You spoke about upping your capacity. What would be the total fund requirement for that and how will you get those funds?

Ans: The total fund requirement for the next two year, current year and next year is Rs 450 crore and Rs 140 crore would be for the new API plant and Rs 70 crore for increasing Metformin and other capacities. Our US plant will be needing about Rs 80 crore. And for filing ANDAs, we will be spending about Rs 90 and the rest is normal capital expenditure. And this is being brought in by – out of this, about Rs 200 crore plus is being brought in by me, by way of warrants and all that money should come in by first quarter of next year and the rest will be internal accruals.

Here is the video link:

Disc- Invested

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breaking news…Granules India Ltd has informed BSE regarding a Press Release dated December 21, 2015 titled “Granules India’s two facilities located in Vizag (Andhra Pradesh) and Jeedimetla (Telangana) completed U.S. FDA inspection”.
no observations for vizag facility and 3 for Jeedimetla
http://www.bseindia.com/corporates/ann.aspx?scrip=532482&dur=A&expandable=0

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New update on Government’s likely capping on profit margins of drug makers. How do you think this will impact the pharma companies? Also should we be looking this separately from B2B and B2C companies? Experts …Any thoughts?

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Pharma companies have many dimensions to look at. In addition to B2B and B2C, one has to look at where/how they get the revenue… domestic versus export revenue.Also, in B2B, how much stickiness or switch cost associated to change supplier for the product they supply. “Me too” category products would suffer the most…

Good peek into promoters’ passion but was surprised to see no mention of Granules in the whole article.

Decent correction in the last few days. Anybody having any insights into their response on the FDA observations at Jeedimetla facility?

The correction is part of mid-cap correction going on across the board. Reg FDA, I came to know informally that the observations are elementary in nature and company can get thru this as BAU.
Hope the stock will recover after seeing quarterly numbers.

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Hi,

They were supposed to reply within 15 working days which supposedly got over. Maybe thats the concern invstors are spooked about coupled with the negative sentiments.

Any info why they haven’t replied yet?

How you know they have not replied ? :relaxed:

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They should have disclosed as they did last time when those observations were reported

Between the more important questions is whether now is a good time to add at 125 level. I am willing to pay up slightly for quality and growth expected

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People generally mistake “absence of evidence” with “evidence of absence” :slight_smile:
There is an absence of evidence of company responding back to the observations. Doesn’t mean that there is evidence of company failing to respond to the fda.
So obvious but still people get trapped into this thinking.

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Midcap pharma (and in general midcaps and smallcaps) got hammered today but nothing was more heady than the fall in Granules, in my PF (Kitex is of course taking the cake, for the king of drags!!). It briefly sank to 102 today (making it a good 60% correction from the peak of 164). I know that it is a swing of times, but is there more to it than what meets the eye? There were rumours that a margin call got triggered and that created the panic etc; the usual stuff, which goes around, when exaggerated falls do happen. All said and done, my cage is rattled and I am wondering whether I am missing something obvious, in a oblivious manner !!

PS - Added heavily today.

Don’t see any fundamental changes in the last few weeks. Market is testing the nerves. I added this stock at 127 yesterday and it dropped to 100 levels today. Just imagine the situation

buddy…mine is more pathetic imagination than yours…I have been adding it since the time it fell to high130s