I am invested here, but not clear about next 2 years growth. Even though i understand that Mgmt is trying various things (OTC, RX, In licensing and Marketing,Complex ANDA, CRAMS ) to boost growth in longer term. But it seems Traction will be seen only in Fy19/20 and that too if it succeeds. So Lot of uncertainty and near term pain.
My Earnings estimates are 6.5 , 7.6 and 9.6 for Fy17, Fy18, FY19 resulting in around 17% bottomline growth for next 2 years and aorund 28% growth for Fy19.
gRAN_FY.xlsx (8.8 KB)
Granules Business prospects
- OTC Business - Currently negligible % of Revenue and can see traction from say Fy19 and meaningful revenue form Fy20/21
- Prescription (Rx) Business - 2 ANDAS approved by US and a abacavir molecule. ANDA pipeline as of today is very minimal and no approval is expected till Fy18. Even here traction can be seen around FY19 as Andas are expected to be filed from US virginia facility and Auctus
- DMF for Partners - Example multiple sclerosis - Patent expiry is around FY20, SO commercial launch should be around fy20/21.
- FD Capacity utilization - Currently only 50% is utilised, so huge opportunity, but finding new customers does not seem to be easy.
- CAPEX - Always in capex mode, SO investment led story only . Now going into lot of new areas OTC , RX R &D , filing Andas, so Capex will only increase, so no free cash flow expected in near future and uncertainty also
- Auctus - Real growth will be seen two to three years from today by Fy19. Only in reserach and filing mode now. As of ow no profit, no loss
- omnichem - Only intermediates till Fy18. Expected usfda filing and api approval by Fy18/19.
- biocause - No growth here. Will remain zombie. Just for APi security
- Inlicensing( Windlas and par pharma)** - Visibility can be seen only in Fy18 end /Fy19 . Hope this US marketing is for otc and not for RX as they rely on third parties to market even their own RX Anda’s. Not sure how they will eb able to market Windlas assets.
- API - Lot of capcity addition in metformin, so could see traction from Fy18. But formulations based on that will again be 2 years from Fy18.
- PFI - Capaciy addition planned and ven current capcity utilization is 80%. So should give 15% topline here evey year