Indians will watch world going electric and enjoy the reduced crude prices till the time EV technology settles down.
The below article points out some pertinent issues we will face with respect to EVs becoming a reality in India. For a power deficient country it maybe a while before we see EV making massive in-roads.
I personally believe, the EV revolution will take root in our public transport to begin with, i.e. buses, rickshaws etc. This maybe followed by scooters (possibly easier to charge them at home, esp in towns and cities where people live in their own houses and not apartments / multi-storied buildings). PVs and CVs are at least a decade away, maybe even longer. Furthermore, I reckon, it will be a gradual shift. So, in effect if one were to look at the pie-chart of vehicles sold in India over a decade, it will look something like ~5-10% EVs and the rest being ICE.
Again, this is just me talking as a consumer. I own a CNG car and in the 6 years I have owned it, the CNG pumps in Mumbai have increased very slowly and it takes me at least 15-20 mins to get fuel filled in my car (and it tests my patience to say the least!). During peak hours, it may even take 30 mins (viz a viz the 5 odd mins it takes me to fill petrol).
For EVs, if the wait times are going to be long (a) due to limited charging points (b) due to batteries taking time to recharge, I just don’t believe people will easily switch over to EVs as time is money and the inconvenience is a big put off (it is to me with a CNG car, though the money saved on it being much cheaper makes up for it).
Please go through the links shared in the posts above. The author is making redundant assumptions with incomplete research.
The premise to why EVs is that EVs will become cheaper than cars to operate on a per km basis. They will also be more convenient to operate. Check out Tony Seba lecture clip.
Add that premise to Delhi RTO trends above and you can see his prophecy becoming a reality. Even without electric cars becoming cheaper. Add sub 10 lac electric cars which can do 10 lac kms without maintenance to the mix and things should change.
Well, I won’t be surprised if that is the case. I agree with you wholeheartedly that journalists tend to do incomplete or hasty research. This mostly boils down to their deadlines, just like everyone else
Even keeping the article aside, just pure observation suggests the government is trying to bite more than it can chew with reference to EVs. It’s going to take one mighty effort to have a lot of EVs on road in the next decade. Hence, my belief that it will all happen gradually and over the next decade or so they will form a certain % of the overall pie of all new vehicles coming on road and ICE will still remain relevant (by a large margin).
But buddy, I ain’t no oracle and I can’t really see the future. Things may happen faster but these are just my assumptions based on how swiftly (using sarcasm) our wonderful country moves!
I agree with all you have said, the change will happen albeit slowly.
We know how things work from Government perspective, but when crores of people get involved in their best interests, things might move rather fast defying our culture. For many people time is money, for many others money saved is more important.
I’ve been reading about this company called Olectra Greentech which has purportedly has a partnership with BYD of China to sell e-buses.
I’ve come across several suspicious things starting with the crude language they use on their website (refer screenshot)
“We term NEW as NOW is the electric way” - what does this even mean?
Why would a Chinese giant with a successful product enter into a JV (and risk sharing its technology) with a micro cap company from India which has no experience in this product domain?
Why did they just change their name from “Goldstone Infratech” (which has no correlation with EVs of any sort to “Olectra Greentech” which sounds even more odd?
Listening to mgmt interview (N Naga “Satyam”, which by the way doesn’t remind me of another “Satyam” from 2009 ) didn’t inspire any confidence at all as well!
Has anyone else researched what does this JV do, how it benefits “Olectra” and how is it in fact able to beat India’s biggies like Tata Motors, Ashok Leyland with years of experience dealing with state transport undertakings, if it is doing so in reality!?
TATA MOTORS + TATA CAPITAL + TATA POWER …> CREATING EV ECOSYSTEM
To give an EV alternative, one can look at Mazda rotary engine that can run both gasoline and hydrogen at the same price of normal ICE. If EV gains foothold, then cheaper and low emission engines can be a great boon to use low oil prices and high mpg.
BLAST FROM PAST …
THOMAS EDISON AND FORD STORY IN 1920s
Edision Quotes :
“Electricity is the thing. There are no whirring and grinding gears with their numerous levers to confuse. There is not that almost terrifying uncertain throb and whirr of the powerful combustion engine. There is no water-circulating system to get out of order – no dangerous and evil-smelling gasoline and no noise”
"He called attention to the fact that a new automobile, especially one embodying such radical features as a $500 or $750 electric pleasure car naturally must have, cannot be designed and constructed in a few weeks.
"Mr. Henry Ford is making plans for the tools, special machinery, factory buildings and equipment for the production of this new electric. There is so much special work to be done that no date can be fixed now as to when the new electric can be put on the market. But Mr. Ford is working steadily on the details, and he knows his business so it will not be long.
“I believe that ultimately the electric motor will be universally used for trucking in all large cities, and that the electric automobile will be the family carriage of the future. All trucking must come to electricity. I am convinced that it will not be long before all the trucking in New York City will be electric.”
But OIL Lobby was strong - they destroyed the factories … Read more … It has taken us 100 years to be back on track …
Blast from past :
Oil Lobby again worked hard to destroy : GM first EV in 2001 long before TELSA came into being . There is movie made on the same - "Who killed the electric car "
All Charged Up About Lithium-ion
Govt is looking for lithium assets abroad to fulfil the promise of all-EV mobility by 2030
In 1848, when James W Marshall struck gold in Sutter’s Mill in Coloma, California, what followed was an influx of 300,000 settlers from the rest of the US and abroad. Nearly two centuries later, the world has set its eyes on three South American nations — Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile — that are arousing curiosity for huge reserves of a silvery-white chemical element that can change the future of urban mobility.
While the settlers in California were ready to kill for gold, lithium today has spawned a battle of sorts among countries.
India, which aspires to entirely migrate to electric vehicles (EVs) by 2030, is one of them.
It doesn’t produce lithium-ion batteries for EVs and is solely dependent on costly imports — spending $635 million between April-September of FY19 alone.
Mines secretary Anil Gopishankar Mukim tells ET Prime, “We do not import ore. However, we import lithium-ion batteries, as we do not have the capacity to extract lithium.” The country is now crafting a strategy to overcome its relatively weak beginning in battery manufacturing. It has set up a joint venture of state-owned companies, led by the National Aluminium Company (Nalco), and includes Hindustan Copper and Mineral Exploration Corporation (MECL) to hunt for the rare resource overseas.
The world has proven lithium reserves of around 100 million tonnes. However, during 2017, the total global production of lithium was only about 43,000 tonnes, mostly due to the time-consuming extraction process.
Kabil, the joint venture that the government has set up, is aggressively scouting for lithium assets abroad amid stiff competition from China and the US.
“Lithium assets in Bolivia, Peru, Argentina, and Australia are in [the] evaluation [stage]. The landed price in India will be competitive. Due to high domestic demand, India soon will be a stronger contender,” says Tapan Kumar Chand, managing director, Nalco.
According to Mukim, Kabil has been set up, but the proposal is with the government thinktank Niti Aayog for official approval. “Once it is done, we will send it to the Cabinet for approval. The government is keen if any private party shows interest.” he says.
Over a dozen companies, ranging from auto-component manufacturers to power- and energy-solutions providers, including Exide, Amara Raja Batteries, and Trinity Energy Systems, have rolled out plans to make lithium-ion batteries locally to ride the green-vehicles wave in the country.
Every kilowatt hour (kWh) of lithium-ion battery costs as much as $1,000-$1,500. Tesla uses about 100kWh batteries. However, prices have come down significantly and it is estimated that within a year’s time, they would be hovering around $250 per kWh.
According to Benchmark Minerals, a consulting agency, lithium hydroxide in China goes for around $24,750 a tonne, while the midpoint price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has fallen to $22,000 a tonne. Spodumene, a lithium containing minerals of industrial value, has been trading at $1,800 a tonne throughout 2018.
Domestic manufacturing can bring this down further.
According to industry experts, the country’s domestic market for EV batteries alone could be worth as much as $300 billion by 2030. Since the battery accounts for about one-third of the price of an EV, bringing down battery costs by rapidly scaling production and standardising battery components could be a key goal for the country’s automotive sector and its drive towards clean fuel.
As domestic battery-manufacturing capabilities mature, and supply chains are established, India will also have the opportunity to produce both battery cells and packs, while restricting imports to only the cathode or its raw materials from mineral-rich regions.
According to a recent study by the Niti Aayog, if India makes both cells and packs and imports only cathodes (depending on the technology used), it stands to capture nearly 80% of the total economic opportunity that EVs offer, which translates into ₹9.3 lakh crore to ₹13.7 lakh crore.
CUTTING THE CRUDE IMPORT BILL
If India manages to acquire lithium assets and bring the metal at a competitive price, it would also deliver economic and social benefits from lower oil imports, better public health, and integration of renewable energy supplies into the electric grid.
This will also have a positive impact on the country’s balance of trade.
Even though India’s electric mobility policies are likely to necessitate significant imports of batteries and their components or raw materials as the country scales up its manufacturing capacity, the resultant fall in oil-import costs is likely to more than offset the cost of these imports.
Concluding its study, the Niti Aayog notes that India could save nearly ₹4 lakh crore-₹5 lakh crore if it imports lithium rather than oil.
India has done nothing except for an empty announcement on 2030. If we have say 20% new car sales in EV by 2030, that shall be realistic… But, the stock markets shall discount the losers in the whole supply chain very much earlier…as stock markets are global in nature… And markets know that just because ice related sectors have a good MS in some developing countries, it does not warrant a buy order in them when the whole world is moving the opposite direction…
Wont the government loose so much of taxes? and how that money would be recovered? This may explain the reason government going slow on EV
taxes… If they have the will, they can recover the taxes on EV sales… Firstly, there is zero infra and preparation for an EV world… Secondly, there is a zero will to do it…
Nothing is going to happen in medium term… We might see a few EVs on the roads earliest by 2023-24 and something meaningful by 2028.
Disprution mostly always follow s curve… If ev is a disruption i am sure 2022 should be the inflection point or may be even before
Auto stock returns in 2018…
Auto companies with successful transition to EVs will benefit.
2019 will be the death of the hybrid car.
It’s all electric from here on.
Toyota Prius vs. Tesla: US sales since 2012
Cars still serve 2 purposes
One as a means of transport and second as a status symbol
In uk, Uber drivers liked Prius due to cost versus value as a Uber driver. As many Uber cars are Prius, they have fallen a lot as a status symbol
I don’t think anyone wants to see themselves driving a Prius
Plus cost of Prius and cost of Tesla have a very big difference. The right comparison to Tesla would be an equally expensive car not Prius however they are selling a lot more of Tesla cars compared to a Jaguar for instance