Dhinakaran Portfolio


(Dhinakaran) #61

Got out of Yes Bank completely.


(Dhinakaran) #62

Added more KRBL. Actively watching out financial space since there are no financial stocks after exiting YES. Having a tracking position in Edelweiss


(Ajith) #63

May I know the reason for your exit in Yes Bank? Just to know the rationale.


(Dhinakaran) #64

@ajithganesan I have been holding to it for last 3 years. The NPA already started to kick in. Since the bank is predominantly lending to corporate, the probability of assets becoming NPA is more. Also the divergence from RBI is more concerning. Banking is a leveraged business. Any considerable NPA is a huge blow to the net profit.The provisions already doubled. It might be a rough road ahead. Adding to that, bank has good exposure to Fortis.
Since there are better opportunities out there, i decided to pull out. The bank may come out of this blip strongly. It is more of a decision owing to personal comfort. It has been more than 2X for me.


(Dhinakaran) #65

Deploying cash actively. Added more KRBL and Greenply


(Dhinakaran) #66

Added more KRBL and Alembic… This is how the portfolio stands.

Stock Name Allocation
KRBL 22
AVANTIFEED 13
PIIND 12
MOTHERSUMI 9
TATAELXSI 9
APLLTD 8
GREENPLY 8
EDELWEISS 5
AJANTPHARM 4
GARWALLROP 4
AMARAJABAT 3
CCL 3

(Kumar Saurabh) #67

@Dhinakaran Great set of companies buddy. Ine question, any specifuc reason for prefering grernply over centurply? Valuation or something else? Also, on historical performance, mgmt quality/integrity , future potential , whats your take on greenply vs centuryply. Disc: Hold small position in centuryply n hence interested from competitive analysis view


#68

@Dhinakaran,
How has your PF performed in the last year and 3 years both only equity returns and debt included weighted returns? I see that you are doing lot of churn (not suggesting it is a bad strategy) so curious.


(Dhinakaran) #69

I think enough of the discussion already available in value picker itself. I chose Greenply because i feel it is better valued. Point to note is the plywood demand is going to be subdued owing to sluggish real estate sector and the earnings will remain flat for sometime.


(Dhinakaran) #70

@drgrudge " I see that you are doing lot of churn (not suggesting it is a bad strategy) so curious." - On a lighter note, I think i need to go back in time and explain it to myself that it is :slight_smile: The whole thread is a record of what I did in stock markets from the initial days. Sadly, I don’t have any degree in finance, I was pulled in to stock market by moneycontrol.com. I used to buy every recommendation that appears in money control and initially it felt like making money was so easy. At some point of time I had around 50 companies in my portfolio. Then I started reading books on investing and interestingly i found value picker. I used this forum to document my Portfolio time to time. What ever churning you see here is because I started to go through the annual reports and then decided if I need to hold it or sell it to cut down the number of companies in the portfolio. Luckily i had good companies in the initial days (Like KRBL, Avanti, PI etc) and continue holding those companies. There are few companies that I got out because either it is a commodity (E.g - HPCL) or I don’t understand the business. PI did not move anywhere in the last three years and I am still holding to it since there is no change in the underlying business quality though there me temporary blips/near term headwinds.It was quite a learning experience and the portfolio is still work in progress. My recent exit, YES Bank is 2X and I am not clear on the whole NPA saga. As far as returns are considered, I am lucky enough to double my portfolio (Thanks to Avanti, KRBL etc). As far as debt fund is considered it has a CAGR of around 9%. Also I take NIFTY PE ratio as reference to find if the market is overbought or not. Based on it I will move money from Equity to Debt. Around 11K i sold sizable chunk of the equity and I was able to sell part of my portfolio at the peak. I redeployed the cash in the recent correction.So far it is quiet an amazing experience and I see a long long way to go :slight_smile:


(Dhinakaran) #71

Few changes in the portfolio. Completely exited KRBL on the day when the news on the management issue came out. Added Edelweiss, Avanti, Ajanta, CCL and motherson in the recent fall. This is how the portfolio looks now.

Amararaja is in wait and watch mode. Actively looking at Yash and CERA. Good part of the portfolio is still in cash. I will deploy it if there are any further crash in the price.

PIIND 14
TATAELXSI 14
APLLTD 13
EDELWEISS 12
AVANTIFEED 10
MOTHERSUMI 10
GREENPLY 7
AJANTPHARM 6
CCL 6
GARWALLROP 6
AMARAJABAT 4

(Dhinakaran) #72

Came out of Greenply. Bumped up CCL. No major changes. Equity is now at 27% and Debt is at 73%. Will actively buy when there are opportunities.

Stock Allocation
APLLTD 14
PIIND 14
TATAELXSI 14
EDELWEISS 12
AVANTIFEED 11
MOTHERSUMI 11
CCL 10
AJANTPHARM 7
GARFIBRES 6

(Susindar) #73

Hi Dhinakaran. Can you please advise on the type of debt securities you buy? Is it traded on the market? What is the interest rates on such debt instruments?


(Dhinakaran) #74

I stick to bank FDs and GILT funds. If there is an opportunity I will move money from FDs to Stocks.Nothing beats Bank FDs in Liquidity. You can withdraw it the moment you want. Regarding returns, the GILT funds will be 1 to 1.5% points more than the conventional FD interest rates over a period of time.


(Dhinakaran) #75

Call it luck :slight_smile: I was extremely lucky to completely exit from YES bank. One thing I learned is, you can be as much confident you possibly can but you cannot predict what happens to a stock. YES & KRBL are good examples. That is why Diversifying is extremely important. Portfolio moving sideways. Not much movement in the last few months. Have been building on the debt portfolio side and Equity Debt is around 24:76 currently.

Portfolio has 10 stocks. Planning to move it to 13. Looking at YASH, Chola Finance and TVS Motors and CERA. I will start to add gradually in the existing portfolio.


(ramanhp) #76

Can you give more details on GILT funds please ? Some good names?
Also, have you ever invested in arbitrage funds?


(Dhinakaran) #77

HDFC Gilt and PPFAS Liquid fund


(Hitesh Patel) #78

Great going Dhinakaran.

You are too modest in attributing your yes bank exit to luck.

Having read your thread it comes across very clear that you have a very definite process in place and you keep applying it regularly in trimming/exiting some stocks. I see that you have been able to apply this process to time your exits to perfection.

Great going and its been a great learning for me too. The more simple things are the more likely they are likely to work. The simplicity of your process is great to see and learn.

regards
hitesh.