Deepak Fertilizers and Petrochemicals

Dated : 25th May 2020

Fund raising through equity? - The company already has Debt: 2,909Cr -

High Borrowings and i don’t see fixed assets growing.

Borrowing are more than that of company’s asset

image

Balance Sheet : Trade payable and receivables are increasing - am not sure how company is planning to manage this.

Disclosure : Am not comfortable as per my analysis so exited.
Will see how the management given opportunity in covid manage their debts.
Am not an SEBI analyst, this is not a recommendation to buy or sell…

1 Like

Q4FY20 results conference call transcript -

Covid - impact on operations is minimal now. But logistics and maintenance remains challenging bcs of non avialbility of people

Dahej plant - completed 1 year and operating at 65% capacity

CNA - normal with some slowdown in DNA

IPA - Q1FY2021 complete turnaround bcs of hand sanitizer requirement

Sanitizer product launch - baby steps and entering into B2C

TAN - last year infra prohects impacted bcs of flooding and slowdown in infra bcs of govt funds not reaching. Q1FY21 is sluggish start. Cement and limestone was also impacted in Covid scenario

Fertilizer - CNB business model is getting established in Q3 and Q4 of year passed.
Strategy -
Moving from comodity to crop specific fertilizers
Focus on customer and not on dealers
pricing based on value and not competition
Improvement seen in - invocing, realisation and above all premium pricing in Q3/Q4
brand building and getting sustainable premium pricing

Projects - Covid delays bcs of governament clearence and people availbility
- Gas price fall is helping for IRR

Q4 Reuslts highlights -
- EBIDTA margins improved from 6.8% to 9.2%
- company doing away from trading business to focus on high value business
- Rupee fluctuation more in Q4 due to covid and company is using its hedging facility effectively
- during subdued market company is focusing on marketing initiatives

Sanitizer Launch (Sanjay Gupta) -
- IPA based sanitizer
- pack sizes from 250 ml to tanker load
- distribution network being worked out
- mushrooming of many small suppliers bcs of current demand
- contract manufacturer’s being looked out

QnA -

IPA (industry size/impports from China/prices etc)
- market size 180 to 190K in pre covid scenario. Current demand is about 220K due to covid. Demand may stable at high level bcs of increased sanitization needs
- dont have hand sanitizer specific number for IPA. IPA used in hand sanitizer is small number overall
- 70 to 80% product still goes to pharma segment
- prices around 800 USD at CSR (?). It reached to high of 1600 USD per ton and now its stabilizing at 1300 to 1400 USD. Prices driven by global demand
- 180 to 190 K demand. Capacity of DFPCL is 75K and addittion of another 30K under way. Still there is import scope after capacity utilization
- raw material prices down including energy prices.
- hard to predict demand and prices in medium to long term since not clear on how much more time Covid situation will remain
- pre covid down cycle will perhaps be not seen in future
- 15K to 18K per ton contribution to margin at avg prices of 900 to 1000 USD price
-
Amonia Project -
- Somer delays bcs governmaent clearence and people availability
- Gas prices are softened and substantial saving can be expected on RM side so vaibility of project is improved
- Sustanibility in CNB - price premium is there and company is hopeful is to increase this premium. Smarttek product response has given confidence. More capacity is available as of now at Smartek so company has operating leevrage - with price and operrations leverage more scope for margin improvement

Fertilizer
- sustanilbility of margins in Smartek business - in competition also company has maintained its premium. Bcs of demand from farmers bcs of value advantage is more. So there is more scope for price hike.

Capex plan for FY21 - (IPA and fertilizers doing good)
- short term period - debt will go down.
- Amonia project is on its way, and have Capex plans

Debt - 2100 odd Cr on long term and 700 odd Cr on short term side.
- 850 Cr for Amonia project
- 430 Cr term loan for Dahej plant
- rest of debt is for fertilizer business
- short term - 170 Cr for Industrial Chemicals, 80 to 90 Cr of working capaital debt against TAN and rest in fertilizers business
- trading margins in speciality ferrtilizers is in lower to mid teens. In Bulk segment if we are not able to produce to meet up demand margin equals plain vanila product margins or higher
- trading volume is 6 to 8 ton for fertilizers
- Moratorium is used only for AMonia debt and no other debt has used this facility

180 Cr right issue -
- board of advisors asked not to speak on rights issue. Once board allows can speak about it

2 Likes

[Nitric Acid Market Size, Share & Trends Report](javascript:void(0))

Nitric Acid Market Size, Share & Trends Analysis Report By Application (Fertilizers, Adipic Acid, Nitrobenzene, Toluene Di-isocyanate, Nitrochlorobenzene), By Region, And Segment Forecasts, 2020 - 2027

Report Overview

The global nitric acid market size was valued at USD 24.0 billion in 2019 and is anticipated to register a CAGR of 3.3% from 2020 to 2027. Increasing demand for adipic acid to formulate nylon resins and fibers for automotive interior manufacturing is identified as a key market driver. It is widely used as a precursor for the production of nylon 6,6, which is extensively used in the automotive sector globally.

One of the key applications of nitric acid is the formulation of adipic acid. Nylon, which is formulated from adipic acid, is extensively used by automobile manufacturers. Nylon products are used in the automotive industry as a substitute for heavy metal components. Vehicular weight reduction leads to more fuel economy due to low vehicular mass and thereby leads to low carbon emissions due to lesser fuel consumption. Growing environmental concerns lead to stringent regulations in developed regions such as North America and Europe, owing to which automotive manufacturers increasingly adopt lightweight materials. This is expected to drive the demand for nylon 6, 6 over the forecast period.

U.S. nitric acid Market

To learn more about this report, request a free sample copy

Automotive manufacturers in the U.S. are increasingly using polymer matrix composites to achieve fuel economy and to adhere to Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) regulations. These regulations define standards for automobile manufacturers, which state minimum average fuel efficiency for different models and makes. U.S. and Japan dominated the global lightweight automotive materials market owing to technological advancements and the presence of numerous vehicle manufacturing companies operating in the respective countries.

Furthermore, the market for nitric acid is driven by the growing applications of polyurethane foams. Toluene di-isocyanate (TDI) is a nitric acid intermediate which is used for manufacturing elastomers, polyurethane foams, floor and wood coatings and finishes, foam plastics, lacquers, insulation materials, and polyurethane foam coated fabrics. Flexible foams account for over 85.0% of the total TDI consumption, whereas the remaining is used for other polyurethane products, including adhesives, sealants, coatings, and elastomers. Increasing consumption of polyurethane among end-use industries such as automotive, construction, and furniture is expected to drive the use of TDI, thus positively impacting the demand for nitric acid worldwide.

A traditional method of formulating nitric acid is through the oxidation of ammonia. Ammonia is oxidized with air to extract the product along with water in the presence of a catalyst. The product is then oxidized with excess air to receive nitrogen dioxide, which is then absorbed in water to extract nitric acid in solution form.
Ammonia is the key raw material used for the manufacturing of nitric acid. Ammonia manufacturing is primarily concentrated in countries such as China, India, the U.S., and Russia on account of the availability of large reserves of natural gas. The chemical is manufactured in various grades, including a commercial form that constitutes 68% nitrogen dioxide. Easy accessibility and access to the product has led to the establishment of several nitric acid manufacturers across the globe.

Report Coverage & Deliverables

PDF report & online dashboard will help you understand:

  • Competitive benchmarking
  • Historical data & forecasts
  • Company revenue shares
  • Regional opportunities
  • Latest trends & dynamics

[Request a Free Sample Copy](javascript:void(0))

The Grand Library - BI Enabled Market Research DatabaseClick on image to enlarge

Application Insights

About 80.0% of nitric acid is consumed for formulating fertilizers such as ammonium nitrate, calcium ammonium nitrate, potassium nitrate, and nitrophosphates on a global scale. Furthermore, a certain portion of ammonium nitrate is utilized for producing urea-based ammonium nitrate and other related fertilizers. There has been a huge demand for nitrogen fertilizers formulated from ammonium nitrate over the past few years, which, in turn, drives the overall market.

Adipic acid is another major application of nitric acid. It is extensively used to produce nylon fibers and resins. This polymer composite is widely demanded from automakers globally for manufacturing vehicle components, thereby replacing heavy metal components. Increasing use of composites in automobiles is expected to drive adipic acid consumption, thus impacting the nitric acid market growth.

The rising popularity of polymer composites in the U.S. on account of the increasing importance of using lightweight materials and fuel economy is expected to drive the demand for adipic acid. As a result, the U.S. market for nitric acid is expected to register a significant growth rate over the forecast period.

Nitrobenzene is a precursor to aniline and is a key application of nitric acid. Major applications of the product include formulating pharmaceutical products, aramid fiber, and polyurethane foams, among others. Increasing use of the above-mentioned products in industries, including automobile and construction is expected to drive the demand for nitrobenzene over the forecast period. The robust manufacturing base for aniline in China is expected to boost the demand for nitric acid in nitrobenzene formulations in the coming years.

Regional Insights

The North America market is projected to witness significant growth over the forecast period owing to the presence of a large number of multinational chemical manufacturers in the U.S. The nitric acid market is expected to further reflect high growth due to the rapid development of industries such as construction, automobile, agriculture, and furniture. These industries require high-quality nitric acid to formulate fertilizers and nylon. Furthermore, there has been an increasing demand for ammonium nitrate from the mining industry to formulate explosives, which, in turn, drives the overall market growth.

Germany houses some of the largest automobile manufacturers in the world. Key companies include Volkswagen, BMW, Daimler AG, Adam Opel, and Ford-Werke GmbH. This resulted in high demand for nylon products for automobile interiors and component manufacturing in the country. However, as of 2020, the industry reflected an all-time low production of around 4.7 million vehicles in 2019. This was mainly due to the rising trade tension between China and the U.S., which impacted the foreign markets and thereby resulted in low demand.

Global nitric acid Market

To learn more about this report, request a free sample copy

Central and Eastern Europe are among the largest producers of nitric acid, thereby driving the regional market. Furthermore, the growing chemical market in Poland and Russia is expected to drive the European market. Russia is a leading exporter of arms and hence witnesses high demand for ammonium nitrate, thus positively impacting the market growth. Robust manufacturing base for fertilizers in Russia on account of the availability of raw materials such as ammonia is also anticipated to have a positive impact on the market.

Moreover, in 2014, the Indian government declared Draft National Chemical Policy, intended to increase the share of the chemical sector in the country’s GDP from 3% in 2014 to 6% by 2020. This regulatory move is expected to promote the production of chemicals such as nitrobenzene, TDI, and adipic acid, which is expected to drive the Asia Pacific market over the forecast period. In addition, the growth of the fertilizer market in India on account of regulatory support aimed at increasing the production capacity of urea and other agrochemicals is expected to drive the demand for nitric acid.

Nitric Acid Market Share Insights

Nitric acid is primarily consumed captively on-site, which accounts for over 90% globally. However, 10% of the merchant portion has little impact on the overall trade. Companies such as CF Industries and Yara International are the major consumers of the product for formulating fertilizers, as they are the largest global manufacturers for fertilizers. Top international players collectively account for a market share of over 35.0%. CF Industries has four nitric acid production facilities in Donaldsonville, Louisiana, the largest nitrogen fertilizer production complex in the world. It also has two production houses in Port Neal, Iowa, and another two in Verdigris and Woodward, Oklahoma.

Report Scope

Attribute Details
Base year for estimation 2019
Actual estimates/Historical data 2016 - 2018
Forecast period 2020 - 2027
Market representation Volume in Kilotons, Revenue in USD Million, and CAGR from 2020 to 2027
Regional Scope North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, Central & South America, Middle East & Africa
Country Scope U.S., Canada, Mexico, Russia, France, Poland, Ukraine, China, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Thailand, Brazil, Egypt
Report coverage Volume and revenue forecast, company share, competitive landscape, growth factors and trends
15% free customization scope (equivalent to 5 analyst working days) If you need specific information, which is not currently within the scope of the report, we will provide it to you as a part of customization

Segments Covered in the Report

This report forecasts volume and revenue growth at global, regional, and country levels and provides an analysis of the latest industry trends in each of the sub-segments from 2016 to 2027. For the purpose of this study, Grand View Research has segmented the global nitric acid market report on the basis of application and region:

  • Application Outlook (Volume, Kilotons; Revenue, USD Million, 2016 - 2027)
    • Fertilizers
      • Ammonium Nitrate
      • Calcium Ammonium Nitrate
      • Others
    • Adipic Acid
    • Nitrobenzene
    • Toluene di-isocyanate
    • Nitrochlorobenzene
    • Others
  • Regional Outlook (Volume, Kilotons; Revenue, USD Million, 2016 - 2027)
    • North America
      • The U.S.
      • Canada
      • Mexico
    • Europe
      • Russia
      • France
      • Poland
      • Ukraine
    • Asia Pacific
      • China
      • Uzbekistan
      • Kazakhstan
      • Thailand
    • Central & South America
      • Brazil
    • Middle East & Africa
      • Egypt

Happen to see this article. so adding it here for investors notice.

https://www.iiasadvisory.com/single-post/2020/05/25/Deepak-Fertilisers-Preying-on-the-market-price

Disclosure: Do not have any investment here.

Phenomenal results from Deepak Fertilizers.

https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/b39b5a5e-0162-40b0-8b08-ddec01dfbf85.pdf

Profit jumps from 11 Crs in June 2019 to 121 Crs in June 2020

Some interesting comments from management - COVID-19 pandemic impacted the production of NP and NPK products at Taloja for few days in the month of March and April 2020. With extensive farmer and channel connect through digital marketing initiatives under restricted movement conditions, the Company was able to connect with 7000+ dealers and retailers through digital meeting. Despite the challenges due to COVID19, the Company exceeded its internal sales targets in both Bulk & Specialty fertiliser

IPA revenues increased by 178% y-o-y to Rs. 196 Crores in Q1 FY21. IPA sales volumes increased by about 49% y-o-y. Improved margins were driven by an unprecedented surge in IPA demand on the back of the increased awareness of use of IPA in hand sanitizer & disinfectant along with increase in International IPA prices. DFPCL also forayed into IPA based ‘Hand Sanitizer’ space to combat COVID-19 pandemic in April 2020 (IPA sales are still a small part of their overall sales though and bulk of the growth seems to have come from their Bulk & Specialty fertiliser segment)

Major raw materials prices declined compared to Q1 FY2020

Conference call on 4th August

Another thing to note is that sales is still lower than June 2018 sales of 2226 Crs
image

Disclosure: No holdings at this time

The company is consolidating its Trading business. They want to keep it strictly need basis and focus more on own production volumes and high margin products. Hence the impact on topline, which can continue for a lot of quarters.

IPA is the game changer, we need to track the IPA price to monitor the performance of the Company. Can any body provide details on movement of IPA pricing.

1 Like

Pre-Covid IPA cfr was $780-$800 per tonne. Post-Covid saw a peak of $1600, settling at $1300-$1400. While IPA is a strong tailwind, anyone looking to enter the script purely on basis of IPA wouldn’t be prudent. You can look at charts of Rain, HEG and Graphite when Carbon black prices shot up.

Updates from the Investor’s call.

  1. General :
  • Best quarter in the history of the company, owing to tailwinds of IPA. However, value added product ‘Smartek’ contributed ~40% to the overall EBITDA during the quarter
  • Debt to Equity stands roughly at 1.00 now, owing to Debt reduction during the quarter
  • Similar levels of operational profitability can be expected in the upcoming quarters as well
  1. RIL move to IPA capacity (During AGM, RIL had announced foray into IPA facilities; an Investor asked for a comment on the same)
  • We are keeping close watch on the Industrial trends and announcements, however, it is too early to comment on the development
  1. Ammonia Project
  • Only construction of the project remains, which can take 24-26 months, from current standstill. However, because of labour shortage, management is still assessing the situation and keeping close watch on the availability by liaising with Construction vendor/contractor
  • As per assessment done by consultants (I strong assume they are McKinsey), the raw material cost can be brought down from $450 (including freight and transportation) to $260
  1. Other expansion plans
  • TAN capacity expansion is being re-assessed owing to disruption in mining sector because of the pandemic
  1. Rights Issue
  • Under Board’s consideration, advised not to comment on the same
2 Likes

Just to add, on the debt front they repaid about Rs. 300-400 cr of debt during the quarter. IPA expansion plans have been put on hold as they want to understand the long-term viability of the industry, in terms of pricing and demand.

Disclosure: Invested
Regards
SJ

It is difficult to predict how long the tail wind for IPA will continue. As per concall the monthly demand of IPA for Sanitizer has increased from 200 Tonnes to 2000 tones per month i.e increase of 10 times. However it has now stabilized to around 800 T . The demand for Pharmaceutical is however constant. If we roughly presume that demand of IPA for sanitizer satablises at 1000T per month then annual consumption comes to around 12000 T.
Earlier DFPCL was the sole producer of IPA in India but now Deepak Nitrite has also started producing the IPA and the newly commissioned plant has capacity of 30000 T per Year.
So against demand increase of 10000 (12000-2000) we have supply of 30000 in India.
We will have to just see the Global demand supply of IPA.
Some one in the Concall was also referring that Reliance may also venture into this segment but the size of overall IPA market in India is too minuscule for Reliance to enter.

Price USD 1200 per ton roughly converts to Rs 90000 per ton and total IPA demand in India is around 225000 Ton so opportunity size is roughly Rs 2025 Cr in India

1 Like

Total domestic demand Pre-Covid was 180,000 tonnes. Peaked at 200,000 tonnes. Company’s capacity is 74000 tonnes. Deepak Nitrite’s capacity is 30000 tonnes. A headroom of approx 96,000 tonnes is still available for domestic players to ramp up/capitalize on which is currently catered by imports.

2 Likes

Deepak nitrite is setting up additional 30000 ton capacity . Interesting to see if Deepak fertilizer also go ahead and do more IPA capacity which makes supply and demand met locally and price war with importers start intensify

Regards,
Sathish

Deepak Nitrite IPA’s additional capacity will come on stream in Q1FY22. Also, Deepak Fertilizers planned Capex for IPA is 25,000 tonnes. Both the companies have petitioned to the government for remedial protection against chinese imports of IPA.

Also government is planning to ban the import of TAN due to the lebanon blast, if that happens it will increase TAN prices and Deepak Fertilizers is the sole manufacturer of TAN in India.

Just to add in Q1FY21 IPA realisations were 120 rupees per litre and currently it is at 95 rupees per litre.

5 Likes

Does any one knows why Deepak fertilizers and petrochemicals have got huge debt and pledged their shares. Are they coming up with new product?

image

Source : DFPCL FY19-20 AR

They did mention that a feasibility study is going on and as of now they don’t have any plans for increase in IPA capacity. I was also surprised to see this in AR.
Need get it clarified in during AGM/Q2 call.

Regards,
Raj
Disc: Invested

It is due to the expansion of Ammonia facility. Also, promoters have not pledged their share it is due to Non-Disposal Undertaking which was been provided by promoters to IFC for CCDs issued by a wholly owned subsidiary.

Disclosure: Invested.

I agree, even I was surprised to see it. Looks like the promoters never had a plan to shelve off the expansion plans in IPA and TAN, which is a huge red flag according to me as these are extremely low ROCE / ROIC businesses.

Disclosure: Invested.

This means that the debt they have is being invested in expansion of IPA and ammonia plants which are low ROCE generating projects.