In the most recent Oct 2016 transript, Mr Garg mentions that the FDA approval ( which will take ~ 24 months ) will open up the USAID market for them.
I went through the https://www.unfpaprocurement.org website and accessed the USAID funded condom orders.
Here are some of the observations
Over the last 21 years USAID has placed condom orders ( male & female ) worth $498 million which translates to about 166 crores a year on an average ( assuming an exchange rate of $70).
This market is currently unavailable for Cupid. If it gets a 20% market share , we are looking at an additional revenue stream of 33cr per year about ~24 months down the line.
Here is the USAID data file USAID.xlsx (292.1 KB)
When you look at the master database of ALL orders across ALL funding agencies ( not just USAID) over a span of 21 years it appears that there are 163 NON US markets of which CUPID has tapped only 30 - this means 133 Non-US markets Cupid has not even opened its account.
So even if the US FDA approval takes time there are still untapped Non-US markets to get into for Cupid.
Going forward there are multiple revenue streams that are visible to me. The odds that at least some of them will fire seem pretty high to me.
- Push on the Domestic B2C business
- Repeat Orders from the existing 30 export markets
- New Orders from the untapped 133 export markets
- Domestic Orders from India