Commodity and Cyclical Plays


(kanvgarg123) #512

Thanks! Cement stocks have correctly sharply over past few months which is why I wanted your views on cement to check if something underlying has changed and if I am missing out something :slight_smile:


(malayruparel) #513


(Kushal Masand) #514

Hi Jiten,

If you don’t mind then can you please share your bets in these sectors…?


(sowrabh) #515

No …Needle coke manufacturers are only about 3-4 globally (as said by HEG’s management)… I think 3 of these are from Japan and 1 from US …Needle coke is fully imported by GI and HEG


(Jiten Parmar) #516

Just see the thread from start. Everything has been shared.


(mntolia) #517

How do you keep track of the overall availability of supply of various commodities?


(Raj A A) #519

Business Std Today Edition


(SD007) #520

(chetanbharath) #521

Hi, would you suggest entering IMFA currently? What is your outlook on the ferro chrome play and could china flood south korean market because of adverse policy from USA? This could make life tough for IMFA.


(Jiten Parmar) #522

I have added the FerroChrome players recently. I think risk-reward in favor. Made basket of 2 integrated players.


(vishal kumar) #523

Old but relevant article for ferrochrome players…like IMFA and Balasore!!!

Soaring demand in China for ferrochrome, used in the production of steel, is helping Indian ferrochrome producers like Indian Metals and Ferro AlloysBSE 3.61 % (IMFA) and Balasore AlloysBSE 3.15 %. Given the firm demand and prices in China for ferrochrome (FC) and limited global supply , most of the producers of the alloy have diverted their sales to China, resulting in supply shortage in the country.

Read more at:
//economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/55592408.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst


(nil_71) #524

I saw in all the Steel Mags, Ferro-chrome Prices remaining Firm.


(Raj A A) #525

As per IMFA press release, contract price for Q4FY18 has settled less when compared to Q3FY18.May be Q4 results will be tad lower .Q-O-Q incremental revenue in Q3 & Q4 FY17 may not repeat in Q3 & Q4 FY18.


(Jiten Parmar) #526

This has worked out well. One is up almost 40% and 2nd one 25% in less than 2 weeks.


(SD007) #533

https://www.edelweiss.in/research/tactical-buy--indian-metals-and-ferro-alloys-ltd-e4ee56.pdf


(Mridul) #534

In case anyone is interested in hospitality industry cycle, can check this post.


(phreak) #535

Aluminium is up and about. Up 15% in the last couple of weeks and also trading at 6 year highs. Easing of trade tensions and sanctions on Rusal has done wonders.


(narenarora) #536

@jitenp

This is with reference to 70% acquisition of Zimbabwe Alloys Ltd (ZAL) by Balasore . As per disclosures ZAL has chrome ores of about 72 Million MT (effectively 50Mn MT for Balasore). The acquisition price paid by Balasore is approx. USD 92 million. This works out to about USD 1.8 per mt for chrome ore. As per edelweiss report shared few days ago on this forum the price of Zimbabwe origin chrome ore is in the range of USD 360-380. Even after considering mining cost of USD 100 (just an wild assumption) the equation works out to be too good to be true. Am I missing something ?
Nothing mentioned about royalty and taxation in the disclosure by Balasore.

regards
DIsc: Tracking not invested


([email protected]) #537

Hi @jitenp, Would like to know your view on the copper play, I know you have exited but with my limited knowledge I still believe the copper play is still in a stage where we can get in and ride, your expertise view would be greatly helpful.


(Jiten Parmar) #538

I think copper as a commodity will continue to do well.