Is anyone following the strike at imfas plant?They price has corrected because of that. And additionally if anyone is following ferrochrome cycle, please share views.
imfa.pdf (962.2 KB)
Ferroalloys-outlook-november2017.pdf (1021.3 KB)
Slightly dated. Hope it helps.
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Any thread of jspl. I am also invested in it and can’t find a thread here. If it’s not there, then we should make one.
Youtube links to my interview on CNBC couple of days back.
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Good one Jiten. How do you approach the indepth study of the sector of interest? It would be great if you could take Infra-HAM as an example and walk through the process? Regards and Thanks.
@jitenp- This a great thread. I haven’t played heavily into cyclicals as part of my previous risk appetite but i have been following this thread for sometime. I am now slowly getting into it and your shared knowledge here has been great and thank you… Great interview and congrats…
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@jitenp Congrats on the interview. Great insights.
Personally, I have never invested in cyclicals in the past. First encountered the counter-intuitive approach of investing in cyclicals in Parag Parikh’s book some years back. However neither did I think deeply about it nor practically try it out.
Practically understood how to go about investing in cyclicals when I saw @Mehnazfatima posts in the recent sugar cycle. Then when @jitenp started this thread with his presentation - Many of the hazy points kind of connected together and formed a decent framework of how to go about investing in cyclicals.
Thanks and grateful for the teachings - @jitenp and @Mehnazfatima.
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Great interview @jitenp Your insights have been invaluable in getting me started into cyclicals. This forum is incredible with such wonderful and down to earth stalwarts. More power to Valuepickr!
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Great and congratulation.it was explained in very simple words and I have even started digging blogs and news for trigger.but need to learn more regarding cyclical.
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@jitenp - Congratulations !! Huge value addition to the knowledge of everyone especially in a area where there is not much content available - cyclical. Everybody talks quality & long term. Cyclical being low quality, not long term yet making lot of money. Thanks again.
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I disagree a bit here. Cyclical doesn’t mean low quality. And lot more stocks are cyclical than people think.
Cyclical investing is nothing but value investing.
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Hi Jiten,
Thanks for sharing your knowledge and experience. it is really helpful.
I just have a question regarding ur position in Ferroalloys
1.) You normally invest during peak pessimism…so would you say the Ferroalloy sector is undergoing that now ? Because from what i read and researched, peak pessimism was somewhere around June 2016 (OPM was negative for IMFA then). right after that price shot up 7x to 780 levels in tandem with ferrochrome prices (which went from $0.60/lb to $1.70/lb). Cycle peaked in April 2017 and since then FC prices have come down from $1.60/lb to $1/lb. A couple of links i have shared below indicates Chinese prices have dropped to $0.85-0.86 levels. Do you think there is still further price decreases on the cards and we should wait for max pessimism to enter or now is a good time ?
Your inputs would be highly appreciated. Thanks.
Congrats Jiten. Very articulate and crisp. Thanks for educating all of us on cyclicals.
Nalco aiming for higher revenue this year.
Additionally firm alumina prices going to help…
Disc - Invested in Nalco
Really liked your segment on cyclical value investing.
Have you looked at Selan Oil Exploration? It looks like a good asymmetric bet to me. I think the leverage will really shine through as Brent Crude has risen more in percentage terms than the stock, while the stocks’s PAT will rise more. Additionally, management has been talking about increased production since quite sometime - might finally come through in this year, could be an additional bonus. As for future oil production, they have a decent amount of reserves which they plan on monetizing. Also, they have a cash balance of 110 cr compared to 400cr market cap. Company pays a decent amount as a dividend (trailing 2.5%) - probably higher payout on higher EPS.
Slightly old(10th may) article about captive coal mine for Nalco. Talks about potential reduction in the energy cost probably starting from FY20. Also, plans for reducing raw material cost via initiative on caustic soda and bauxite. Plan appears promising to provide a jump up to bottom line from FY20 and FY21. However execution needs to be seen…
Some additional numbers on mutual fund holdings in past 6 quarters(source-moneycontrol)
| Quarter Ending | Mutual Fund holding |
|---|---|
| Dec’16 | 19.12 mn |
| Mar’17 | 20.36 mn |
| Jun’17 | 35.33 mn |
| Sep’17 | 56.84 mn |
| Dec’17 | 119.30 mn |
| Mar’18 | 126.760 mn |
Disc - Invested
Guys, does anyone know where i can track historical ferroalloy prices ? Trying to work on prices of different grades of Ferroalloy and match them with IMFA’s realized price and grade…