Hi @smant, As per my understanding, no India company produces needle coke. Cpc, which is a raw material for the Aluminium industry is different from needle coke
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Reported number are standalone therefore they are only for Indian capacity which 80,000 ton per annum, I do not think we should assume otherwise and calculate accordingly.
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Here is the revised calculations, based on 95% capacity utilization (76,000 MT) for the standalone entity. Revised Q3’FY18 realization for GE is USD 7,673 and needle coke, USD 1,472.
Graphite India Estimates for the one year period of FY19 (Apr-18 to Mar-19):
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The real question is how does one value such special situations. I am personally convinced that there is structural change we are observing in Graphite Electrode so comparing with past GE cycles may not provide much answers. Any views are welcome.
I have opened a new thread primarily on GE : Graphite India / HEG since the story deserves a separate thread altogether and would request contributions from all.
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Hi Jiten sir
R u positive on any commodity currently
Thanks
Mahesh
Something’s up in the commodity space (non-ferrous metals to be precise).
Hind Copper has broken out of trendline resistance with good price action. All charts are daily ones and EMA’s shown are 20/50/100/200.
Gravita (also Pondy Oxides & Nile in the lead space) has closed above crucial resistance and is out of downward trendline resistance earlier this week.
Graphite India broke out earlier this week as well
Nalco/Hindalco in the aluminium space yet to show similar strength though
Disc: Invested in all (except Hindalco)
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@jitenp For sugar I was following Anil Kumar Goel. He kept adding sugar on every dips. What could have been his rationale that he missed the top of the cycle?
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Anilji is a celebrated investor. I cannot comment on his rationale. Maybe, I am missing something.
Continue to be cautiously optimistic on metals, papers, chemical, cement, infra and capital goods. There could be different time horizons for each.
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@jitenp Don’t you think that this recent push for infra by the government should help cement companies? Number of contracts awarded by NHAI has risen 2 folds and the work will also start in some time?
The current capacity utilisation at aggregate level I read was closer to 67% which can shot up with additional road projects. What is your view?
Disc. I am holding Birla Corporation and looking to add Orient Cement
Cement is one sector, I have mentioned, earlier too, that I am positive from a medium term.
Thanks! Cement stocks have correctly sharply over past few months which is why I wanted your views on cement to check if something underlying has changed and if I am missing out something 
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Hi Jiten,
If you don’t mind then can you please share your bets in these sectors…?
No …Needle coke manufacturers are only about 3-4 globally (as said by HEG’s management)… I think 3 of these are from Japan and 1 from US …Needle coke is fully imported by GI and HEG
Just see the thread from start. Everything has been shared.
How do you keep track of the overall availability of supply of various commodities?
