I am learning Technicals and hence this question may be stupid too. Is this not a death cross? Your 50 day EMA is moving below 200 day EMA.
@tbhavesh : Death cross is when a lower term MA crosses below higher term MA. In Kotak this had happened few days back and now 50 DEMA is climbing up to cross 200 DEMA again. Moreover MA crossovers are a lagging indicator and action might start little early.
What does the chart of Rain Industries say? Are we close to bottom? Can the TA experts give some insight? If the question is improper, the moderators may please delete it.
20 yr log chart for Gic hf, quoting at arnd book value with long term roe of 18%
It’s still not very clear on Rain if bottom is made. As yet, at least no buy signals have come on monthly or weekly charts. Better support seen at 103-119. Breakdown of October monthly candle low also indicates more slide is possible.
An anomaly or beginning of a trend?
I saw a Mr. Prashant Jain Interview. He said its always a trend that inflows increase during overvaluation and is maximum at peak. It reduces during correction and inflows dry up totally at bottom. This makes MF manager task difficult due to redemptions.
However, if you notice last 1-2 years. Indian retail have done the opposite. During peak of Oct crash, MF inflows increased. Now it has become normal/average. will remain similar if market moves sideways. Incase market corrects viciously again, my guess is inflows will shoot up, contrary to the trend during 2008-2013 , which Mr. Jain mentioned. Somewhere i think Indian retail investors have become comfortable with equities. I know, many of my conservative, friends now doing SIP are absolutely comfortable to hold for 10-15 years …Just my 2 cents.
Reminds me of the Tyson quote:
Everybody has a plan until they’re punched in the face
Edelweiss a little too much in the news lately. A bit too much perhaps for 1 week? Curious to see if this is another repeat of Indian Bank placements few months back.
@phreakv6 Please can you elaborate what you mean by “…Curious to see if this is another repeat of Indian Bank placements few months back.” Not able to get the background so will appreciate if you can explain. I hold Edelweiss since quite some time so interested to know what you meant.
Daily Chart of Safari industries. After correcting by about 30-35% from peak, it appears that the price is forming a base near the 61.8% fib level. Recently, two bullish engulfing candles appeared ( flagged in green ) - indicating a possible reversal.
Views invited on my reading of the chart. Not an expert - just trying my hand
Disc - invested and no trades in the past 1 year
Safari on weekly has formed a falling wedge or converging triangle pattern and seems to be breaking out at 785-90 zone. Above last weeks peak at 809, should gain some impetus. Stcohrsi crossover done as a leading indicator to MACD. Once MACD crosses previous peaks target of 940-1000 may be re-tested.
Here is the williams AD line chart of nifty 50 as of today(18/12/208) closing.
The accumulation level has just crossed the 2018 august high levels when Nifty 50 reached 11700 lvls. despite nifty is down by allmost 7.5%. Lets see whether it sustains above this level. If it sustains we are about to see a good rally ahead.
Also India vix is at 15 lvls, a breakdown from the tight range of 17.5-20.5 for allmost 2.5 months.
HEG was seen failed to breakout the channel and the correction kicked in. Now the channel has been broken, it may lead to sub 3000s. If 3620 is not broken, the channel would be still valid.
Siemens (monthly) at a confluence of supports from previous tops made in '07, '11 and '14 and also 100 month MA. Has a near-term resistance at the downward trendline and 20/50 month MA.
The recent quarter performance was pretty decent. Q2/Q4 are seasonally strong quarters. December is a seasonally weak quarter. Performance in Q3 could show if Q2 is one-off.
There is a big divergence between price and earnings and the risk:reward I think is favourable going by the supports. Q3 performance should show the way and if it confirms, Q4 could be a life-time best (assumptions that need a few months wait for confirmation). Zero debt for a capital goods company with 75% promoter holding and the Siemens AG parentage are all a plus.
Risks: On an EV/EBITDA basis, company is at its cheapest in the last 5 years, despite performing well in the last 4 quarters.
Why is this a risk? There is a possibility that the company might perform well but could be undergoing a suppression in multiples which would in turn suppress expected return. The return ratios are mediocre and have fluctuated a lot which doesn’t warrant high multiples but the company has moat and longevity which could let the market sit on their hands for longer periods despite underperformance. The risk:reward will be very favourable if next two quarter performances confirm the trend. Since we are comparing everything here from last 10 years and looking at monthly charts, this is not a short-term trade by any means but extending the concept of trading to short/medium-term investments. The thesis and investment should be junked if the assumptions don’t hold.
Disc: Invested (unbiased?).
What is the moat for Siemens? How come it is having such erratic profitability despite there being a moat?
Demonetisation and GST had a big impact in the recent years on the capital goods sector. Capex has also been muted during the period the ratios have deteriorated. The ratios appear poor due to the cash build-up in the last 5 years which isn’t necessarily a very bad thing. When the capex cycle picks up, the ratios will look up, as it does in cyclical sectors like these. So in essence, the next few quarters will confirm if the capex cycle is turning or not. There are initial signs of it.
As for the moat, Siemens gets its technology from Siemens AG and is among the handful of players operating in the sector along with ABB, GE T&D, BHEL and to some extent Honeywell Automation (factory/building automation business). This and extreme cyclical nature will keep new entrants out and any and all new business will go to these players in the sector and it will remain an oligopoly which offers a collective moat to the players. Hope that makes sense.
How do you see ABB on charts, as it is one of the key competitor of Siemens.
Additionally ABB is going through its one of the major restructuring in the recent past.
They decided to hive off one of their legacy business division to Hitachi and focusing more on digitalization business.
Disclosure: I hold ABB shares since many years, keenly watching new developments how it affects company’s future earnings and growth, which can help to delink dependency on cyclical nature of Capex business?
@Hashims - ABB appears to be meandering along and I don’t see a structure to it which kept me out of it. I was trading Honeywell Automation as a capital goods bet before this but exited it early this month as it ran into resistance and got into Siemens which looked more interesting to maintain sectoral balance. I don’t know this sector much to be honest and trading a sector is how I get the initiative to learn about it, sort of like an internship. If ABB is going to become like Honeywell Automation in terms of shedding its capital intensive Heavy Electrical business and get into the asset-light digital automation business, I think it will clear the field further for Siemens/GE as BHEL already appears to be bleeding since 2013. I am certain you know a lot better having been invested in ABB for many years, so it would help us all if you provide your thoughts as well. Thanks!