Bull therapy 101-thread for technical analysis with the fundamentals


#907

Sun pharma, Lupin, DR.Reddy, Biocon and to lesser extent torrent pharma…

each one is getting massively accumulated into smart hands, thoughout october and more so last couple of days, specially today…

a very interesting post expiry and results period oncoming here…

but my favorite moneymaker , suven lifescience, is available at the end of a massive shakeout…! it has got a very high risk to slide down to 188, where the weekly bollinger band -2sd lies, none the less, the 200dma high low and olhc4 band in 220 to 210 region should be very difficult to breakthrough… well, about the reward, better not said without sounding delusional
given the runaway child this one is, exposure to this scrip should be taken in a cautious way…

disclosure… accumulating all


#908

@devaki.tripathy , this is gonna sound like a bit of wishful thinking…lol

but the spx, i think has a catch…
the current fall, indicates as we all know, a massive show of weakness after an upthrust…
so if this is distribution going on, most commonly what happens is there is a last point of supply formation, a lower high formation in the schematics wyckoffians follow…
generally, the rule is to short the market on that lpsy point, which initiates the mark down…

so i think the markets are likely to be volatile, launch a poor rally up somewhere, before the true mayhem really starts… elliot wave people call it B wave i guess…

here is a kiddish chart
https://www.tradingview.com/x/sUD1la8g/

also noting the swing vols, back in july there seems to be heavy capitulation with massive volumes…
i think market might hold for a while…

western traders i know of, are actually waiting for a December spike to short and write …

but then again, although not aligned to the moving averages in the chart, gold had a very similar pattern in a 5 year chart… strangely, it seems to be more accumulation now than distribution… after showing massive weakness…

are u interested in gold as an investment as of now??
where are u diversifying from here on?
i am very uncomfortable in any liquid debt instrument as of now…


(racingcar) #909

Why are you uncomfortable in liquid debt instruments? With rising rate of interests and short term maturities, isn’t it actually good to park your cash in liquid debt instruments?


(Hitesh Patel) #910

@Capsule91

I think with the kind of pounding the markets have received, there will be a lot of difficulty in restoring investor confidence in markets. A lot of portfolios have bled heavily. But in the near term I think weakening of crude prices would provide some termporary sentimental relief to markets. And if the USD was also to weaken along with lower crude prices it could provide a much needed stimulus for a rally. Because of the severe beating taken by markets I think the rallies would also face selling pressure off and on. So rally should take the form of a stop start rally maybe in form of some kind of a triangle or something similar.

A matter of concern is the state of a lot of global markets including the US markets. So if global cues are weak the Indian markets also may not make much headway inspite of the above mentioned tailwinds.

I have been bearish for quite some time now and remain so barring the relief rallies which might be used to trade stronger stocks. I still cannot see where market strength is going to come from as I cant see any sector showing true relative strength. Pharma and IT which were strong earlier now seem to be weakening.


(Devaki Nandan Tripathy) #911

Gold looks interesting. May initiate position only after it breaches $1300 conclusively. But morally I feel gold is a stupid investment being an unproductive asset even though sometimes market seems to think otherwise. So, in a bit dilemma.

No diversification as of yet. Took few positions in stocks which were showing strength in last two months but S/L got triggered in almost all of them. Now just Lupin, Goodricke and Aksh left without S/L triggered. Let’s see if they are able to hold fort or surrender.

Still more than 85% in liquid funds even though I am aware of the risks associated with it. Reminds me of the famous dialogue of the movie Big Short. :grinning:

where we take a bunch of Bs, bb’s and bbb’s that haven’t sold, and we put em in a pile and when the pile gets large enough, the whole is suddenly considered diversified and then the whores of the rating agency, give it a 92 / 93 percent AAA-rating, no questions asked…


(phreak) #912

Nifty IT around crucial 200 DMA. Looks to be taking support

Saregama - Re-testing multi-year C&H breakout support. Below support at present but might pulllback and consolidate

Bata - Re-testing breakout support

Sonata (Hourly) - RSI Oversold, MACD Crossover on the cards. Also around long-term support of 276 so a pullback and close above this support could be positive.

Disclosure/Disclaimer: I find these scrips fundamentally as well as technically favourable so I have started buying around these levels because risk:reward seems favourable. However, this doesn’t rule out further falls so be wary, be nimble with a S/L if solely trading.


(Devaki Nandan Tripathy) #913

Long unwinding in Tech seems to be happening not only in India but across the globe. Midcap IT like Persistent, Sasken have already breached 52 week low. Yesterday there was massive fall in tech shares like Microsoft/Intel/AMD/Netflix/Nvidia. At one point AMD was down almost 20%. There is lower probability of 200 DMA to hold in this scenario.

Momentum cuts both ways.


(phreak) #914

Persistent and Sasken have highly disappointed with results even with currency tailwinds. There is no excuse there to be buying/holding anymore and they have to revert to their historical valuations which means even their current prices are expensive. These are smallcaps and shouldn’t affect the index much. Some like TCS and Mphasis haven’t done badly (I don’t hold either). As always, am as much in as I am out so am varying parts bullish and bearish and my allocations reflect that. If it breaks 200 DMA, no more adding. I am looking to see if Sonata can be a value buy but will change my mind if results/dividend disappoints.


(Arun S G) #915

Most of these are service companies. Pl look at KPIT FA and TA, which has posted very decent numbers and is a product-oriented company in a space expected to grow much faster than the others ( automotive). Its current price is below all MA’s. When sentiment improves & demerger happens, this could recover faster than others.
Disc: Invested & Biased


(vb2400) #916

Dear Capsule,
As you had mentioned in your post dated Sep 4, 2018, CCL Products has indeed corrected and is now languishing at 225 levels. It is quite interesting to observe that despite a decent set of results for the last 2-3 quarters the stock has been continuously hammered. The promoters too have picked up approx. 3.48lac shares from the market since July 2018. Keeping a close watch. Your views on the technical aspect would be greatly appreciated

Disc:Invested. Planning to add more


#917

exercise caution… sugar stocks might look relatively strong… but the action seems to be describing, shortening of thrust… [andhra sugar is an exception, which seems to have exhausted its supply]

partial profit booking wouldnt be a bad idea…

disclaimer… no positions, not a recommendation.


(phreak) #918

Edelweiss looks to have hit 130 bit sooner than I thought and has bounced off from there

Ujjivan - This was a great save as I exited when I saw the support trendline not holding

But didn’t expect it to turn out this bad with a 50% fall from there


(phreak) #923

Karur Vysya Bank - Looks to be at long-term support and trading at 1x book. Net NPAs are reducing and so are the provisions. Reduction in provisions should directly flow through to the PAT. GNPA still high but its already in the price perhaps and at this point technically as well as fundamentally maybe not much to lose?

Saregama update - Breakout and currently at resistance both from the trendline and 200 DMA. Risk:Reward doesn’t seem favourable anymore. Think post results and consolidation above 550 could make it interesting again.

Guj Alkali update from this- Broke down as expected.

Tata Elxsi - Looks to be pulling back after taking support on 100 week MA. Results were very good but everything was baked in even in the last quarter when it was at 1400 levels. Now looks like a value buy at 22 P/E for a RoE of 37 and RoCE above 50 company.

Bata - Bounced off C&H breakout support last week. Now has squeezed out of the downward resistance trendline as well and is trading above 20/50/100/200 DMA.

Sonata update from here - Sonata as well had a breakout and has run into resistance trendline

Disc: I have/had positions in all the charts posted


(phreak) #926

@devaki.tripathy - Nifty IT has bounced off 200 DMA like a tennis ball :slight_smile:


(phreak) #928

These are for trades with specific timeframes, tight stops and specific targets. Risk:reward is not as favourable anymore so it has to be played based on what the ticker shows. At 200 DMA there was a large margin of safety (with a tight stop) is all I was saying. In other words, the wheel has already stopped and the next spin is a fresh story.


(Praveen Shekhar) #929

Great set of results from Escorts. W bottom on daily from 560-640 fro 80 point target from 640, i.e. 720 target. Weekly Stochrsi croos and impending one on monthly show start of momentum. Looks good. trading range shaded in rectangle.


(Praveen Shekhar) #930

absolutely but buy at 200 dma was also crucial support zone . Currently 15050 cross above blue line can add impetus. Weekly stochrsi cross also inspiring but as you said rightly, risk:reward significantly amplifies.


(Praveen Shekhar) #931

Yes bank starting to form a W bottom also on daily with MACD cross. (also on weekly). Once above 216-20 former resistance zone should move fast to 320-30 resistance on daily and blue trendline on weekly.


(phreak) #932

Page Inds (Hourly) - Looks to be making higher lows but the 200 EMA is flattening out the tops. I think a breakout or breakdown is imminent. The higher lows suggest a breakout. Results on 14th Nov. Fundamentals are as strong as they have ever been with entry into athleisure and kids segments.

VIP Inds - Out of the resistance trendline and consolidating. I quite like the fundamentals and so added during the recent corrections at support. Results on 14th Nov here as well which could make or break the rally from the bottom.


(Mahendra243) #933

Seems it has crossed the 220 resistance …seems some funds also latched upon to this…is the chart still showing the signs for upmove?