Bull therapy 101-thread for technical analysis with the fundamentals


(vb2400) #647

Ccl products seems to have bottomed out. Rsi and macd are showing positive undertone. Would love to hear your views on Wyckoff reaccumulation.


#648

excellent mentionā€¦

reaccumulation is going onā€¦

this is a scrip where the big players are playing with the retailā€¦
https://www.tradingview.com/x/kzK0gyXu/

noted the climactic stopping action at the resistances, this is a different stopping action , there were being preceded by high volume, buying at the support alsoā€¦ so basically, what i think is going on, the operators are buying low and selling partially high, and the sell is triggering shakeouts from the retail and more absorption and they are buying again at a lower supportā€¦

typical bag holding action as wyckoff said, which is one of my fav quotesā€¦
its like the big money is keeping a bag open and letting the world sell in to it, without triggering an uptrendā€¦

looking at the levels, the 100week wilder moving average has not been positively tested yet, while 200 week simple moving average has been, so might be further downside and retesting the supply levelsā€¦
lets wait for the change of character to start and this down trend channel to be broken out, that will indicate absorption is completeā€¦ there after enters on minor last point of support formation shakeouts would be idealā€¦
overall a positive structure, waiting for the downtrend to exhaust and change of behavior showing rallies on demand would be very important to validate this theory, where letting the price fly up to see demand take control is more important than buying low ā€¦

241 might be testedā€¦

disclaimerā€¦ not positions, not tracking


(manivannan.g) #649

We might be staring at a mediocre wave ((3)) of the subwave (iii). If nifty corrects another 1-2%, itā€™ll confirms that the wave ((3)) is done and wave ((5)) will be start, Which is the last impulsive wave of all the sub waves and the current Elliott wave cycle which started at 2009 is ending too.

If thereā€™s no more correction left, then this might be a temporary blip, and the wave ((3)) will resume itā€™s run.

PS: Iā€™ve taken the same wave length of wave ((1)) and applied to wave ((5)) and arrived at 12500 range to be the top of the cycle.


(vb2400) #650

Thanks for sharing detailed analysis. Lets see how ccl pans out. Have been following the stock movement for quite sometime. At a fundamental level too the main trigger for the stock is commencement of the new capacity for freeze drief unit.
Disc: Invested


(phreak) #651

Royal Orchid Hotels - It might be time to catch this falling knife around 130-140 levels. It has been sliding nicely on the sliding support line. It could take support on the earlier breakout resistance line and consolidate. Hotels were the talk of the town sometime back and now that distribution is more or less done, no one is talking about it. Margin expansion should continue as the occupancy rates rise.

Saregama - Another falling knife which could be revisiting long-term support over the next few weeks. I like this business and am excited to see how Carvaan pans out and if they expand it into a bigger product line and also for yoodlee films which seems to be doing alright.

NGL Finechem - Big runup post results and broke the resistance trendline few weeks back and was consolidating. Big breakout today ending at all time high - Most likely some big fish.

Hikal weekly - Very long consolidation followed by a big breakout with en entry by a big fish. If it closes above the trendline for the week, follow-up buying could come.

Kokuyo Camlin - The resistance I was talking about in an earlier post, along with the oversold position with bearish crossover in MACD - All working in concert.

Advanced Enzymes - Closed above that pesky resistance trendline for the first time in months. Bottom around 200-210 seems to be firmly in place.

Thyrocare update - Retested the resistance today. What was concerning was the way it fell from 690 to 640 - Wondering if it was withdrawal of support from the buyback which caused this. Either way, didnā€™t feel very encouraging so have closed the trading position in the pullback.

Disc: Closed Kokuyo Camlin position recently, might buyback around 20/50 dma. Advanced Enzymes, NGL Finechem have been in the portfolio and have been actively adding last few weeks. Added Hikal today. Royal Orchid - looking to buy around support zones and Saregama looking to add as I already hold a position from 800 odd levels.


#652

following my exit in page industry that was a climactic volume on 30th augustā€¦
https://www.tradingview.com/x/ezaLM8F8/
technically, page has almost reached its multi year peak, the volumes encountered on that day was highest in 10years, the last of such volume seen in the weekly chart was back in 2008ā€¦
its time for compounding the windfall gains the excellent company has made for usā€¦

suven has again stated reaccumualtion, and i expect this one to be a long one, as the point and figure chart point to a rotation point of 460-500 on a conservative basis, another base formation is required, if the scrip has to top out there on the demand countā€¦
i am reaccumulating the range in suvenā€¦

persistent has been a massive shakeoutā€¦ the basic structure still remains positiveā€¦

ador fontech doing back up, excellent point of entry imo, i am increasing positions and averaging upā€¦

mayur uniquoters and bajaj corp, looks excellent on the last point of supportā€¦! will update the charts after a while, when things become more clearā€¦

sbi feels like reaccumulation, the climactic stop at the recent top, was not power ful enough and it didnt feel like distribution anywaysā€¦ so i have maintained positions, even thinking of adding in dips, if i see more supply being absorbedā€¦

acrysil might be going in for an ascending triangleā€¦ and a mini shakeout absorptionā€¦ anyway, the major supply is almost goneā€¦ changed plan and went a bit overweight in position in this scripā€¦

cont postā€¦ HIKAL
Bull therapy 101-thread for technical analysis with the fundamentals

had been tracking the operator accumulation hikal for so long, finally kacholia cleared the doubtā€¦ https://www.tradingview.com/x/Fn3MkGFT/ :rofl:

the wyckoff reacc position in syngene looks awesum, leaving the last point of supportā€¦ https://www.tradingview.com/x/2xV6dlzF/


#653

advanced enzyme is definitely a game of accumualtion that is being played, but i am losing the sense that the absorption is happeningā€¦!
or maybe , ther is not much left tobe absorbed, but these scrips are notorious, when after progressing into the trading range the operators stops absorbingā€¦
there was rampant bull trapping and retail fooling in early this year, but all that play is gone nowā€¦!
i wonder whyā€¦
scrips like this, can remain rangebound for long , to me it looks like getting right in the position before momentum burst would be importantā€¦rather than buying low and waitingā€¦

but any ways, the huge volume show up, looks interestingā€¦


a 218 retest now, make more sense than showing SOS, in which case, i would ve very skeptical
disclaimerā€¦ no positions


#654

HDFC bankā€¦

i hesitate to mention bearish views on major stocks which i think most have exposures to , in case i am wrong, and accidentally some one listens to me and actsā€¦

but this one i think everyone should take note and proceed with caution, not a selling recommendation!!
i personally made my exit a while back, while discussing the scrip with a fellow member , i though it would be important to make this postā€¦

massive downside incoming in hdfc bank, slowly and steadily with time, distribution has started, with so many big players in this, it will take a lot of time to distribute adequately, and bull trapā€¦

disclaimerā€¦ no current position


(manivannan.g) #655


Source: https://twitter.com/amitgupta0310/status/1037345870189015040


(Krishnakumar M) #656

Can you pls share how to apply this for range bound stock like ambika cotton and how does it look like on charts as neither uptrend nor downtrend is visible.


#657

what if this is not a bear market yetā€¦ :rofl:
accoeding to the counts i am following, wave 1 is just done, and that curve might gonna go in to the bull territory in wave 3 and wave 5ā€¦

interesting chart, thanks for sharing mani


#658

continuation postā€¦ aurobindo pharmaā€¦

breaks the trendline, with new acquisition plansā€¦

the story keeps getting betterā€¦

disclaimerā€¦not positions yetā€¦ will need test of trendline/ any other support to confirm the last point of support, to take positionsā€¦


#659

natco pharmaā€¦

facing lot of dumping from some suppliesā€¦!
repeated climaxes at resistanceā€¦

the case for distribution continuesā€¦[cannot find the chart posted in the thread]

disclaimerā€¦ no positions


#660

the biggest move of 2018 is comingā€¦

both the indexes have lined up now, in this rally, what dosent move is better left alone, as the bullish window will be severely compromised after this moveā€¦

wave 3 generally has the best market breadthā€¦
completed wave 1 , with a very narrow marketā€¦

primary concerns, are usdinr and crude hinting at a inflationary oncoming times and further rate hikesā€¦
technically, usdinr, has been primed to soften for longā€¦ indicators atleast suggest so now more so than ever, maybe this would be the primary triggerā€¦

goodluck everyone!


(manivannan.g) #661

In fact, the last impulsive of this cycle.


(manivannan.g) #662

So far things are just going as expected. If nifty follows this, 12600 would be my top. Would post an update, if thereā€™s a change are recount required.


#663

then is it going to be like, nifty cracking down, and midcaps doing wave 5?? lol, that will be a sight to seeā€¦! fomo101 in midcapsā€¦


(sowrabh) #664

Where do u see nifty going in this leg of upmove ??


(manivannan.g) #665

This was my previous chart from here:

So, adding Midcap in the same chart as a comparison to stand where it is in Elliott Wave:

  • Wave (iv) in midcap was extended due to various factors like SEBI Mutual funds reclassification and sell off
  • In Nifty (green line), Wave (v) is already above wave (iii), where as In Midcap, the wave (v) is yet to cross the wave (iii), hence technically thereā€™s more fuel left. But if Nifty touches the (5) and starts the corrective waves, Midcap will short itā€™s wave (5) and starts falling along the Nifty.

Technically, both Midcap & Nifty are in wave 5, the last impulsive of this cycle.


(manivannan.g) #666

Avanti feeds:

  • good export number when the USD is stronger.
  • good monsoon will result in good soya production, which will reduce the raw material cost.
  • finding bottom near 400, looks good in technical, interesting to see how it behaves.