Bull therapy 101-thread for technical analysis with the fundamentals

Ccl products seems to have bottomed out. Rsi and macd are showing positive undertone. Would love to hear your views on Wyckoff reaccumulation.

excellent mention…

reaccumulation is going on…

this is a scrip where the big players are playing with the retail…
https://www.tradingview.com/x/kzK0gyXu/

noted the climactic stopping action at the resistances, this is a different stopping action , there were being preceded by high volume, buying at the support also… so basically, what i think is going on, the operators are buying low and selling partially high, and the sell is triggering shakeouts from the retail and more absorption and they are buying again at a lower support…

typical bag holding action as wyckoff said, which is one of my fav quotes…
its like the big money is keeping a bag open and letting the world sell in to it, without triggering an uptrend…

looking at the levels, the 100week wilder moving average has not been positively tested yet, while 200 week simple moving average has been, so might be further downside and retesting the supply levels…
lets wait for the change of character to start and this down trend channel to be broken out, that will indicate absorption is complete… there after enters on minor last point of support formation shakeouts would be ideal…
overall a positive structure, waiting for the downtrend to exhaust and change of behavior showing rallies on demand would be very important to validate this theory, where letting the price fly up to see demand take control is more important than buying low …

241 might be tested…

disclaimer… not positions, not tracking

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We might be staring at a mediocre wave ((3)) of the subwave (iii). If nifty corrects another 1-2%, it’ll confirms that the wave ((3)) is done and wave ((5)) will be start, Which is the last impulsive wave of all the sub waves and the current Elliott wave cycle which started at 2009 is ending too.

If there’s no more correction left, then this might be a temporary blip, and the wave ((3)) will resume it’s run.

PS: I’ve taken the same wave length of wave ((1)) and applied to wave ((5)) and arrived at 12500 range to be the top of the cycle.

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Thanks for sharing detailed analysis. Lets see how ccl pans out. Have been following the stock movement for quite sometime. At a fundamental level too the main trigger for the stock is commencement of the new capacity for freeze drief unit.
Disc: Invested

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Royal Orchid Hotels - It might be time to catch this falling knife around 130-140 levels. It has been sliding nicely on the sliding support line. It could take support on the earlier breakout resistance line and consolidate. Hotels were the talk of the town sometime back and now that distribution is more or less done, no one is talking about it. Margin expansion should continue as the occupancy rates rise.

Saregama - Another falling knife which could be revisiting long-term support over the next few weeks. I like this business and am excited to see how Carvaan pans out and if they expand it into a bigger product line and also for yoodlee films which seems to be doing alright.

NGL Finechem - Big runup post results and broke the resistance trendline few weeks back and was consolidating. Big breakout today ending at all time high - Most likely some big fish.

Hikal weekly - Very long consolidation followed by a big breakout with en entry by a big fish. If it closes above the trendline for the week, follow-up buying could come.

Kokuyo Camlin - The resistance I was talking about in an earlier post, along with the oversold position with bearish crossover in MACD - All working in concert.

Advanced Enzymes - Closed above that pesky resistance trendline for the first time in months. Bottom around 200-210 seems to be firmly in place.

Thyrocare update - Retested the resistance today. What was concerning was the way it fell from 690 to 640 - Wondering if it was withdrawal of support from the buyback which caused this. Either way, didn’t feel very encouraging so have closed the trading position in the pullback.

Disc: Closed Kokuyo Camlin position recently, might buyback around 20/50 dma. Advanced Enzymes, NGL Finechem have been in the portfolio and have been actively adding last few weeks. Added Hikal today. Royal Orchid - looking to buy around support zones and Saregama looking to add as I already hold a position from 800 odd levels.

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following my exit in page industry that was a climactic volume on 30th august…

technically, page has almost reached its multi year peak, the volumes encountered on that day was highest in 10years, the last of such volume seen in the weekly chart was back in 2008…
its time for compounding the windfall gains the excellent company has made for us…

suven has again stated reaccumualtion, and i expect this one to be a long one, as the point and figure chart point to a rotation point of 460-500 on a conservative basis, another base formation is required, if the scrip has to top out there on the demand count…
i am reaccumulating the range in suven…

persistent has been a massive shakeout… the basic structure still remains positive…

ador fontech doing back up, excellent point of entry imo, i am increasing positions and averaging up…

mayur uniquoters and bajaj corp, looks excellent on the last point of support…! will update the charts after a while, when things become more clear…

sbi feels like reaccumulation, the climactic stop at the recent top, was not power ful enough and it didnt feel like distribution anyways… so i have maintained positions, even thinking of adding in dips, if i see more supply being absorbed…

acrysil might be going in for an ascending triangle… and a mini shakeout absorption… anyway, the major supply is almost gone… changed plan and went a bit overweight in position in this scrip…

cont post… HIKAL
Bull therapy 101-thread for technical analysis with the fundamentals - #378 by Capsule91

had been tracking the operator accumulation hikal for so long, finally kacholia cleared the doubt… Chart Image — TradingView :rofl:

the wyckoff reacc position in syngene looks awesum, leaving the last point of support… Chart Image — TradingView

advanced enzyme is definitely a game of accumualtion that is being played, but i am losing the sense that the absorption is happening…!
or maybe , ther is not much left tobe absorbed, but these scrips are notorious, when after progressing into the trading range the operators stops absorbing…
there was rampant bull trapping and retail fooling in early this year, but all that play is gone now…!
i wonder why…
scrips like this, can remain rangebound for long , to me it looks like getting right in the position before momentum burst would be important…rather than buying low and waiting…

but any ways, the huge volume show up, looks interesting…


a 218 retest now, make more sense than showing SOS, in which case, i would ve very skeptical
disclaimer… no positions

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HDFC bank…

i hesitate to mention bearish views on major stocks which i think most have exposures to , in case i am wrong, and accidentally some one listens to me and acts…

but this one i think everyone should take note and proceed with caution, not a selling recommendation!!
i personally made my exit a while back, while discussing the scrip with a fellow member , i though it would be important to make this post…

massive downside incoming in hdfc bank, slowly and steadily with time, distribution has started, with so many big players in this, it will take a lot of time to distribute adequately, and bull trap…

disclaimer… no current position

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Source: https://twitter.com/amitgupta0310/status/1037345870189015040

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Can you pls share how to apply this for range bound stock like ambika cotton and how does it look like on charts as neither uptrend nor downtrend is visible.

what if this is not a bear market yet… :rofl:
accoeding to the counts i am following, wave 1 is just done, and that curve might gonna go in to the bull territory in wave 3 and wave 5…

interesting chart, thanks for sharing mani

continuation post… aurobindo pharma…

breaks the trendline, with new acquisition plans…

the story keeps getting better…

disclaimer…not positions yet… will need test of trendline/ any other support to confirm the last point of support, to take positions…

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natco pharma…

facing lot of dumping from some supplies…!
repeated climaxes at resistance…

the case for distribution continues…[cannot find the chart posted in the thread]

disclaimer… no positions

the biggest move of 2018 is coming…

both the indexes have lined up now, in this rally, what dosent move is better left alone, as the bullish window will be severely compromised after this move…

wave 3 generally has the best market breadth…
completed wave 1 , with a very narrow market…

primary concerns, are usdinr and crude hinting at a inflationary oncoming times and further rate hikes…
technically, usdinr, has been primed to soften for long… indicators atleast suggest so now more so than ever, maybe this would be the primary trigger…

goodluck everyone!

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In fact, the last impulsive of this cycle.

So far things are just going as expected. If nifty follows this, 12600 would be my top. Would post an update, if there’s a change are recount required.

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then is it going to be like, nifty cracking down, and midcaps doing wave 5?? lol, that will be a sight to see…! fomo101 in midcaps…

Where do u see nifty going in this leg of upmove ??

This was my previous chart from here:

So, adding Midcap in the same chart as a comparison to stand where it is in Elliott Wave:

  • Wave (iv) in midcap was extended due to various factors like SEBI Mutual funds reclassification and sell off
  • In Nifty (green line), Wave (v) is already above wave (iii), where as In Midcap, the wave (v) is yet to cross the wave (iii), hence technically there’s more fuel left. But if Nifty touches the (5) and starts the corrective waves, Midcap will short it’s wave (5) and starts falling along the Nifty.

Technically, both Midcap & Nifty are in wave 5, the last impulsive of this cycle.

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Avanti feeds:

  • good export number when the USD is stronger.
  • good monsoon will result in good soya production, which will reduce the raw material cost.
  • finding bottom near 400, looks good in technical, interesting to see how it behaves.

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