this is exactly the reason i sort of dont like elliot wave as a system as a personal preference[yet regarding it as one of the best predictive models ever discovered]…
it disconnects one form the market and we start being too much about the waves and fractals and ratios etc and the mind boggling amount of rules to follow…its better worth spending time tracking the demand supply scenario , any way…
i again disagree with this count…[both in the 2009 time picture, and also in the 2018 correction time]
to me, we just started the subwave 1 of wave 5, june end, about the time midcaps also joined the que after finishing correction[dow theory mentions all indices move in tandem as a sentinel rule]
i dont know, y every time i see a wave 4 it turns out to be a triangle and a reaccumulation [ps- i rarely find wave 4s to be a straight down and over kind of waves, these are reaccumulations most commonly, and this was one in nifty and sensex i remember… just like 2009 to 2013 wave 4 and wyckoff reacc i was referring to ]
i do not see the recent post april wave 1[wave1 for as the blog mentions, wave b as i mention in the above chart] as a impulsive structure to call it a part of ongoing wave 5…
also, looking at the market, the[1-2-3-4-5] 5 wave structure which i have drawn, which i believe are the sub waves of the wave 1 of wave 5, has a ridiculous narrow market breadth… typical of wave 1 … and not wave 3 which the blog mentions…in wave 3, the breadth widens …
i have investments in IDA, and i believe it has a lot of fuel left above the previous high…
dont have a chart atm, but there was multiple re accumulations along the way…
for now, sharing a private chart idea, the action crossed the target level , didnt show buying climax yet, strongly in momentum, but should correct soon… might be considering addition positions there
@Capsule91 I am sorry, but I couldn’t understand how you concluded that its BOTS who resulted in that action around 20–23 Aug. Could you please provide some more details.
Another question I have is if bots are programmed to start selling at some resistance point (even a human trader may try same) , they can easily be countered if absorption is significant. Isnt it ? Then why are these bots different from humans.
Thanks for your help in learning tricks of this new way of trading in the modern world.
well, good question…
its just about some patterns that i encountered that day, which literally freaked me out…
millions of buy and sell orders were coming in both side of the order book, of exactly 0.002btc size during that time…
i am not sure if a trader would do that…
i mean these are after all human programmed algos that are used, with complete dilution of herd participation …
i remember i had a funny chart drawn on when i concluded that this is going on …
When u say things would b ugly till what levels can we fall after wave 5? Tht means correction would set in somewhere around 2nd half of 2019 right? Thanks
okayy, so i have a contra view, there was a distribution at the top in 2016, and then a selling climax when the action became grosly over sold, and the recent price action, raises a lot of alarm… i think this is redistribution going on, and a bull trap…
anyways, i think its very important time to exercise caution with stocks related to core auto sector, as they tend to generate too much beta if a market correction is being anticipated next year…
The first retracement level is would be 23.6% and then it goes on in fib series: 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% etc.,
So if i take 12700 is the top of wave 5, this will be the retracements:
23.6% : 9702 (likely)
38.2% : 7808 (unlikely)
50% : 6350 (v.unlikely)
61.8%: 4851 (v.v.unlikely)
By taking the current situation, I’ve added likeliness of the retracements. If BJP loses, then 38.2% is possible. This is purely based on my assessment by considering the political & macro situation we are at. Pls take it with pinch of salt. The other two retracements are known to occur during the black swan events like the 2008 financial crisis which is very very unlikely.
the question is, if dow jones, nasdaq , russel 2000 are all set to crash by 40-50% what will our index do… nifty was having a higher beta during the 2009 time…do not think , who ever wins the election will have virtually any effect on the market…
anyways, looking technically, i think 9k will be the base for nifty 50 on any correction from the top
horrible numbers in the financials in last few quarters
went into losses form 2016, whent he stock turned, to be a underperformer, and started reaccumualtion and wave 4 of elliot waves…
anyone aware of any better changing fundamentals, on which a bullish campaign can be launched?
Mindtree weekly - If current week closes above last week’s close and stays above that support line, it could result in a breakout. Recent quarter performance was good as well with revenues up 27% and profits up 30% YoY with margin expansion. Rupee depreciation augurs well as well. Not cheap but if next quarter growth justifies, the breakout if any will sustain. Liked the strength it showed today amid turbulence in midcaps.
Sasken - 900 seems to have held well and interestingly 20/50/100 DMA are all in very close range around 950 and this consolidation has gone on for a while. Downside is perhaps limited. Revenues and profits have grown around 14% and 60% respectively in the recent quarter. Valuation looks very reasonable at 17 P/E at a mcap of 1600 Cr - with cash and investments of 500 Cr. Pays dividend and has a history of buybacks.
It can’t be distribution because the shareholding pattern shows retail holding under 2 lakhs share capital has moved like this during the last 4 years.
That can’t be a coincidence. I see that acrysil has been discussed in this thread earlier as well and I concur with @Capsule91’s views on accumulation.
Disc: Sold 75% of my Ujjivan long-term holdings recently and added Sasken, Mindtree and Acrysil as techno-funda picks. Had added more Thyrocare to my long-term position post buyback announcement as a trading bet.
it gives a lot of comfort seeing u take interest in acrysil and mindtree…
i am looking for entry in mindtree
last point of support done, now doing a back up action
is it possible for u to attend the agm for acrysil?..
and how do u look at the previously ex-sink business margins which used to be better got declined in this quarter while the quartz business did tremendous i terms of sales and margins both…??
and a reaccumulation [ps- i rarely find wave 4s to be a straight down and over kind of waves, these are reaccumulations most commonly, and this was one in nifty and sensex i remember… just like 2009 to 2013 wave 4 and wyckoff reacc i was referring to ]
…
