Bull therapy 101-thread for technical analysis with the fundamentals


#626

this is exactly the reason i sort of dont like elliot wave as a system as a personal preference[yet regarding it as one of the best predictive models ever discovered]…

it disconnects one form the market and we start being too much about the waves and fractals and ratios etc and the mind boggling amount of rules to follow…its better worth spending time tracking the demand supply scenario , any way…

i again disagree with this count…[both in the 2009 time picture, and also in the 2018 correction time]
to me, we just started the subwave 1 of wave 5, june end, about the time midcaps also joined the que after finishing correction[dow theory mentions all indices move in tandem as a sentinel rule]

i dont know, y every time i see a wave 4 it turns out to be a triangle :rofl: and a reaccumulation [ps- i rarely find wave 4s to be a straight down and over kind of waves, these are reaccumulations most commonly, and this was one in nifty and sensex i remember… just like 2009 to 2013 wave 4 and wyckoff reacc i was referring to ]

i do not see the recent post april wave 1[wave1 for as the blog mentions, wave b as i mention in the above chart] as a impulsive structure to call it a part of ongoing wave 5…
also, looking at the market, the[1-2-3-4-5] 5 wave structure which i have drawn, which i believe are the sub waves of the wave 1 of wave 5, has a ridiculous narrow market breadth… typical of wave 1 … and not wave 3 which the blog mentions…in wave 3, the breadth widens …


#627

i have investments in IDA, and i believe it has a lot of fuel left above the previous high…

dont have a chart atm, but there was multiple re accumulations along the way…
for now, sharing a private chart idea, the action crossed the target level , didnt show buying climax yet, strongly in momentum, but should correct soon… might be considering addition positions there


(Sarabjeet Singh) #629

@Capsule91 I am sorry, but I couldn’t understand how you concluded that its BOTS who resulted in that action around 20–23 Aug. Could you please provide some more details.

Another question I have is if bots are programmed to start selling at some resistance point (even a human trader may try same) , they can easily be countered if absorption is significant. Isnt it ? Then why are these bots different from humans.

Thanks for your help in learning tricks of this new way of trading in the modern world.


#630

well, good question…
its just about some patterns that i encountered that day, which literally freaked me out…
millions of buy and sell orders were coming in both side of the order book, of exactly 0.002btc size during that time…
i am not sure if a trader would do that…

i mean these are after all human programmed algos that are used, with complete dilution of herd participation …

i remember i had a funny chart drawn on when i concluded that this is going on :laughing:


and this followed
https://www.tradingview.com/x/kBAXt8cl/
which u can see in the form of a high volume drop in the daily chart in the above posted idea…


(manivannan.g) #631

Manappuram is in early corrective wave. Kerala floods effective may ensure this.


(paresh.sarjani1) #632

I observed same pattern in Deep Industries since last 20 days… Any comments?


(Anuj Maheshwari) #633

When u say things would b ugly till what levels can we fall after wave 5? Tht means correction would set in somewhere around 2nd half of 2019 right? Thanks


(sriG) #634

@Capsule91:Hi,can you study the chart of SKM egg products…a very peculiar stock…and post ur comments


(Ankush Agrawal) #635

Amara Raja Batteries is ripe for a breakout from double-bottom with handle on a monthly chart.
A breakout from 908.45 is a good buy.


(Ankush Agrawal) #636

Weekly


#637

okayy, so i have a contra view, there was a distribution at the top in 2016, and then a selling climax when the action became grosly over sold, and the recent price action, raises a lot of alarm… i think this is redistribution going on, and a bull trap…
anyways, i think its very important time to exercise caution with stocks related to core auto sector, as they tend to generate too much beta if a market correction is being anticipated next year…

disclaimer… tracking, not invested


(Ankush Agrawal) #638

Maybe. But one would buy on a breakout. And it is a low risk setup so should be worth a try.
Let us see what happens when it breaks out


#639

i think deep ind, is facing a lot of supply, most of which is unmasked till now, and some major supplier has entered the market…

disclaimer… no positions


#640

can u please elaborate…

technically, it is getting repeatedly distributed since 2015…

should test 50 m the region where previous buying started in jan 2017…

disclaimer… not invested


(manivannan.g) #641

The first retracement level is would be 23.6% and then it goes on in fib series: 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% etc.,

So if i take 12700 is the top of wave 5, this will be the retracements:
23.6% : 9702 (likely)
38.2% : 7808 (unlikely)
50% : 6350 (v.unlikely)
61.8%: 4851 (v.v.unlikely)

By taking the current situation, I’ve added likeliness of the retracements. If BJP loses, then 38.2% is possible. This is purely based on my assessment by considering the political & macro situation we are at. Pls take it with pinch of salt. The other two retracements are known to occur during the black swan events like the 2008 financial crisis which is very very unlikely.


#642

the question is, if dow jones, nasdaq , russel 2000 are all set to crash by 40-50% what will our index do… nifty was having a higher beta during the 2009 time…do not think , who ever wins the election will have virtually any effect on the market…

anyways, looking technically, i think 9k will be the base for nifty 50 on any correction from the top


(manivannan.g) #643

Agree… if the US indices crashes, the turmoil would be rubbed on our indices too…


#644

bombay burmah…
does anyone like this chart ??
i think this is doing back up after accumulation , and has a final wave up left…

https://www.tradingview.com/x/SOZC5Cwe/

horrible numbers in the financials in last few quarters
went into losses form 2016, whent he stock turned, to be a underperformer, and started reaccumualtion and wave 4 of elliot waves…

anyone aware of any better changing fundamentals, on which a bullish campaign can be launched?

disclaimer… not invested


(phreak) #645

Mindtree weekly - If current week closes above last week’s close and stays above that support line, it could result in a breakout. Recent quarter performance was good as well with revenues up 27% and profits up 30% YoY with margin expansion. Rupee depreciation augurs well as well. Not cheap but if next quarter growth justifies, the breakout if any will sustain. Liked the strength it showed today amid turbulence in midcaps.

Ujjivan weekly - Looks to be breaking down.

Sasken - 900 seems to have held well and interestingly 20/50/100 DMA are all in very close range around 950 and this consolidation has gone on for a while. Downside is perhaps limited. Revenues and profits have grown around 14% and 60% respectively in the recent quarter. Valuation looks very reasonable at 17 P/E at a mcap of 1600 Cr - with cash and investments of 500 Cr. Pays dividend and has a history of buybacks.

Thyrocare update - The buyback is lending support to the prices as I expected as it sails above 200 dma and stays there.

Acrysil - Like the chart since this consolidation has been going on for 4 years.

It can’t be distribution because the shareholding pattern shows retail holding under 2 lakhs share capital has moved like this during the last 4 years.

1331813 -> 1281280 -> 1321947 -> 1320177 -> 1320564 -> 1303329 -> 1277804 -> 1244146 -> 1200636 -> 1205372 -> 1156659

while the big fish holding has moved like this

535242 -> 566178 -> 535242 -> 535771 -> 542463 -> 763703 -> 763703 -> 711906 -> 704524 -> 752430 -> 874354

That can’t be a coincidence. I see that acrysil has been discussed in this thread earlier as well and I concur with @Capsule91’s views on accumulation.

Disc: Sold 75% of my Ujjivan long-term holdings recently and added Sasken, Mindtree and Acrysil as techno-funda picks. Had added more Thyrocare to my long-term position post buyback announcement as a trading bet.


#646

it gives a lot of comfort seeing u take interest in acrysil and mindtree…

i am looking for entry in mindtree

last point of support done, now doing a back up action

is it possible for u to attend the agm for acrysil?..
and how do u look at the previously ex-sink business margins which used to be better got declined in this quarter while the quartz business did tremendous i terms of sales and margins both…??