Bull therapy 101-thread for technical analysis with the fundamentals


(Gorthi) #606

I happened to listen Rakesh Junjunwala’s interview some time back it was some where in
Mid of 2017… One of the discussion point is is this end of the Bull market… He says Bull Market end when 1. Extremly frothy valuations 2. Commitment i.e highly leveraged positions 3. Coupled with Bad News…

I could’t see anything is there as of now…
Due to recent corrections Valuations corrected bit, jf you read mutual fund managers there is lots of money flowing in , and bad news can’t see and cant predict also…

One potentional issue could trigger panic… is not getting clear majority by the BJP…

Why do you feel is Nifty topping at 126000…

Also everyone knows that Nifty is not representing the correct picture…Due to only few companies is leading it. Also we.are the beginning of the earning cycles…


#607

@manivannan.g
I will differe with your count here , the post 2009 bull.run to 2010 oct, is not a impulsive structure… its a corrective pattern rather…

The whole 2008 to 2013 was a wave 4 of the nifty50s cycle in the form of an ascending triangle in elliot wave theory(asc tris are a very common occurance in wave4s right), and a wyckoff accumulation in wyckoff methods i am learning…
2013 we entered into the phase e markup of wyckoff schematics and wave 5 of elliot waves…


Essentially wave 1 has started post 2013, and we are in sub wave 5 of wave 3 here now, and the final wave 5 is yet to.come after a corrective wave 4…

Lol, i just confused myself with what i wrote…
Here is the chart…

Indian markets have a long way to go to 2025 around , and quite interestingly while.
Djia and nasdaq both are completing their grand cycle, nifty will have enough fuel.for another big run…
I see huge fii money pouring in the emerging markets in coming years…
While the correction oncoming can be as deep as 50percent from the top in nifty, (i think a 38.2% drop makes more sense as a wave 4 wyckoff reacc), i am very excited about nifty’s wave 5 which could hyperextend, as i had been discussing with u the other day…

Well, all this is just textbook technical analysis, essentially in theory…
But i am planning my equity investment accordingly…

Let me know what u think of this alternative view of mine as a contrary…

Whats exciting is the midcap chart bullish projections in the said wave 5,i will rather not post it, as it will look obnoxiusly delerious of what i have in mind :joy:


(manivannan.g) #608

Well, it’s a clear implusive wave for me, by following EW’s guidance. Pls refer the chart below.

You are calling 2008’s top is 3 and then till 2013, it’s wave 4, which is wrong IMHO.

Because, as per Elliott principle, a typical wave 4 won’t retrace more than 38.2%, but here from the 2008 top it retraced more than 60% which is clear corrective wave. Asc.triangle are common, but you need to see how much their retracements are, this is not a wave 4 character in terms of retracement. Hence can’t be wave 4.


(manivannan.g) #609

The answer lying in your statement itself :slight_smile: let me flip them:

Why do you feel is Nifty topping at 126000…

One potentional issue could trigger panic… is not getting clear majority by the BJP…

Not only Elliott wave, technical analysis is something trying to forecast the future by assessing the current & past nature of the movement of script/index (can be termed as assessing the crowd psychology as well). So with given nature of the movement, the “expected” top to be around 12600-12700. But if the wave 5 extends it would reach around 13200 (BJP getting a super majority may help this, which unlikely), that is when the valuations will become frothy. If the run stretches even further and goes beyond wave 3’s length, that’s when we need to consider the count.

Whatever goes up has to fall down at a time, it never go always up. What i observed so far is, Elliott Wave is something reliable, works majority of the time. But as usual, there are exceptions, that’s when we need for a recall.

Each wave’s character & respective crowd psychology in each wave:


#610

The only rule of wave 4 i know of is it cannot enter wave 1 territory unless its a diagonal…
In this case , it didnt enter the high of wave 1 whih was cy 2000 top…
Looks valid to me.

I am very interested to see the 5subwave internal structure of the wave u are counting as wave1…


(Niranjan Shetty) #611

@Capsule91 - you have piqued my curiosity :blush: Could you post the charts please? Cheers!


(vignesh) #612

Hi Experts,
Can you please provide some tech inputs on Sintex Industries and Sintex Plastics ?


(Gorthi) #613

Indeed its very interesting…I will try to reserach more on this.

My next question is what would be Impact and how far its streatched… I know no one can predict but based on the history what it looks like???

Also, When i thought about the what would be the my responsive to this event of the fall… I thought sell 60 to 80% sit on cash… Its purely my life situations b’coz i just started and cant afford to loose
…Now How do you identify when this fall specifically…what i was thinking say 15% falls in Portfolia is clear evident for me. … B coz i believe i have top quality companies of around 10 to 12at various sectors…15% overall down is nothing but trend shift…

Its purely my perspective …Iam new and my aim not earn multi multi baggers…but stay alive and learn lessons for 5 to 8 before invest foreever like great investors…

Can you please lets us know your thoughts…
Forgive me if it sounds silly😊


(manivannan.g) #614

No, it has to respect the retracement depth too. I never saw a wave 4 retracing 60%, only corrective wave does so. Also if you still don’t believe, check for some nifty elliott wave count around web and see what is suiting.

Some folks are calling 2009-present as wave 1, some are calling as wave 3.


#615

I would rather want to see what comes out of the discussion with u…
Everyone has a different count…

I was considering the wave u mention as wave 1 once, but i was having trouble defining it as a impulse wave as i cannot find a 5wave structure in it…

Please help me find that 5 wave structure in that 2009 to 2010-2011 run…


(manivannan.g) #616

Purple text reflects the subwave you asked for, where as the Blue text is the actual count which I’m sticking with.


#617

ok… got the idea u are referring to… thanks…!

so basically u are considering wave 4 to be the 2008 crash…

but i am again confused when i refer to this…

ur wave 4 retraces to more than 60%, but a typical wave 4 dosent retrace more than 38.2% ??


(manivannan.g) #618

No, pls refer the chart, the top of 2008 is wave 5 ending. Not only me, lot of folks consider that as wave 5 top, followed by a year long correction ABC. I didn’t consider that as wave 4, even in my charge i called that as wave 5 only.


(vikram) #619

How is Majeso doing technically?


#620

oops sorry, i miss read it a bit…

i get what u are saying…

but somewhere down the line, i cannot satisfy myself calling that 2009-2011 rally as an impulse…! thats where all my counts changes,and i think this is not it for the indian markets yet…

this is the way i am looking at that triangle area in the midcaps and the nifty, and clear impulses started forming after the post triangle thrust formed…



anyway… let the differences be…
will track it…


#621

majesco looks bearish to me…
wyckoff distribution is what i suspect is going on…
currently in phase d before mark down begins enjoying the last point of supply from the smart money…

the gradual tapering of the heikenashi, with rise in volume of the last candle with very small spread, seems like, supply is coming to knock on the door and about to take the cockpit from the demand’s control…

disclaimer, no positions, correlate fundamentally


#622

Adding to the discussion on the Elliot wave counts in our index…

went through the net what other guys are thinking about the index, and i bumped into this…
and i agree with this count…



in my counts i am showing the bigger picture and ignoring the present very short term picture, to those who are not familiar with elliot wave 5 waves upward completion is going to complete the bull run… in the last chart from Bloomberg-edelweiss, they have mentioned upto III …[well, lol, conveniently they didnt show what is coming after wave 3, which is in my chart , the bearish wave 4 and a final wave 5 to conclude the rally ]

completely disagree 12225 being a level to top out, the basic point and figure chart gives me a target of 12500 plus and as @manivannan.g mentions, 12600 also is a level to be cautious about but, i think 13k would be the unlucky touch and drop number finally…:rofl:


#623

@zoro99 , i remembered u asked me the effects of trading bots have on confounding the results of technical analysis, and i tried to give an explanation using the bitcoin market…
here is a perfect example to demonstrate that…

while analyzing using wyckoff methods, we try to understand the demand and supply scene with prime importance of solely tracking where the big money is going in and out and their activities and motives behind it…

in this case, while i was analyzing the chart , it looked to me the operators here was absorbing the coins from the retail and drying the supply gradually… and it looked like a straight away to markup as there was hardly any supply coming in…

somewhere in the world, some mischievous trading bot, tried to spoil the game, right after the live chart starts , around 22nd and 23rd august, u can see there was a really massive volume drop, volumes of supply, which were being encountered before the absorption was starting [mentioned in pinks]…

this totally confounds the theory at that point of time and leaves everyone including the operators else where, confused, where the heck did the supply come from, if we have already does absorption…

but look at the whole picture, bots can surely confound a 240mins chart, but the entire base formation and the resultant markup was hardly affected…

disclaimer… just closed trade


(nprao) #624

Hi, have you also looked at its peer Intellect Design Arena? It’s close to all time highs. At a fundamental level deal wins and dollar revenue growth seems quite robust. Thanks.


(manivannan.g) #625

If you are talking about, the supercyle which lasts for a multi-decade, then we are in wave 3 as depicted in the picture. But what I was referring is cycle.

What I was talking was about the current cycle, just like the past cycle which ended in 2008. A cycle lasts for several years, whereas the supercycle lasts for multi-decades. Ref: Elliott wave priniciples & wiki.

When you raised this concern, it was bit confusing for me too… In fact, several people were having different count across the internet. I found this is reliable. And i got the count bit correct.

PS: I didn’t post other bloggers charts, since some are calling we are in wave 1 which is absolutely incorrect and it would be more confusing.


So, if you refer to my chart, the wave 1’s length is around 29% approximately. In most of the cases wave 5 would be almost equal to wave 1 and in some special cases, there might be an extension of the rally, but the farther the rally it extends in wave 5, the depth the fall would be. So that’s the reason I applied the same length to wave 5 and given 12600-12700 would be the top of this cycle.

Now, if the wave 5 extends, one will try to find the top using fibonacci numbers (14.6%, 23.6%,38.2%,61.8%,100% etc.,), so in this case, after the 29% (wave 1’s length), I would expect the next top would be 38.2% and then 61.8%, 100% and goes on. When the wave 5 touches each fib level, my cautious level would be increasing.