I agree with your views. Like I said, I am not very fond of this business.
Re staff: I had in mind the offices abroad. Unless BLS is able to obtain more than one (or two) contracts from the same location, it would not see any growth. To illustrate: If they have an office in say, Spain, then if the company has to grow, it should get the contracts for not only Spain, but say, Portugal, UK, Schengen countries etc. Now I have already admitted my ignorance of their overseas business and you would of course be absolutely right to say that I am arguing with insufficient justification, and I fully accept that. My point was that the amount of bid, and the employment of staff have a direct relationship. If a company bids low, then it cannot pay much to its staff, and consequently, the standard of service will come down, and the company may lose contract or be penalized (depending on the conditions of the contract). After all, if you pay peanuts, then you will be able employ only monkeys! This connection between the bid amount and staff could turn into a vicious circle and bleed the company. On the other hand, if you bid high, then you may not get the contract at all!! Further, maintaining an office overseas is not easy, with the costs associated with rent, utilities etc.
Here I would also like to share a new trend. I do not know how many are aware of this. Certain countries, especially the highly developed ones, are now moving towards total automation of the visa process. To my knowledge, New Zealand has already carried out several trials to implement this. In such a case, the applicant does not even need to send his passport, and the visa is granted online. However, it should be accepted that this is not something that can be implemented in the immediate future, so the impact may be considered negligible.
Many countries, again, especially, the developed ones are now moving towards visa free travel. India, too has visa free travel agreements with several countries. This is a factor that could have an impact. One needs to have an indepth knowledge of the number of outward visitors from any country, and the visa free agreements the country has, with which BLS may have a contract with. After all, if BLS wins the contract for say, Niue, it will not be able to generate much revenues owing to fact that Niue permits visa on arrival or visa free entry to most countries (from where visitors come), and the number of tourists are capped at 400 per year.
Litigation costs should be available in the Annual Reports. In my understanding, the litigation is usually of a short-term, as these cases are connected with grant of contract to one company or the other. The environment is very aggressive, and costs can mount quickly. However, one needs to get the exact facts to support this argument.
I fully agree. It was just my bias coming through!! I stand corrected.
I agree with you. Overall, BLS may be a good company. However, my concern is solely with the business model. In my view, it does not offer the kind of sustainability I look for in stocks. BLS could always improve margins by winning more contracts, but it will need to be constantly monitored. My preferable investment strategy is buy and forget, as I am not in a position to keep watching the market movements daily. Currently BLS is available at a PE of about 11 (Screener), and could be a good bet provided they are able to achieve better sales. Their latest results do not inspire much confidence, I must admit.
To sum up, my view is that BLS needs to monitored constantly, and sufficient knowledge about the various factors which could have an impact is required. It could be a good short-term bet (or not!!) A decision to invest in this stock will depend upon the risk taking ability of the investor. But that is true of any stock!!!
I hope that the above makes sense!!
Regards
Sandeep