BLS International

Q4 results look pretty average after a dismal Q3.

  1. Margins

I feel the biggest culprit being higher COGS. Gross margins hit the lowest in Q3 at 25% leading to a fall in EBITDA margins which came in at 6.5% for the quarter. This was after a decent Q2 where the EBITDA margin was 20%. One needs to understand the cause.

Q4 has shown a slight improvement with Gross margins at 27% and EBIDTA margin at 9.4%. One has to wait for the next quarter results to see whether the uptrend is sustainable. Hopefully the long term EBITDA margins should be c.15%.

  1. Growth

Well, the management said they are yet to recognize UKVI revenues completely. This contract is worth UKP110m (INR880Cr) spread over 3 years. That is INR293cr on an annual basis. So, I feel they can clock c.20% growth in the next fiscal which should lead to topline in the range INR1,100Cr to INR1,200 Cr.

Assuming the NP margin settles at 10%, this will lead to INR120Cr of bottom line.

To my mind, the biggest comfort is in valuation. A high ROCE, cash rich business available at c.8x FY19 EV/EBITDA.

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Concur with both @shreyas1705 & @SiddhantMansukhani . I attended the con-call and heres my take on BLS. Please consider them as my personal views and I could be wrong.

Negatives

  1. Pretty dismal results. Forgettable FY19. but the nature of the business is such that I dont expect linear growth every year. I expect it to be lumpy and to come in spurts as they win New contracts.

  2. Management is flaky and gives sporadic guidance (as mentioned above, on the concall itself one of the mgmt person said 10-15% and the other 15-20% growth expected from existing contracts.). Here too I am willing to give them a benefit of the doubt. I felt its more of a case to please the investors as suppose to hide something. Also I appreciate that they are dealing with Gov and they cannot say anything until its all finalized but at the same time they must be in final stages of finalizing contracts hence the confidence that they can do better growth hence end up giving more optimistic figures (all this is my guess on how mgmt must be thinking).

  3. Lot of Cash on books: This one does bother me and I have probed them on this in every concall. if the the business is truly asset light then theres no reason to hold on to so much cash. It just gives a very shady image to the mgmt imo. Last year I was more worried as they also had debt on books and huge receivables too.

POSITIVES

  1. Debt free. This rests my concerns to a large degree that the mgmt is not Chor(Although they dont appear to be top class either)

  2. Punjab contract hangover is out of the way

  3. Mgmt were slow then what they guided but they did live up to their word of extracting receivables from Punjab gov. Its not complete but happy with the progress as i believe getting money from the gov is not an easy task specially when their contract was terminated halfway.

  4. It seems Mgmt has learnt their lesson not to rely gov to pay up hence all their current and future contracts are designed to collect money upfront from citizens.(heard it on the concall)

  5. Mgmt has been doing something right and thats why have managed to secure work from multiple gov worldwide and not just Indian gov (if that were to be the case then one could think they are getting “special favors”.)

  6. Valuations are decent for such a business where once you win a long term contract its pretty much a monopoly as citizens have no other way to use those respective services.

  7. Will not be holding my breath on this one but mgmt did say they are expecting a huge contract win in Q1 or max Q2 this year.

  8. Globally Nationalistic trends are getting stronger. Could throw in some positive surprises for visa businesses. For example if there were to be hard Brexit even the Europeans could end up requiring UK visas and vice versa. This too is just my hunch.

Disc:Invested

BLS has increased service fee in UAE:

http://www.indembassyuae.gov.in/alert_detail.php?newsid=67

I have not checked if they have done so for other countries too.

Rgds
Sandeep

Disc: Not invested, not interested.

Thanks for the update Sandokan.

Would like to hear your views on why the company doesn’t interest you. There seems to be a lot of skepticism in this counter. Want to make sure whether it is warranted.

@shreyas1705

Firstly I must confess that I have intimate knowledge of the business that BLS is in. My scepticism arises from the business model. I will try to explain what I mean by that.

Now BLS is a service provider. However, they are in a very competitive market and the competition is, to put mildly, cut-throat. Other big players are VFS Global, Cox and Kings, and there are a few other smaller players. These companies bid for offering visa services and their earnings arise from the service charges that they levy. Now these charges are over and above the visa fees charged by various countries. In the Indian context, these charges are the only major earnings that these companies can get. Of course, they can levy other charges like photocopy charges, form filling assistance charges, Internet charges, and even for VIP service charges. But the service charges remain the main earning avenue.

All these firms are bidding for contracts and are always ready to offer ridiculously low prices. The winning bid is, of course, the lowest one. Now, all these firms need to employ staff, have an office with associated equipments etc. These cost money, and the lower their margin, the lower the quality of the staff, and therefore, lower the standard of service. A simple net search of some of the comments on the sites of various Indian embassies abroad, where visa services have been outsourced, will be sufficient.

There is another factor that I am not comfortable with: all these companies are always engaged in litigation against each other, which costs money.

I have earlier posted on this forum the news of Indian govt’s move to grant eVisa for one year. This is applicable for Tourist, Business and Medical visa categories, and more recently, for Conference visa. These categories make the bulk of Indian visa categories, with a consequent loss of revenue to these companies. Of course, bulk of their business (in Rupee terms) comes from other countries’ visas, and I will admit here that my this argument does not offer much substance. But I am restricting my response to the Indian side of the business (particularly as I have not studied their overseas business.) An interesting exercise could be to compare the effect of exchange rates on the total earnings of the company, yearwise.

We must also not forget the fact that these companies are in govt to customer (G2C) business. Govts all over the world are the same: ponderous, slow moving and requiring frequent application of “friction reducing catalyst”.

In my view, BLS is engaged in a sector which offers low margins, high competitiveness, high overheads, and limited growth potential. I tend to stay away from any company which has substantial dealings with govt (similarly I do not invest in PSUs.) I will freely admit that my knowledge of this sector adds to my cynicism, and to my prejudice too. It could be that BLS may offer an opportunity for a short-term, but my strategy is for the long term only. And it would require a much more nimble investor than I to try a play with this stock.

There is a more than even chance that I am wrong. But then, if one was always right, then there would not be any fun in investing!! :slight_smile:

I hope that I have presented my arguments cogently. If not, please forgive me, for sometimes my prejudices rise above the logic.

Best Wishes
Sandeep

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Thanks for your perspective Sandeep.

We can only surmise how BLS won Spain Visa and UKVI contracts over the likes of VFS, Cox and Kings, whether it was just on the bidding price or on other technical grounds or both.

Not sure about your view on margins being squeezed due to high staff cost, which is the largest component in their cost of sales. Also, we have near zero inflation in Europe and 1%-2% in Middle East. These cost should remain in check. Let’s see.

Litigation costs are something I had no idea about, thanks for this. I will read up more.

I agree with your point on G2C business model. I don’t like it either. But, I feel it’s unfair to compare it with a PSU.

Probably a few more contract wins and retention of Spain contract in 2020 should add much needed credibility to the management’s execution capability. I will wait!

I agree with your views. Like I said, I am not very fond of this business.

Re staff: I had in mind the offices abroad. Unless BLS is able to obtain more than one (or two) contracts from the same location, it would not see any growth. To illustrate: If they have an office in say, Spain, then if the company has to grow, it should get the contracts for not only Spain, but say, Portugal, UK, Schengen countries etc. Now I have already admitted my ignorance of their overseas business and you would of course be absolutely right to say that I am arguing with insufficient justification, and I fully accept that. My point was that the amount of bid, and the employment of staff have a direct relationship. If a company bids low, then it cannot pay much to its staff, and consequently, the standard of service will come down, and the company may lose contract or be penalized (depending on the conditions of the contract). After all, if you pay peanuts, then you will be able employ only monkeys! This connection between the bid amount and staff could turn into a vicious circle and bleed the company. On the other hand, if you bid high, then you may not get the contract at all!! Further, maintaining an office overseas is not easy, with the costs associated with rent, utilities etc.

Here I would also like to share a new trend. I do not know how many are aware of this. Certain countries, especially the highly developed ones, are now moving towards total automation of the visa process. To my knowledge, New Zealand has already carried out several trials to implement this. In such a case, the applicant does not even need to send his passport, and the visa is granted online. However, it should be accepted that this is not something that can be implemented in the immediate future, so the impact may be considered negligible.

Many countries, again, especially, the developed ones are now moving towards visa free travel. India, too has visa free travel agreements with several countries. This is a factor that could have an impact. One needs to have an indepth knowledge of the number of outward visitors from any country, and the visa free agreements the country has, with which BLS may have a contract with. After all, if BLS wins the contract for say, Niue, it will not be able to generate much revenues owing to fact that Niue permits visa on arrival or visa free entry to most countries (from where visitors come), and the number of tourists are capped at 400 per year.

Litigation costs should be available in the Annual Reports. In my understanding, the litigation is usually of a short-term, as these cases are connected with grant of contract to one company or the other. The environment is very aggressive, and costs can mount quickly. However, one needs to get the exact facts to support this argument.

I fully agree. It was just my bias coming through!! I stand corrected.

I agree with you. Overall, BLS may be a good company. However, my concern is solely with the business model. In my view, it does not offer the kind of sustainability I look for in stocks. BLS could always improve margins by winning more contracts, but it will need to be constantly monitored. My preferable investment strategy is buy and forget, as I am not in a position to keep watching the market movements daily. Currently BLS is available at a PE of about 11 (Screener), and could be a good bet provided they are able to achieve better sales. Their latest results do not inspire much confidence, I must admit.

To sum up, my view is that BLS needs to monitored constantly, and sufficient knowledge about the various factors which could have an impact is required. It could be a good short-term bet (or not!!) A decision to invest in this stock will depend upon the risk taking ability of the investor. But that is true of any stock!!! :slight_smile:

I hope that the above makes sense!!

Regards
Sandeep

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I don’t track this company but I will add few points I recently observed .
Say like uk and schenzen vfs is sole visa agency in India but any one with little computer knowledge can apply directly and they don’t have to pay anything extra to VFS.
So revenue of BLS also depends on such arrangements of respective countries

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If the tweet is to be taken at a face value, then Sopra Steria has ended its contract with BLS to provide UKVI services. Given the backlash that Sopra Steria received regarding its system failure recently, this was in the offing. This also means yet another bad year for BLS.

Not sure if the market knows about this yet!

I have sold all my holdings at a 15% loss. Paying the price for underestimating risk associated with G2C businesses.

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Great find @shreyas1705 .
I called up investor relations of BLS just now and finally got hold of their CFO. The update I got from him is,the contract has NOT been terminated hence no filing to the exchanges have been done, but hes acknowledged that theres been discussions going on in the UK with Sopra Steria. For obvious reason he couldnt disclose anything much.

This could go either ways but something to look out for.

Niranjan

Yes, BLS is adding little value with increasing automation and greater acceptance of online modes, hence exited today.

I am lost lot of value in this stock but still invested. Now my belief has started cracking. Any advise here from experts? If I hold this for long will it work ?

Just come out with whatever you can recover. I too sold at huge loss.If you read it’s thread, you would find lot of red flags

Hi, are you still following the company? If yes then does the long term growth still hold for the company considering the current situation?

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While ~75% of their revenue streams are implied to be impacted due to CoVID related travel restrictions, ~25% of their revenue streams (G2C and passport renewal) are apparently on track. With the revenues at threat, for an uncertain period of time, i get to understand that the management focus has totally been on cost control. With significant pay cuts across the board, staff retrenchment where required and benefits of reduced rentals (or rental moratoriums etc), costs have been well under control.

The current business environment, thanks to CoVID, has put a question mark on the mere survival of many a companies. We are remain confident that one fine day this too shall pass away (when, is debatable). Survival remains the mantra till then. With a Zero debt status that the company has achieved to manage (end FY20), costs under control & net cash and cash equivalents of the company, i have little doubts on this company’s ability to sail thru this environment. At a market cap of ~500 crs (ex-cash of ~250 crs), i expect valuations to come in the support of price. One must recollect that this company has reported ~100 crs annual profit run rate for the 2 years prior to this, while consistently throwing free cash flows over the last 5 years or more. This hints at a normalised valuation of 5X earnings (whenever earnings normalise), lending support.

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BLS Q1FY21 results and investor presentation attached herewith.

BLS - Q1FY21 results.pdf (3.6 MB) BLS - Q1FY21 Investor Presentation.pdf (578.8 KB)

The company has hosted a investor call on the Tuesday, 4th of August @4:00 pm. Invite attached herewith.

BLS - Q1FY21 - Conference call.pdf (1.0 MB)

I had attended the investor call and have taken down some notes. Hope it helps.

BLS International - Q1FY21 concall takeaways

Disclosure: I have added some small tracking positions over the last couple of days.

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how can every country have an online model for visa processing. There are strict standards of biometric capturing that most countries (especially developed countries) require, which helps filter out immigrants who might not have the right intentions. Even if the whole model moves online (which is highly unlikely), they will still have to capture biometric data and therefore, would need a service provider like them.

What do you exactly mean by cosy Government link? They work with nearly 60 Governments. For me that aspect actually makes it more of an investment thesis. A lot of small caps have questionable managements, but being in an industry that requires a high level of security actually forces this company’s management to have integrity.

They reduced the debt to nil since 2018. Would that make you revisit your thesis?

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Came across a detailed initiating note on BLS.

BLS International - independent report.pdf (924.2 KB)

Disclosure: Was invested and have added positions over the last couple of days.

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