Bhansali Engineering Polymers - An Import Substitution Story!


(nil_71) #228

@vipin111 thanks lot for this report. While I am not focusing on price but report is truly gem given the wholistic nature of the same

Guys- all the pricing assumption will get cleared. BEPL does 50% LT contract and 50% spo


(Gaurav Agarwal) #229

(vipin111) #230

Welcome nil_71.
Fanatic promoters can create fanatic wealth. If one can identify these people early even a few or maybe 1 stock is enough to take ones investment journey through!(Eg: Indra Kumar of Avanti)When I was at the AGM all were busy looking at the balance sheet and none listened to what the promoter had to say. Balance sheets can be cooked up so it is very important to see and hear the Guy we are entrusting our money to.Target is machli ki aankh(Fish’s eye) as Arjuna did.


(Agarwala) #231

Hi Gaurav
Thanks for sharing. Trinseo ABS project is actually a recommissioning and reconversion of a mothballed polystyrene plant. Its capacity of about 80 KPTA is likely to be locally absorbed in China. My worry is that one of the global ABS majors may enter India.


(hamed) #232

I think this one will give 100% revenue growth for next two quarter which makes it attractive in spite of huge run.


(AMN) #233

One tweet by Amit Mantri and the stock hits LC. Looks like people have stopped using their own brains. The price manipulation took place nearly 15 years ago in 2003. Also SEBI fined some market operators, not the company management. Company performance has been excellent with all debt paid off to become debt free. Cash flows are great too.

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(Akshay Kumar) #234

Power of social media!


(Agarwala) #235

A recent (Nov 29, 2017) report by Ambit Capital Pvt. Ltd. on Bhansali Polymers absolves BEPL of any wrongdoings on its page 36…


(madhavikkutti) #236

I feel, the negative impact created due to this tweet will not last long, especially since Ambit has been extremely positive about BEPL in its recent research report and its “fanatic” promoter. Their report was specifically mentioning that, in all their channel checks, they have received very good feedback on the promoters


(abhi2525) #237

Yes I have read this Ambit story and its a hope story more than anything else. While I like the sector, the expectations embedded in current prices are way too much for any new entrants to make money… This will tank 30-40% easily if growth is anything less than 75-100%.


(Agarwala) #238

Nov '17 Auto numbers are excellent that is good for Bhansali…


(Chandragupta) #239

Why was this company trading at around Rs.25 till March? What really changed since then? If someone can shed some light on this, we can decide whether this vertical rise is a bubble, manipulation or genuine re-rating.


(Vinay Arya) #241

Also, the simplistic comparison of 10x price movement then and now is so devoid of context:

  1. Strong demand and Buyers preference for domestic supply of ABS resulting in better operating environment in the industry
  2. The competitor i.e Ineos reinforcing the above trend in its public interactions
  3. BEPL taking market share aggressively due to inconsistent performance by Ineos

(arvind.calyx) #243

Happened more than 2 occasions, you can see the chart below. No matter what such price movements are not so comforting for many people.


(Agarwala) #244

Honorable members of VP…
I became interested in BEPL during 2010 and made a small profit during that rise. But the unique nature of the business stuck to my mind and I kept it under my focus. During the beginning of 2016, I found a sharp rise of volumes on BEPL counter that forced me to look at the things with renewed interest. Thereafter during November '16, I decided to invest. Immediately after that the price and the volume declined. Q3 of FY 17 was disappointing, but I decided to wait for one more quarter. Then the rise started in March '17. As we can see the chart, the rise is supported by exceptionally high volumes. That makes it less likely to be bubble or manipulation. I have been carefully looking at the delivery volumes that have been consistently high during this rise. In view of this my humble opinion is that it is more likely to be a genuine rerating, although there may be different opinions.
I will like to draw the attention of the members that the delivery volume today was nearly 70 percent on NSE, and more than 14 lack shares changed hands. That is roughly 1 percent of the total equity. This shows that BEPL might be evoking genuine interest even now.
I always welcome contra views because that is in my interest and for the safety of my money. Please give your arguments in favor of this being a bubble or manipulation.


(Abhinav Mehrotra) #245

Just saying, it would be better to look for disconfirming evidence in the pattern you are suggesting. That is to look for similar price & delivery volume action in stocks which were rigged in the past, if you find similar patterns in Satyam, Himachal futuristic, opto circuits, etc. we can deduct with surety that the pattern you are looking for reveals absolutely nothing about “genuine interest”, “genuine rerating”.


(Agarwala) #246

Hi Abhinav
Thanks for your cautionary words. I will tend to agree with you, but we as investors have to play the game of what is less likely and what is more likely. You have come up with examples that we should keep in mind. If Bhansali is cooking up its books like Satyam, my investment is doomed. If it has huge receivables like Opto, again it is the same thing. But we are always wiser by hindsight. I want the knowledgeable members to come up with foresight. Why should we call BEPL story a bubble? Opto, Satyam, and Himachal were different and unique. Which one of these has a resemblance with BPEL and in what way?
The argument that I have given cannot be considered a perfect argument. It is only one of the arguments that can be extended. And every argument will have a counter-argument. It would be really helpful, if you give your own argument rather than countering my argument. I will be looking for some genuine foresight from you.


(yudiagg) #247

I would put a lot of faith in the research report of a respectable
professional agency like Ambit and also positive reports of moneycontrol
and Money Life magazine than a stray half baked/ half truth tweet of an
excited young gentleman who has only recently entered the field of
investing. However, the tweet has done some very good stuff - it has
removed the froth and also those investors who have little understanding of
stocks/business.

The correction is certainly very good.

In long term - stock price always follow genuine business growth. Let us
keep a close watch on the genuineness of financial numbers every quarter.


(Abhinav Mehrotra) #248

We were discussing one parameter which you were looking at to decide this is a genuine story. I just asked you to extend your sample before arriving at a conclusion.

Instead of using the same parameter we were talking about to find disconfirming evidence, you start comparing individual stories and their hindsight faults.

I never asked to compare them on other parameters.

Furthermore, since you are not interested in improving your argument which was my intention, lets end this here.

My suggestion was more methodology related rather than BEP related.

As for foresight, I doubt even if I would have it, I would know beforehand that it is genuine as you require. Human biases and limitations ensures we are not soothsayers.


(shreys) #249

@yudiagg I politely disagree. The person who tweeted has stellar credentials and significant experience in equity investments. It wouldn’t be prudent to disregard his observations. After all, past has been, many a time, a great indicator of what’s in the offing. I haven’t experienced a bear run yet but in this bull run several acquaintances of mine lowered their guards and lowered their evaluation parameters which finally led to losses.