Aksh Optifibre fundamental analysis


(cool_raj) #41

But with the advent of Reliance JIO …this is getting really disrupted.
Currently they have rolled 4G on test basis for 3 months which is entirely free with unlimited data.
But I am sure when they officially launch it will be more cheaper then broadnad plans…
The 4G wifi device which they give can be carried anywhere in pocket also.

So we need to watch this…
My main issue here is that… in India we may surpass braodband era …which was there in the case of western world


(Meetesh) #42

Aksh exports optic fibres to more than 60 countries many of which are far ahead of us in terms of technology. When even those countries are using optic fibres I dont think we can envisage broadband connectivity to happen in India without the use of optic fibres


(Mehnazfatima) #43

SOME COPY AND PASTE FROM ANNUAL REPORT.2015-16…STORY IS GETTING BETTER AND BETTER…In fact I am loving it:):slight_smile:

DEMAND

Huge demand of Optical fibre cable has led to industry wide shortfall of fibre supply and surge in fibre prices, which surely calls for scaling the overall manufacturing capacity. Aksh is set to cater to the market demand and has planned phased expansion at all its divisions to meet future requirements. The performance capacity of the fibre manufacturers would be a game changer, not only for the domestic operations but for exports as well.

The industry experiencing solid increase in exports: close to 9%. The percentage change in demand for optical fibre in India of 19%,…**The company has strong commitment to breach Rs 500 Crore barrier in the coming year (FY 17)**

Data usage has been growing dramatically, particularly due to streaming services, and is expected to continue that path in the year ahead. WiFi usage will continue to be key, especially as carriers look to offload more mobile traffic onto broadband networks (especially fibre) as well as considerations around other spectrum efficiency technologies and potentially unlicensed spectrum solutions (i.e., LTE-U). Voice over LTE (VoLTE) and Voice over Wi-Fi (VoWiFi) services will also be a key focus to help carriers rationalize networks and potentially offer improved and expanded services.

ExPANSION

To cater upcoming robust demand in Optical Fibre Industry and also to maintain its leadership position, Board of Directors also approved capital expenditure of Rs.95 Cr for expansion and modernization of existing manufacturing facilities and to enhance the capacity in Optical Fibre by 100%, Optical Fibre cable by 50% and Fibre Reinforced Plastic by 200%.

_he capacity expansion is being strategically planned to cater the market demands and is on track to become operational during Fy 2016-17.

The demand for FRP is also set to rise by 9 % during the current year as compared to the previous year. It is anticipated that the demand of FRP will rise by 18-20% by 2020 as compared to Fy 2015-16. Aksh share of FRP market is ~ 21%, which is set to rise by >10% by 2020.

Diversification

During the year, with a view to increase product portfolio and brand presence, Board of Directors decided to enter into new line of business to manufacture Ophthalmic Lenses. The operation of proposed manufacturing facilities will be initiated during 2016-17 and the same is to be completed in a phased manner in next 3-5 years with production capacity of 200,000 pairs of lenses per day at a project outlay of INR 85 cr. Currently, 95% of domestic requirement of ophthalmic lenses is met through imports. There is no Indian Manufacturer with such huge capacities and there is handful of organised players in India. Setting up these facilities in India shall give a boost to make India as self reliant and is a notable step towards “Make in India” project. It shall also be a step forward towards sustainable growth of Company in years to come

In India alone around 450 million people need eye correction and only 25% get proper treatment. This creates a huge potential for selection of our product of ‘Ophthalmic Lens’. The ophthalmic lens market in India is largely unorganised and dependent on imports. Aksh is looking to aggressively tap into this market and the need to have an organized player providing a world class product at “Make in India” prices. This project is not just an offline product diversification but an organized phased movement to venture into the greater optical engineering space; which the company has extensive experience in.

Now we come to the valuation aspect…or the extent of undervaluation…

The current assets are 386 crores…if we subtract current liabilities of 163 crores and non current liabilities of 50 crores…that still leaves us with around 173 crores…and market cap of Aksh is around just 230 crores… for a company which generates 33 crores of cash flow from operating activities…Aksh is now almost a net net stock…

If Aksh is able to cross 500 crores topline in the present financial year…when the capacity expansion comes on stream by end of this year and the acquisition of unitape is completed…the topline may as well jump to 1000 crorers and more by end of next financial year…

And that satisfies all the doubts about Aksh fundamentals…On a broader level its faboulous…I am quite OK with the shareholding pattern (the number of shares held by the promoters is constant, although percentage holding dropped)…Broad picture investing does not require quarter to quarter monitoring of performance…Or as Daniel Kahneman tells us, broad picture approach is better suited than micro management approach…

So now its time for me to sleep over my investments in Aksh and let the time work its magic over this stock…and TIME is a friend of this wonderful little company…its getting better and better with time.

From now on., I will be monitoring the progress of Aksh mostly through Technicaals…fundamentals don’t need much monitoring…

Disclosure: Disproportionately invested in Aksh…as I go back to rereading of the book …Concentrated Investing- Strategies of the World’s Greatest Concentrated Value Investors by Allen C. Benello.


(Meetesh) #44

Hope everyone is enjoying the ride in Aksh opti today. This is just the trailor Movie Abhi baaki hain mere dost


(Mehnazfatima) #45

I was too excited after reading the Aksh Annual Report…if you look at my above post, it was written at 2 am in the night…An investment in Buffett style…Value plus growth…and now positive long term technical too…

Since yesterday night my condition is like…

Saaqiya aaj mujhe neend nahin aayegi
Suna hai teri mehfil mein rat jaga hai…:):slight_smile:


(Manish) #46

Hello …
Would like to know your poetic feelings :wink: after today’s move and decisive closing …
And it would be great if you could guide Us with your charts … What’s next to come up… Where is next resistance and what level is better to Keep the up move sustainable and breakout !!!
Disc:- invested yesterday !


(Mehnazfatima) #47

Manishji: If you have bought today, then your entry price is quite good…both time wise and price wise…you can think of exit maybe after 1-2 years…for a stock which is in rangebound movement since last 7 years, it does not make sense to have any short term targets…

.if you want to look for a pattern, then you can compare Aksh to the breakout pattern in some of the smaller sugar stocks …or the microcap pharma companies in sept 2013…any and all technical systems would have got you out very prematurely…from these stocks which started moving up after 3-6 years of languishing at lower levels…

Now only two things matter…If there is a range breakout I Aksh (above 22-23 levels), then the stock may embark on a long loooong rally.

If there is no range breakout…then you can exit again near your purchase price or you can wait for a few months for another breakout attempt.

The song for Aksh is like:

Inteha ho gayi intezaar ki
Aayi na kuch khabar mere yaar ki OR

Hum intezaar karenge tera qayamat tak,
Khuda kareh ke qayamat ho aur tu aaye

:slight_smile:


(Mehnazfatima) #48


(Maninders1) #49

Nice post, looking forward to invest but not sure.
If anybody can help me, who are the customers for the cables/wires they are selling ?


(Mehnazfatima) #50

I have been reading up the Annual reports of the compititors of Aksh and here is what i have noticed…

The whole of the Annuual report of Vindhya telecom is devoted to the great prospects of rising demand for optical fibre cable…but then only around one third (360 crores) of topline of Vindhya is generated from optical fibres…and the annual report makes no mention of any capacity addition to cater to the increasing demand for optical cables…therefore, it appears that there may not be a huge rise in topline of vindhya…

And the next company…Birla ericcson is a wonder…it has managed to report lower topline numbers inspite of such huge demand for optical fibres…

Both birla ericsson and vindhya belong to the same promoter group and are very much lacking in what Keyenes calls as - animal spirits. They are victims of Birla - Lodha dispute over the will of Priyamvada Birla…and will churn out stable but unimpressive performance.

The company which is really bullish on demand for optical cables is Sterlite technologies…the AR has 4 lengthy articles which explain in detail how and why the demand for optical fibre cables will increase…around half (1600 crores) of turnover of sterlite comes from optical fibre cables…

I have not done much analysis of Shilpi …because it has risen very rapidly from 60 to 210 and most of the good news is priced in…

Aksh optifibre is the only company wholly and solely catering to optical fibres and has gone for such massive capacity expansion…by next year, its turniver from optical cables can reach 600-700 crores and from FRP rods to 200-300 crores…

Aksh appears to be the ideal investment vehicle to ride the boom in optical fibre demand…its a yong stallion raring to gallop…it intends to increase its marketshare by 10% in a sectore where demand is growing by 19% per annum…


(Mehnazfatima) #51

Those interested in learning about the future prospects of optical fibre cable industry may read the Annual report of Sterlite Technologies…it has some very informative articles by the companys top people… very informative and hugely optimistic about growth of this industry - whose time has finally come.


(Macha) #52

Good conviction and study of business model reflect in your detailed reply.


(kbc0812) #53

Disclosure: No Holding, no tracking, As a technical guy from comm field interested in to understand current scenario of comm.
Copy paste form The Hindu Business line JUN 11:
The company in a postal ballot notice sent to shareholders has sought their approval to change some clauses in its Memorandum of Association (MOA) that will enable it to operate new businesses related to eyeware, lighting and financial technologies that include ATM business as well.

Aksh has sought change in MOA “to design, manufacture, sell, market, retail and deal as distributor, wholesaler, retailer and render after sales services of sunglasses/ prescription glasses and frames, lens, hearing aids and related accessories“.

It has sought approval to engage in business activities incidental thereto such as eye checking, optometry, contact lenses and other accessories and to import, export, deal in merchandise related to the eyewear business.

The board of the company has already approved Rs. 85 crore for the diversification of its product portfolio to manufacture 2 lakh pair of ophthalmic lenses per day in phased manner to mitigate business risk and improve company’s business performance.

Aksh has sought shareholders nod for full-fledge entry in to business of “all types and description of lighting products and its fixtures” including incandescent lamps, CFL, tube lights, LED lights, solar products, including solar lanterns, solar lights and its fixtures.

The company is also looking to venture in to providing financial technologies like biometric, smart card, magnetic card, EMV Card, one time password, bank pins and development of India’s payment system industry, providing software application, data management, cash management etc.

Aksh has also sought nod to carry on the business of providing intermediary ATM Deployer (IAD) services, White labeled ATM operator (WLAO) services, including but not limited to setting up or owning or operation of ATM network.


(Meetesh) #54

Aksh Opti…
Our esteemed clients include top 10 Optical Fibre Cable manufacturing Companies including: Corning, Draka, Prysmian, Nexan, Fujikura, and Furukawa. We are currently exporting to more than 30 countries across the globe.


(Meetesh) #55

Some more details of their customers

http://www.wire-tradefair.com/cipp/md_wiretube/custom/pub/show,lang,2/oid,12726/exh_id,1635/~/Web-ProdDatasheet/prod_datasheet


(Maninders1) #56

Thanks Meetesh… Really appreciate


(Meetesh) #57

(Meetesh) #58

Aksh going bonkers. Up 13% on a day like this


(Macha) #59

Finally it is catching up with other 4G wave


(skrksb61) #60

Take a bow Ma’am, you stand vindicated!

Disc.: invested recently.