Aksh Optifibre fundamental analysis


(Manish) #61

Dear @Mehnazfatima Ji,

Hello, Congratulations on the spurt of Aksh Optifibre … :slight_smile:
your conviction and detailed study has started paying off in style
that too on day like this … where markets were bleeding !
Hope to see Aksh trading in a good uptrend from here on…
closes above its much Strong resistance 22-23 now …
this rally today should be backed by more positive news now,
and hope so it is not a Pump and Dump scenario now …

And ofcourse Double Congratulations to You ,
Seems like Mr. D D Sharma has started Following you :wink:

Regards,
Manish.


(Manish) #62

@Mehnazfatima

Great movement with volumes …
Congrats once again for your analysis…
And being one of the first to judge this movement… Of Aksh

Now Mmb is like a fish market …
Everyone taking credit …
But you were the one who was very strong on this board throughout…
Welldone !!!

Regards


(Mehnazfatima) #63

Manishji: It appears that Aksh is a company whose time has finally come…This was supposed to happen around 16 years ago…the dot com / internet boom of 2000 also saw a boom in communication cable laying in USA…perhaps in anticipation of such a boom, the promoter Dr Kailash Chaudhry ventured hugely into optical fiber cable business…

In india from 2000 onwards there was a boom in cell phone / telecom and internet usage but sadly the required optical fibre demand did not materialize in that period…but instead of foraying into real estate / infra the promoters of Aksh kept improving the company by expanding capacity, doing backward integration and focussing on various factes of the same business - more particularly becoming leaders in production of FRP rods and also FTTH (Fibre to the home)…another foray in a field similar to FTTH was the e kiosk business in Rajasthan.

Another noteworthy aspect of aksh has been that capacity expansion has been undertaken in a slow and steady manner without adding much of debt…therefore, now that optical fibre cable demand has finally come to India due to Digital India / smart cities / 4g / FTTH / and e governance…Aksh has some unique features which will serve as atleast a temporary moat (for 5-7 years)…

  1. it is fully intergrated Optical fibre cable manufacturer focussing solely on this business and having developed considerable expertise and reputation and supplying quality goods to a host of big guys…

  2. It has very less debt and that combined with backward integration makes it a low cost producer of Optical fibres

  3. Its capacity expansion is perfectly time and will enable the company to grow rapidly…while there is no significant capacity addition by other two players Vindhya and Birla Ericcson…


(Mehnazfatima) #64

As I have written earlier too…very good sectoral prospects, strong company fundamentals, technical poised for a breakout…all these combined with very strong indications of presence of operator cartel makes it a very explosive mixture…Investors can expect an explosive rally which may propel Aksh towards 50-60 levels…in the next 2-4 months itself…


(Manish) #65

@Mehnazfatima Ji …

ThankYou Mam once again for the detailed write up and giving Us more Fundamental info about the company …

Really looks like time has come for Aksh to fire all Cylinders … And make up to the Bull markets return it missed …

Hope so your convictions in Aksh prove to be right as you had guessed in Sugar sector rerating … Waiting for the Multiple Year breakout to happen and trade above it comfortably…

End of the day will be waiting to see your Chart setup … Along with some poetic feelings :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:

Regards


(Mehnazfatima) #66

The biggest challenge for retail investors now is to hold on to our investment in Aksh and not get thrown off by trend volatility…if the upmoves are so strong, then downmoves too will be strong…just hold on …

The song for this occasion is…

Chalte chalte mere yeh geet yaad rakhna
Kabhi alvida na kehna. Kabhi alvida na kehna
Rote haste bas yun hi tum gungunate rehna
Kabhi alvida naa kehna…


(Meetesh) #67

1.10 cr shares got delivered today on both the exchanges put together. Something big is sure underway and hopefully it’s only positive :slight_smile: .


(Mehnazfatima) #68

MY PERSONAL VIEW:

If you look at the daily charts…the stock has crossed the resistance line with a PRICE GAP and with unprecedent volumes…infact, it crossed both the resistance lines with a price gaps .and you already know about the volumes and delivery percentage on both the gap days…

…in technical analysis, this is called BREAKAWAY GAP…It signals the beginning of new trend and may not be filled anytime soon…or may remain unfilled…THAT MEANS…IF TRUE…THE STOCK MAY NOW KEEP GOING UP AND UP IN THE NEAR FUTURE…The correction / profit booking that many market players are expecting may not happen…

You can just google for Breakaway gap and find out about it…I remain very bullish and fully invested…no selling or profit booking for me now…


(manish) #69

Any idea why the promoter holding has gone down in last 1 year.


(rknshah) #70

How would you rate Vindhya compared to Aksh? Thanks


(Chirag) #71

According to me Vindhya and Aksh are fundamentally similar.

Valuation wise Aksh is little expensive because it showed good yoy growth last qtr compared to Vindhya. Finance cost of Vindhya is also more compared to Aksh.

They have similar profit margins.


(Ram Arvin) #72

Hi Mehnaz, the delivery percent is very low today and monday… only around 27%…does it mean the stock is more speculated and not bought for long term. Will the price fall so that I can buy.

Please give your opinion.

Rgds
Ram


(Meetesh) #73

Forget the percentage look at the quantum of shares being taken up for delivery. It’s mind boggling.


(Mehnazfatima) #74

Arvindji: for me the ideal purchase price for Aksh Optifibre was around 15 and then around 17-17.5 level…now that the stock has gone up by around 40%, the margin of safety stands diminished to that extent.

It is quite possible that the stock may fall and test either of the two breakout line from above…a bounce after this test of breakout line would provide a very good opportunity to buy Aksh Optifibre…


(arvind) #75

Hi Mehnazfatima, Congrats for predicting so rightly…My only worry is the service business they are doing which is burning their cash from fiber division otherwise we will have good ride as you predicted. One thing I want to know in your chart postings what is the cyclic Avg(E,xx) thing below price charts ?? and which software are you using for charts?


(Mehnazfatima) #76

Thats a non standard momentum indicator with mu own settings that i use for timing my entry (usually)…its not part of any software package…


(arvind) #77

Thanks Mehnaz…Can you please educate us how to plot it?


(Mehnazfatima) #78

Rather than going into minute details of technical analysis and indicator construction / settings, would it not be better to focus on the stock - Aksh Optifibre.

In the last 3 days, Usha Jain has sold 36 lakh shares of Aksh which she had purchased last year. If it emerges that this is a reversal of last year’s trade…i.e if Dr Chaudhary buys an equal number of shars(approx), as sold by Usha Jain, then it would be a super bullish news…


(Meetesh) #79

Lets await the confirmation of this news. If the promoters indeed up their stake through purchase from.the open market then nothing can stop this stock from being rerated.

Lets wait and watch and keep our fingers crossed


(Meetesh) #80