Aksh Optifibre fundamental analysis

(devansh_god) #21

Aksh Daily Chart.
What worries me is the breaking of a strong support trendline on closing basis. Although the price seems to have taken support from the trendline, the break is worrying. Next week seems to be key in determining weather this trendline is still valid or not.
I’d hold with a S/L of 14.75 (Lows of the trendline breaker candle).
Mehanz ji, even though the delivery % is above 50%, lack of decent volumes during the fall looks worrying. Only big volume day was the first day (4-7-16) of the current leg of the fall. What indications did you see to suggest that weak hands are exiting? And heavy accumulation is going on?

Meanwhile, volumes in general have picked up since July last year. So, it sure looks promising in the long term!!
Even in the medium term, if the lower channel trendline holds, we can see prices upwards of 21 IMHO.

DISC: Invested. Added more on trendline touch at 15.10.

(Meetesh) #22

Acquisition of 100% shareholding in Unitape,located at Silvasa a manufacturer of FRP rods underway. Due diligence is underway and will be completed in 15 days.

Topline of 105 cr comapred to 93 cr last year and EBITDA at 15.94 cr vs 12.82 cr. Higher taxation as compared to NIL taxation last year leads to a fall in NP from 11.09 cr to 8.62cr. A Healthy EPS of 0.53 reported for this qtr. All in all a satisfactory result as compared to the price movement.

(Mehnazfatima) #23

Fundamentals are good…debt / finance cost is quite low…Unitape adds another 2 lakh kilometers per annum FRP capacity…this is in addition to the capacity expansion by Aksh which is supposed to be completed this year…Digital India program gaining strength…4g roll out…fundamentals are good and improving .

Now its for the bullish technicals which already show a turnaround to take over. Its an operator driven stock under huge accumulation. It was moving just 2 rupees plus or minus from a base price of 15 rupees.

Perhaps, the time for a range breakout is near…breakout from a 5 year long consolidation.

Glad that o am quite well invested in Aksh …perhaps a little bit more addition now ( if possible)…monthly, weekly, daily charts all aligned for a big breakout…waiting for the operator / promoter to ignite this rocket

(Meetesh) #24

A barrage of negative comments on MMB gives me hope that the upmove in aksh is not too far off. Weak hands are being coaxed to exit and fear mongering with targets of 1 etc will only aid such sentiments further as mkts themselves are quite weak.
Looking forward to a good upmove before Diwali this year

(Mehnazfatima) #25

Thanks…this kind of thing only an experienced investor can make out…I am waiting for a turnaround…will add above 15.40…

(devansh_god) #26

I concur with your deduction, brother.
I also look actively at the mmb boards to gauge the sentiment propagated. Mind you, it is not the actual sentiment of the market. Merely, the thinking process, they (big fish) want you to have. Whenever there are doomsday prophecies aplenty on MMB boards, the turnaround probability becomes much stronger.

(Meetesh) #27

Looking at the surge in volumes today I added another 10% to my existing holding. Aksh is looking ripe for a nice jump in the near term

(Mehnazfatima) #28

I have done testing with today’s prices…my momentum indicator turns up on close @14.95 and above

(Meetesh) #29

Lets hope it does close above those levels.

(Meetesh) #30

Perhaps the breakout will happen with the announcement of the takeover of the co in Silvassa.

(Meetesh) #31

Some.of the operator IDs are giving higher targets of 19 and 25 just so that they continue to stay relevant post the upmove if any.

(Meetesh) #32

I meant the Operator IDs on MMB

(Mehnazfatima) #33

Thanks for your guidance Meetesh,…I too purchased a bit more of Aksh today…@15.10

(Mehnazfatima) #34

(Meetesh) #35

Aksh seems to be falling by a few percentages every single day. Any idea what’s happening here and why this type of a movement has been seen? Also technically it seems that it’s broken all its supports. At what point should one contemplate selling and exiting either partially or completely ???

(Mehnazfatima) #36

Aksh is having a range bound price movement…i suggest that you give it some more time…decide about selling around mid sept…lets see how the monthly chart behaves next month…if the monthly momentum indicator turns down, it would be time to exit…

(Meetesh) #37

Will await your update. I am waiting for the reaction of the stock price to the announcement of the take over of unitape. It will certainly be followed by a management interview and after reading a lot of articles and QnA sessions of Mr Chowdary I think it will be extremely positive and enlightening. Don’t see any logical reason for a breakdown unless there’s something that lurks beyond what our eyes can see

(cool_raj) #38

As 4G is getting rolled out at very cheap prices with fatser speeds, what will be the future for optical fibre for broadband stuff.
As now the comaprison will be between Mobile braodband(4G) and fixed broadband( used fibre optic).
So I am still looking for future prospects for optifibre

(Vivek Kumar) #39

IMHO, 4G and broadband is not going to intrude in each other’s user base. Even though 4G may be getting cheaper, SMART TVs, Netflix, Youtube and Chomecast will keep attracting customers to have “high speed high data usage” plans at home.

4G cannot fulfill or take over home use requirements as current pricing. I still see a long way for 4G to go competing with home internet use. I will give an example from HYD IT community.

  • Broadband is cheap. One can get easily get a 20-40 Mbps unlimited plan in 1000-1200 INR.
  • Kids love to choose and watch cartoon. Use a lot of Youtube.
  • School projects and study related materials.
  • Netflix, torrents, Game of thrones and whatnot.
  • Video calling getting a lot of popularity.

I have Airtel 4G 1GB plan and I am very careful for my data usage - Mails, Watsapp, Skype…

(Meetesh) #40

We need to watch out for the price at which they take over unitape. That can be a trigger for the upmove for Aksh opti. Also their enhanced capacity should kick in soon which will result in a higher top line and bottom line