Ajanta Pharma


(gautham1) #642

thanks a ton hitesh. that was very well explained. i really appreciate it.


(Irshad Farrukh) #643

Each word of HiteshBhai is worth gold. A beacon light for lesser mortals like us.


(JUZER) #644

I still remember some moons ago when you had switched from ajanta to unichem.
:smile: admire how you can shift through the noise, clarity of thought,quick reflexes, and unemotional investing style. Hat doff to you sir.


(rajiv goel) #645

Thanks hiteshbhai. Too good.


(Donald Francis) #646

No wonder we are in love with one of the smartest minds (not just in VP) that we come across in our investing journey.

I would request every passionate learner to visit the Man in Baroda :). He is a great host by the way. I still remember I sought out Hitesh in one of my journey to Mumbai in 2010 and asked to meet him in Baroda the next day. His house was getting renovated …and he still gave me undivided attention almost the whole day, among interruptions.

2 things stand out for us when we think of Hitesh in Team VP.

  1. Ability to cut through the clutter - very sharp - and he keeps sharpening the saw :smile:
    We used to marvel at his ability to summarise in 2 minutes Pros and Cons and a good enough entry price band for the business - after say finishing off a Management Q&A of 2 hours

We used to do this with everyone asking everyone to take 2 mins to summarise. Almost all of us would take a week before things actually sunk in for us - and obviously our 2 min summaries wouldn’t be sharp, nor would it be able to present pros and cons in that level of simplicity, and 80%+ complete, just after a Marathon Q&A

2.Unemotional Investing (as Juzer has so aptly mentioned)
I haven’t seen a more ruthless and dispassionate examiner of facts/merits of a candidate in your portfolio (after you have held for a few years). Many of us can be really ruthless about a new prospect, but miss the mark when it comes to invested candidates - easy to get complacent - not this guy!
I have admired this trait much more and have tried to emulate as best as I could - still miles to go.

There is a saying - if you admire some quality in someone greatly, you will slowly start imbibing those qualities - it’s an universal thing - quoted in Bible and our Vedic scriptures as well.

CAUTION POINT: About switching. unless you can sleep peacefully with hits n misses after switching (as Hitesh mentions), do not try to emulate this aspect. Know yourself well - know what suits you. If we are not that sharp (which holds true for most of us) it’s far more easier holding on to a good story where we know the business well, hold management in great esteem, and know the business has a very decent competitive advantage period in front. I subscribe to the view more money is made more easily (read lazily) by holding on to great stories (thru swings of over and undervaluation) than by switching out trying to second guess how far say an Ajanta can go, or Astral or Mayur, or even Avanti, or Atul Auto, or PI industries, or many others can go.

if you belong to this camp, then a very effective way to resist any such temptation is to ensure some steady healthy cashflows coming in on a regular basis (then you can easily resist the temptation to do an all-out-switch and can still invest meaningfully in both). For salaried folks who are financially well-managed, this can work easily. For full-time folks like me, you can work hard at establishing a steady consulting cash flow.


(Srinivasan Sundaram) #647

Hitesh Ji

Each and every response from you is highly educative.

Thanks a lot


( s das) #648

Nice way to describe someone who has the great great ability to pick temporary top in his stocks. Wish to meet you all one day soon.


(Raghav) #649

very interesting views sir. goes on to show your understanding of nature of markets & more importantly your faith in it.
in cricket lingo, this is like seeing the new ball off or waiting for the slog overs knowing that theres definitely going to be one later :smile:

on the flip side, can you throw some ideas on how you manage thinking/emotion when a story doesnt play out as expected or takes too long?
say for ex, switching over to torrent pharma and torrent pharma not performing on expectations for say 6months. how do you assess the scenario then?

PS: there’s no like button for the photos probably, must add that the new photo looks perfect :smile:


(Hitesh Patel) #650

Thanks for all the applause. I dont know how much I deserve it.

@raghavrao,

If there is a case where things dont work out as expected especially on the front of the company reporting numbers as expected or where some other expected triggers dont play out then after the stipulated time, it makes sense to accept that we made a mistake in our investment thesis and exit the position and move on without any recriminations.

And it has often happened that after waiting a long time for the tide to turn for the company and still no returns, once I have exited a company, the things start to improve and even stock price starts to rise. But one has to take it as a part of the game and accept the misses with the hits. As long as the hits provide outsized returns as compared to the quantum of losses in the misses its okay

And one has always to consider the portfolio approach. There will always be a couple of stocks in a portfolio of 8-12 stocks which will not move along expected lines sometimes inspite of the expected fundamentals results coming through, But if the whole PF is performing well then that should be okay. Many a times some investors get caught up with a particular stock in PF and keep worrying about it. So there the PF approach should be helpful.


(Santosh Sinha) #651

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(Amit Sethia) #652

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(Manish Vachhani) #653

Please discuss portfolio related stuff in the portfolio thread. Do not clutter Ajanta thread.


(Sandeep Patel) #654

Ajanta receives USFDA approval for Irbesartan (75, 150 and 300mg). Used for treating hypertension and nephropathy in type II diabetic patients.
http://www.accessdata.fda.gov/scripts/cder/ob/docs/obdetail.cfm?Appl_No=203685&TABLE1=OB_Rx

The total market size for Irbesartan tablets as per IMS is ~$50 million per annum.

Sanofi, Ajanta, Alembic, Apotex, Auro, Cipla, DRL, Hetero Jubilant, Lupin, MacLeods, Mylan, Prinston, Roxane, Sandoz, Sciegen, Teva, Unichem, Watson, Zydus have Irbesartan approval.


(Jey) #655

Getting FDA approval alone is not enough but making it profitable is the real test. I think Ajanta Pharma is one right track in getting approval for the drugs which has the potential of profitability rather than just for the sake of approvals.


(Srinivasan Sundaram) #656

Deleted. posted at Torrent


(Srinivasan Sundaram) #657

Deleted…Posted at Torrent


(Srinivasan Sundaram) #658

Deleted…Posted at Torrent


(Jey) #659

good correction in Ajanta, anybody adding up


#660

I bought today around Rs 1255 to the tune of 5% of my PF worth. I’m averaging up from Rs 360 levels. Will keep buying more if there is any “Ajanta Discount Sale.” :smiley:

Trading at less than 30 times forward PE and looks fair for a 15-20% growth predictable business with US business kicker yet to play out.


(Amit) #661

Does any one correlate the reason for recent fall from 1450 to 1170. All most 25-30% in 2 months.

I assume that ZAR vs INR fall from 4.7 to 4 might be the reason as most of the revenue around 60% from south Africa and recent correction on USD to INR might highly impact on revenue etc.

Is it correct correlation or I am missing something ?