This is their Expansion Plan outlay from Q1FY24 presentation:
Whioe this is their Expansion Plan outlay from Q2FY24 presentation:
How come this big difference in projections just one quarter apart?
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Finally release of share pledges happened.
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I was reading about M/s Pakka Ltd., wherein I came across an instance of a merger of a company owned by the promoters into M/s Pakka Ltd. As per my analysis, the valuation given to the merged company was very generous. I request your valuable inputs.
As per AR 2022-23, the company informed that it has absorbed by merger another company, called Yash Compostables Limited (YCL). The Scheme had been approved by the Honāble National Company Law Tribunal, Allahabad Bench vide order dated April 18, 2022. As such, 28,38,500 Equity Shares of Face Value of Rs. 10/- each of Pakka Limited were allotted on 13.05.2022 to the Shareholders of YCL.
AR 2022-23, Page 119,
In this way, around 7.45% of the company went to YCL shareholders.
From the Merger related documents available on website of Pakka Ltd., at least 99% of the shareholders of YCL were promoters of Pakka Limited.
So, it is clear that ~7.45% of the equity holding in Pakka ltd after the merger went to the existing promoters of Pakka Ltd only.
Now, the NCLT scheme annexure gives the basis of valuation of YCL as follows: ā
Pdf named āYPL NCLT Convened Meeting- Notice to equity shareholders, pages 123-142.
As such, the methods used to value YCL and āPakka Ltdā were āDCF methodā and āMarket Price methodā, respectively, as Pakka Ltd was already listed on exchanges.
As the DCF takes into account the future projections, following were the projections used: ā
So, the revenue was projected to grow at a CAGR of `~46% from FY 2020 to FY 2023.
Similarly, PAT was projected to grow from loss of -1.3 cr to profit of 16.2 cr.
Further, the valuer says that the management of YCL has forecasted companyās earnings.
The valuer did not feel any need to question such high projections.
As a result, the Equity value of YCL was calculated as ~118 crores as on 01.06.2020, whereas it was still making loss of 1.3 crores as of 31.3.2020.
AR 2022-23, Page 249 of Pakka Ltd shows that YCL has negative Net assets as on 01.04.2020.
Now, if we compare the projected revenues of YCL with actual figures from Pakka Ltd. ARs, we see projections were indeed too high. (Although not directly comparable, but since YCL was mostly making tableware products, I am using āMoulded productsā revenue from Segmental reporting in Pakka Ltd.
(in cr) FY 2020-21 FY 2021-22 FY 2022-23
Projected Revenue 344 516 670
Actual Revenue 23 32 53
Total Revenue of Pakka, after merger 184 291 408
Even the total revenue of Pakka Ltd. is way less than the projected revenue of YCL alone.
Also, the Moulded products division was not able to report profits even in FY2022-23, whereas it was projected that YCL would have ~16 crores of PAT in that FY.
Based on the information discussed above, it seems to me that promoters were able to get a bigger pie of Pakka ltd by valuing the YCL at exorbitantly high valuations.
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Thanks a lot brother, even though the promoters were coming out in open and declaring that we have nothing to hide and are in talks with nestle and shareholders can visit the plant and blah blah blah. I really felt something was off so avoided giving 20 p/e, although stock has done well but still i donāt think it deserves anything above 10 p/e. I myself did a little bit of scuttlebutt and found that whatever the management might claim but wholesalers are avoiding this because of inconsistent product quality. I donāt know how it might pan out but all i know is i am not giving this company anything above 10 p/e. As far as QSRs are concerned consistency is important, so that whole dream of selling to anyone and everyone falls apart, and further about flexible packaging, i think huhtamaki is doing fantastic job, cracking nestle code wonāt be easy. Other than that you can expand capacities as much as you want, no one is stopping you.
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I second this thought, good management first delivers quality products, here in the case of chuk they are yet to be profitable, all of their growth is delivered from their commodity paper from which the market is ready to 3-4x multiple.
If the paper cycle turns, I mean when there will be degrowth.
As per building capacity, chuk products is yet to be successful and they are already building massive capacities for idk what. If you read satia calls you will know the demand is low, pricing is also half decent, and they are running on half capacities for their molded products
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PAKKA LTD RESEARCH REPORT, DOWNLOAD FROM THIS LINK.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1D5M6mCqkNJWzRmHcoX3AGe8OLr9DhTzX/view?usp=drivesdkā¦
TWITTER - https://x.com/SouravKhara4/status/1759607867076690183?s=20
THIS IS JUST FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSE. DISCLAIMER: I AM NOT SEBI REGISTERED RESEARCH ANALYST/ ADVISOR.
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Canāt seem to open this can you please post it again
PAKKA LTD PERFORMANCE NOTE FOR Q4 FY24 DOWNLOAD FROM THIS LINK.
DISCLAIMER: I AM NOT A SEBI REGISTERED RESEARCH ANALYST/ ADVISORY.
THIS REPORT IS JUST FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSE.
In Q4, Mr. Ved announced that they have switched their investment banker from a Latin American company to Nomura. Nomura indicated that there is no project similar to the one conceptualized by the Pakka team. Furthermore, Mr. Ved mentioned their plan to raise ā¹175 crore through a Qualified Institutional Placement (QIP). However, investors wanted the pricing to be ā¹250 per share, which was not feasible as the share prices had risen above ā¹350. According to SEBI guidelines, the average price of the last six months must be considered. Fortunately, the share price has since decreased, and investors for the ā¹175 crore QIP are ready. Once they can proceed with the placement at ā¹250 per share in compliance with SEBI rules, it will happen immediately. If this does not occur, they have also filed for a rights issue at ā¹250 per share as an alternative option.
The total capital expenditure for India is ā¹675 crore, with an additional ā¹75 crore required for equity infusion in the Gautmala project, bringing the total to ā¹750 crore. The funding plan includes raising ā¹675 crore through QIP, covering 20% through internal accruals, and financing the remaining amount with debt.
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Raising ā¹175cr at ā¹250/share means issuing 70 lakh shares. With company at present having ~392 lakh shares, the dilution will be ~18%, which is too high. The promoter holding will go down from ~47% to ~40%.
Another issue is that the company having ~400 cr of sales and ~50cr yearly PAT will be taking 375cr of debt on its books. That is very risky scenario.
Yes but looking at the future prospects , sustainability is the way of life , the company will do well and the equity dilution is temporary. But when the factory in Guatemala comes in stream in mid 2025 we can see a remarkable improvement in performance. Till then the business offers a chance to buy imho.
Any comments from experts are welcome
Dicl: Invested and slowly accumulating
During the Q4 conference call, Ved clarified that there would be a moratorium period for the loan, meaning that principal repayments will begin only after the commencement of commercial production for the Jagruti project. Additionally, the interest on the debt incurred until commercial production starts is included in the project cost.