Yash Pakka - (Previously Yash Paper) - Rising from ash

Any views here:

Today Randomly opened their AR - Just blown away by their 2025 targets:

-TTM sales 212 sales and 26 Cr profits.
-They are targeting to make 1360 sales with 240 Cr profit by 2025
-Present Market Cap around 305 Cr.

Source Q1FY22 Presentation and AR2021:

&

AR-FY2021

Q4FY21 Concall:

Capacity expansion, Capex Planned: 240 Cr, 75/25:Debt/Equity

Note: All Promoter holding of 45.15% is pledged.

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Our present: Our manufacturing facility is
located in Ayodhya, Uttar Pradesh, which is
at the heart of India’s sugarcane belt. Our
integrated operations comprise:
• 130-TPD pulp mill that produces both
bleached and unbleached pulp grades
• 3 paper machines of combined 39,100
MTPA capacity
• 2 power plants that include extraction-cumcondensing
turbines and rice husk-based
FBC boilers
• 145-MT chemical recovery plant
• 14-TPD moulded products capacity across 11 lines

Our paper portfolio: Our products are ubiquitous as they are used in everyday food and FMCG packaging. They comprise low grammage MG industrial bleached and unbleached paper grades ranging between 30-80 GSM. We also produce specialised grades for wrapping, packaging and
interleaving for food and pharmaceutical uses, etc.

Our export presence: Our paper products are available pan-India as well as exported to
30+ countries, used primarily as coloured bag paper for fruit and vegetable packaging.
Our moulded products: Moulded products under the “Chuk” brand are made from
bagasse, a fibre most suited to produce these lightweight products for ensuring ease
of handling, flexibility for protection against damage, and strength to prevent spillages.
The Chuk product range caters to the food industry and comprises compostable
disposables for food services and egg trays for food transportation and storage. Our
customers comprise major QSR chains and restaurant and hospitality players, such as
Starbucks, Pizza Hut, KFC, Café Coffee Day, McDonald’s, Social, Flurys, Haldiram’s, Chai
Point, etc.

Our long-term plans:
Focus on achieving
“Mission 2025” that envisages a turnover of Rs 13.6 bn and profit of Rs 2.4 bn.

There has been a significant shift in my role in the past year. I have now moved to a nonexecutive
position in the Indian operations and lead the global operations from the US.The idea there is to build towards stronger innovation collaborations and investments
in the compostable packaging space. We have established a 100% subsidiary in the
US and will begin to build towards global impact in the coming period.
I do remain involved as the strategic lead overall and we have various plans
to further strengthen our business. We are working on first strengthening the
financials and reducing leverage. We will then be looking towards further expanding
our manufacturing base and are scouting for opportunities for the same. We remain
focused on advancing our compostable products business and thus a strong
operating model is being evolved and implemented.

to during the year?
In 2020-21, while on the one side we
concentrated on the day-to-day, we also
focused on setting ourselves up for the
long-term. So, in a sense, we renewed our
strategy for accelerated growth and value
transformation.

We have chosen to focus our growth
initiatives in sustainable packaging, an area

where we have built leading market positions
and are driving frontline customer-centric
innovation. Thus, we are focusing on strong
and competitive asset creation to drive
accelerated growth. To strive further in
enhancing production capacity of paper and
compostable moulded products, we are:
• Enhancing PM# 3 quality to ensure worldclass
paper with adequate high strength for
bag manufacturing for food packaging
• Expansion of capacity in our moulded
products business by about 25% to 14-TPD
through the installation of 8 new lines
• Growth in our integrated pulp mill capacity
by about a fifth to 160-TPD to ensure inhouse
pulp production for meeting the
increased paper and moulded products
capacities. Notably, our pulp mill capacity is
being expanded to a level that factors any
future inorganic growth opportunities in our
downstream products
• Co-generation enhancement to supplement
growth in production
Q. What prompted the expansion, especially
at this point of time?
Though this might appear as a countercyclical
investment today, the strategy was
seeded years ago. COVID-19 could have
derailed our plans, yet we decided to stay on
course precisely because of it, as the event
has accelerated demand for sustainable,
plastic-free and circular products. There
are huge concerns over plastic all over the
world. At least 22 countries have imposed
a complete ban on it. Paper on the other
hand is the most viable and effective solution
that can reduce fossil-based materials in
packaging. Our moulded products have
a similar identity as they are backyard
compostable and can easily go back to the
earth rather than ending up in landfill.
With the recent development at the domestic
level wherein the government has passed
legislation for enforcing ban on single-use
plastic, we see multifold demand in paper
for packaging where we already have an
entrenched presence through the highest
share of 50%+ in the domestic market. The
upcoming investment will only boost the
quality of our products to global standards
with agri residue as our key raw material.
Similarly, our compostable moulded products
will witness enormous demand, which will
be backed up by capacity enhancement
initiatives. Chuk is a brand widely known
for customer satisfaction and we are
further working to provide the full basket of
products as per customer expectations and
requirements.
Thus, there is a clear case building up
for our products and we are focused on
operationalising our new assets over the
medium-term.
Annual

What’s coming up for this year:
• Retrofitting PM#3 to improve paper quality
to manufacture specialised high-strength
bag paper
• Implementing advanced mill maintenance
practices to ensure best possible utilisation
• Identifying skill gaps and training to narrow
the gap and enhance productivity
• Maintain stock levels of less than 350 MT
• Enhancing export market share from 25%
to 35% (of total production) by augmenting
our global distribution network, especially
in untapped regions
• Building leading positions in glassine and
grease-proof paper, high-strength paper
bags for e-commerce, and paper for food
bags and wrapping
• Developing general and modern trade
channels and fortifying our presence in the
QSR segment
• Exploring an asset-light strategy in
moulded products manufacturing

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Investor presentation…

Target set by the Company for 2025 are mind boggling …

Disclosure invested and 1% of my portfolio

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Targets set are next to impossible to achieve. More concerning is the amount of debt company is taking compared to its size. If the projects didn’t work, company wouldn’t survive. Too risky right now.

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Latest PPT:

The targets remains and the company mentioned in concall they will go for an asset light model.

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YASH PAKKA Q3 Concall Notes: Very Ambitious - CHUK de…….Let’s C……

Q3 Investor Presentation

  • [ ] Refer Investor presentation for Team/New Business Heads and Quarter Nos. - Will end up with highest numbers Next quarter and FY22.
  • [ ] FY 23 Sales break up Targets :
    Pulp + moulded Products - 150Cr, Paper - 350 cr
  • [ ] FY 24 Sales break up Targets :
    Pulp + moulded Products - 300Cr, Paper - 400 cr
  • [ ] Present Capacity Utilisation : Moulded - 58%, (Break even point is 65% for profits), Pulp+Paper-100%
  • [ ] Strategy for Moulded Products - Franchisee route: For faster growth, Supply Pulp & Moulds, and buy back finished Moulded products, Started with first Franchisee-stabilising it, In this year to go with 3 Franchisee. Design with IP registration and Tool/mould will be owned by Company, No one can/should copy Design.
  • [ ] Flexible Package - Different mix of products, looking at certain specific applications, MVP’s (minimum viable product ???) under trail, to go with minimum 100MTon/month and grow month on month, partnerships done, some technical success and outsourcing manufacturing with formulations, create the base paper(others paper now, later will be done with own paper), both food and non-food usage, done successfully sachets kind of products. Now doing food contact packaging. Very buoyant about this. Doing this with Global Companies, will share after success/confirmation.
  • [ ] US Market -
  1. Moulded Products next year, set up franchise route, exploring Mexico with partners.
  2. Innovation partnership with US/EURO players, Flexible package (bio mimicry???) research/exploration with US base organisations
  3. Set up first Pulp Mill outside India with finance options, partnerships to set 200/250 TPD baggasse Pulp unit, 3 countries in exploration.
  4. Technological Platform for compostable package Industry with collaboration for investors/partners with revenue generating option.
  5. In Study stage for Revenues - High complex market, by March will decide/finalise Strategy.
  • [ ] Appointed AFRY consultant for Market study
  • [ ] Funding -
  1. 200cr - Debt + Equity with minimum dilution,
  2. Next cycle Capital (500cr/700Cr) raise explore with all options but won’t dilute at these valuations, will wait for market to recognise us and see.
  • [ ] Inventory : Very High - 1.5 years, RawMaterial Bagasse - seasonal procurement - Sep to Mar, so End of March always shows High Inventory. This is used for the next whole year. March 21 have some COVID impact. But Generally will have Baggase one year (10-12 months) inventory by March end to operate for the next year. Another Raw material Husk - Around 6months inventory - This is the nature of Business.

  • [ ] CHUK - From Investor - In Calcutta Seen Everywhere, Airports, QSR’s, In all Local Markets - why? Quality and Safety, Multiple key Accounts heads setup, regional heads, Larger institutions/QSR heads setup, Distribution/sales setup. Working this setup very well.

  • [ ] CHUK Competition : Zume, Ecoware. Price vs Utility - Zume is Higher and foreign brand, CHUK is Local brand, Premiumness, value, safety and affordable. Zume is premium product with Higher price point. Ecoware is great looking products, cheaper but CHUK beat handsomely in performance in Market. CHUK is priced between ZUME & Ecoware. Newer capacities are strategically placed to go wider and deeper. Next quarter planning - meals trays rolled out for delivery. Innovative products in lineup with customer feedback, safety, thinner and strong products in lineup based market wants/needs.

  • [ ] Future funding how?? - can see Sustainability/ESG funding is real and Huge Change happening. Company future plans/funding are still low in comparison with - Smaller US company - Footprint??? - Half of our size raised 1.6Billion USD. Funding should not be problem once we start delivering our promises. Once present 200cr expansion done, results/rewards are seen then lot of options to raise capital. Observation : Tone is confident this time.

  • [ ] Startup setup Culture is been followed in the organisation.

  • [ ] Current Debt including working capital - 80Cr, majority of this taken for Tableware Project from 2018, will be repaid in future, on the path to streamline our debt portfolio.

  • [ ] CHUK capacities- Present 14TPD, Planning to go 50TPD to 100TDP by Franchise root.

  • [ ] CHUK - Key is Scale and Size ( Decided to go by Franchise root), Our focus is investing/growing in Pulping.

  • [ ] Will Produce only very very High grade Paper above 150Rs/kg for Packaging.

  • [ ] Going with Apple Business Model, OEM model also being exploring. Idea to do at scale and size not small boutique route.

  • [ ] CHUK Challenges - Only around 8Cr per Quarter after 3 years ?? Machine Setup/Capacity Utilisation/Market Challenges with COVID. Over come all. Capacity utilisation to be 80% next 2 quarters.

  • [ ] CHUK partnered with Blinket in this Quarter, and in Talks with Zomota for potential Partnerships with Restaurants. Very buoyant in this space.
    Yash Pakka’s CHUK brand enters partnership with Blinkit

  • [ ] CHUK - From Investor - Seen everywhere, not only in QSR, even in Dhabas.

  • [ ] Sponsoring a conference in LONDON - For Rethinking Materials, to build Global think tank. Biology and Technology/ Global Compostable Packaging ………….

  • [ ] ESOPs/Equity - new Scheme is TeamSOPs in planning for the Team.

  • [ ] Raw Material Availability/Pricing for Bagasse- Power companies in plan to produce Ethonal/Power ??? - Have strong Longterm Relationship with near by Sugar Mills and exploring new partnerships. Bagasse won’t be converted into Ethonal, is only used as fuel to produce Ethonal, presently not big challenge. Stay competitive for procurement.

  • [ ] IRCTC - Not much supply now, complex structure, but open/exploring for major supply once IRCTC in full running.

  • [ ] Might have missed some points - So Take with some sugar and Salt.

From Screener.in



From Q3 Investor Presntation:


From above Interview:

How CHUK was created:

Refer Satia Industries thread for Paper Industry and Tailwinds:

Risks:

Disclosure - Invested, Transactions in Last 15 days.
Not SEBI Registered. Read/Understand/Invest at your own Risk.

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Not co-operating with Rating agency??

Based on my understanding, Company has decided to shift rating agency and, from now on, get it’s rating done by CARE.
Its a usual process followed by old rating agency before they withdraw their rating. new agency assigns rating.

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As far as I know it is not mandatory to provide the renewal fees / updates to any rating agency.

All the companies who hires these agencies go for Issuer Pays model.

Issuer pays model : Currently, the credit rating agencies follow the ‘issuer pays model’, under which the entity issuing the financial instrument pays the agency upfront to rate the underlying securities. However, the Committee observed that such a payment arrangement may lead to a ‘conflict of interest’ and could result in compromising the quality of analysis or the objectivity of the ratings assigned by the agencies. Therefore, it suggested that the Ministry of Finance or the regulators may consider other options as well, such as ‘investor pays model’ or ‘regulator pays model’ after weighing the relevant pros and cons. Alternately, within the existing framework, the appropriate rating fee structure, payable by the issuer may be decided by SEBI, in consultation with RBI and the credit rating agencies.

There is big debate on this model and there is a committee formed to come up with some better model. When a company hires a rating agency on “issues pays model - aka company pays the fees” to review their books and issue a rating. With this ratting, companies goes and negotiates for a better deal with the banks / FI

The recent ILFS fiasco is a best example why it is not enough to believe these rating agencies

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Investment of 5Cr. in Pakka impact ltd.

Disclaimer: Invested

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Am not invested, but I found this video related to this co. May be useful to a few of the VP friends.

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Results are below expectations

promoter pledged shares released
1689c711-a495-4a70-8a20-6d45c8f15cdd.pdf (1.1 MB)

Not so good results from Yash Pakka.

Moulded products has to turn positive for super performance.

Dividend of 2.00 Rs declared, 80 Rs stock price have 2.5% dividend yield - Down side may be protected??

But I am not sure y they give dividend, when require money to grow business. May be I can think of - to release pledge shares, which they have done from above post.

Let’s wait for Concall details.

Disclosure: Invested

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YASH PAKKA Q4 Fy22 Concall Notes:

Investor Presentation Q4Fy22

  • [ ] Refer Investor presentation for Highlights:
  • [ ] Commentary:
    • [ ] Goals - very big and ambitious, only if v can execute. Big break through/achievement in Flexible packing like potato chips packaging, building bigger capacity.
    • [ ] Another innovation v r working-mineral based compostable carry bag from minerals/pellets and bio waste.
    • [ ] FY 23 : Around Capex 200 Cr, Sales Target - 500Crs
    • [ ] FY 24 : Around Capex 500 Cr, Sales Target - 700Crs
    • [ ] The above will be to achieve 2500 Cr turnover by 2025/26.
    • [ ] Talking to every big FMCG company, all r talking, visiting our sites, in US also, clearly seeing a lot of focus on sustainability packaging.
    • [ ] Broad Focus Areas- FOOD Packaging, Food Carry & Food Servicing in the next 5 years.
    • [ ] Build a Strong Team - Business Heads : Paper+Pulp, Compostables(Moulded Products), Innovation, Technology (Refer GCAIMPACT.COM, GCAHUB.COM) & in Investment areas - Refer Slide 11 in Presentation.
      • [ ] PakkaPTE - New subsidiary formed in Singapore.
      • [ ] Key Actions in 2022 : Refer Slide 12 in Presentation.
      • [ ] Ayodhya Plant (2 years delayed) Basic Engineering Finalised, Equipment ordered, finance to be finalised in this current quarter and moved ahead for this project.
      • [ ] New site finalisation for Bagasse (probably outside India)- Next 6 months will be announced, in advance talks.
      • [ ] Moulded Products (new ones??) - Done Beta launch, will launch at scale within year, Franchisee partnership for moulded products - supply pulp, will see big growth there - Refer below Q& A.
    • [ ] Performance FY22: Highest ever production in Paper, pulp and Moulded products. Highest ever exports (10131 MT vs 6976 MT in FY19) - Refer slides 13/14/15/16.
    • [ ] Merger completed, Pledge shares release approved by lead banker, Team Stock options plan approved, Innovation centre in Bangalore.
    • [ ] Revenue from US entity will come from end of FY23(??). Good will of around 4Cr accounted during/for merger/consolidation process.
  • [ ] Q & A :
    • [ ] Input Costs: 24% Impact for Fy22, impact is sudden, not fully taken this year because order book is already there, going forward from Q1 some of the input costs will be considered/mitigated from pricing front. Out look for input costs still going up - Natural gas/Ukraine conflict.
    • [ ] Bagasse also got hit on input pricing front, we already have/purchased Bagasse for this whole year( v purchased in 120 days(seasonal) for whole of next year FY23) so already input cost accounted for FY23. Margins may be better in Q1FY23 vs Q4FY22. Some impact on Borrowing/working capital requirements from the above input cost.
    • [ ] On US operations:
      • [ ] 1.Building the Team, identification of Site (New Factory) and Funding of the project. No income may be next two years from this.
      • [ ] 2.North American market : Deep dive/Outsourcing model is being worked out in this quarter/Transport pulp longer distances - In 6 months partnership finalised. Make/supply products in a year, Revenue may be next year.
      • [ ] 3.Innovation partnerships: Talking to large MNC/joint collaboration/fund rising etc….equity + Debt in US subsidiary.
    • [ ] Innovation in Flexible Packaging: First in market/Patented?? Mineral Based Packaging??
      • [ ] Lot of work done in flexible packaging, lot of trails done with lot of costumers, v r not the first one here, in India scenario probably v r first one, trying to bring out the balance between availability of materials/performance and the cost, Target is in 6 months v will have the product/customer/trails/ and in the market. Strong process followed.
      • [ ] About Mineral pallets - Using industrial waste from our factory, trying to convert into pallets, which can be blown film into different bags, v can make prototype of this using bio polymer, very few companies doing outside India, no one in India is doing as far as they know, may or may not go for Patent as it may be get copied.
      • [ ] What is the USP of this mineral product - Performance and Machinability of the Product is very strong and confidence to customer. Final product - Strong Base Paper will developed which can be sent to converter industry/coating and lamination in house???
    • [ ] Substantial Turnaround of CHUK - two/three different things in working as v speak - Additional capacity through franchise manufacturing, Expect one Hope fully by next quarter (Q1 or Q2 ??), Launching newest line of products in the next quarter (Q1/Q2 ??) like (??)containers, also existing products ramp up, pretty exciting, quantum jump/leap hopefully in the next one or 2 quarters.
    • [ ] May not savvy to meet DII or FII - Only on need basis if required only if it helps.
    • [ ] Other Paper Industry companies had Sales realisation 15/20 % in Q3/Q4, but not for Yash Pakka ?? Different products/markets??
      • [ ] All companies using different raw materials/requirements and also products (Satia - wheat, JK - wood based) in writing & printing paper, board paper, In different Market.
      • [ ] We don’t look ourselves as Paper makers any more - More of sustainability Packaging- Every product v make as to have innovation with a solution - Brilliant answer.
    • [ ] Plastic ban by July1st happens it will definitely helps, if not also no impact on business.
    • [ ] Capex of 200 Crs how r u spending:
      • [ ] 1. Improve Paper machine 3 and make it much better flexible packgae base called MG bleached/grease paper (not sure here terminology ??)
      • [ ] 2. Another paper machine in Ayodhya for another Butter Paper or grease proof paper, used for flexible packaging.
      • [ ] 3. Expand pulp significantly to support moulded products/franchise manufacturing.
      • [ ] 4. Hopefully some for Mineral pellets commercial manufacturing in the next 6 months, if at all it happens?? - Palletisation mineral facility.
      • [ ] 5. Upwards/more than of 200 Crs. for above in Ayodhya site - Debt/Equity or Stratergic investor?? - around 18 - 24 months project??
    • [ ] Outside India Capex - Big plans of USD 200 Million for new site/factory, very initial stage planning?? - Refer commentary and US operations above.
    • [ ] On Franchise Manufacturing of Moulded Products : Developing comprehensive frame work. Looking for partners with experience in Pulp/paper industry. Yash will provide Pulp/process engineering/Product management/operational hand holding till stability/buy back the capacity/product by increasing demand. Pay back for franchise will be around in 5 or 6 years of their investment.
    • [ ] Zomato Partnership: Big focus Area - Still failing in producing/supply/manufacture in large scale, still in W.I.P. Zomato still patiently waiting for big launch, Hopefully in one or two quarters - may be v can see light at the end of the tunnel.
    • [ ] Lead free Products (?? in Flexible packaging or in Moulded Products??) - Design/performance/testing done by key costumers - Unable to manufacture at scale. Still in trail and error, Hopefully in one or two quarters.
    • [ ] FY23 Target of 500 Cr - From Moulded products - 100 Crs, Other 400 Crs from Pulp and Paper, better capacity utilisation/scaling of operations, Hopefully - This is the target v have chosen : we will give our best shot to achieve this.
    • [ ] Other expenses in Q4: Mainly write up of 2 Crs, one time, impair of old assets, another is travel expenses increased post Covid.
    • [ ] Pledge Shares Release - Lead Banker agreed, only procedure formality by 15 June.
  • [ ] My Comments :
    • [ ] They are Still in W.I.P - Still struggling to produce/manufacture in scale, trying to make quantum jump and perfect products.
    • [ ] Still in cautious/dilemma about big Capex spend/ being finalising plans, may be from previous experience/struggle before committing/confirming to market.
    • [ ] But Hats-off to them and their thinking, being a micro/small cap - Saying “we are not a paper company anymore but a sustainable package solution provider/innovator”. Their Margins are supporting this, improving from 15 to 22% over the last 10 years.
    • [ ] Let’s C when they deliver the products from incubation - start crawling/walking and up running - Long way to go.
  • [ ] Might have missed some points - So Take with some Sugar and Salt.
  • [ ] Disclosure - Invested, Not SEBI Registered. Read/Understand/Invest at your own Risk.
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Promoter Issuew in Yash Pakka
Promoter Issues .pdf (1.9 MB)

Pledge, Issue Warrents, Get Morey shares again pledge.

Seems management more interested to fill their own pockets vs creating value for shareholders

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Its a very insightful post by you and clearly highlights the corporate issue in the company. This can be the reason that the market is not willing to pay high PE or atleast the industry-par PE to the script.

Share Warrants:- Promoter Ved Krishna allotted share warrants to himself during the year
2016 at the price of 15rs per warrant. 75,40,000 equity warrants were issued aggregating to
`11.31/- crores.

Share price of the Company in 2016 was hovering at around Rs 15-20.
All the pledges have since been released.
Can you please provide pledge details where it has been mentioned that the pledge by promoters was for their personal use.

Hi Value 2017. Good question you have put you.

This is as per 24th Feb 2021 conference call

Management here says the loans taken are for the expansion of the business and now they understand the investor concerns and are working to de-pledge the same. Note this was feb 2021.

Nothing has been done as the numbers do not connect with what they said.

Today around 15 months since they have been trying no de pledge yet.

The rise in equity was mainly due to the conversion of warrants. 10 FV + 5 rs premium that is 15 bucks as stated earlier.

The increase in the assets was roughly 60-70 crores. In the same period the stock price went from 15 bucks to 60 bucks.

How did this fixed asset block move up. With investments in the business. ?? Looking at the said data in their annual report its difficult to understand.

In a nutshell if the share pledge was done for doing investments in the business. The assets have been adjusted IND IAS taking deemed cost of assets as on 1st April 2016. Then what was share pledge done for. Secondly managment is trying and been 14-15 months after trying attempts nothing has been done.

Some snippets as per my limited understanding whey the promoters might not have used the funds in the business as per my earlier post.

Thank You

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As per above AR 2021 and also old ARs, promoters have provided personal guarantee for loans and security.
Also try to match cash flow for particular year of conversion of shares and addition of fixed assets it looks like it is matching.
Promoters again have increased shareholding by merging Yash compostable to yash pakka.

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