Xpro India - getting bigger?

Xpro india is a small cap company with market cap of 800 crores. It’s part of Birla group with the leadership of Siddhart Birla. Company is a major producer of co-extruded sheets and refrigerator liners for the white goods industry and a sole manufacturer of dielectric BOPP films in India. It also produces cast films which are high clarity films including stretch wrap and cling, especially formulated films for medical disposables, hygiene films & other applications.

Recent initiatives by Central government to promote electronic manufacturing and associated policies has created a level playing field for this company against Chinese competitors. This could be part of a bigger story of China + 1 manufacturing.

Company has a debt to equity ratio of 1.2 but management also indicated that the company expects to close the sales transaction of its unviable unit II (located at Barjora, West Bengal) in FY22 itself, the proceeds of which would be mainly utilized for its debt servicing.

The company’s revenue profile has improved consistently during 9MFY21 despite the COVID-19 pandemic. It reported a revenue of over Rs. 100 Cr and based on current order flows the management is expecting to surpass its FY21 revenue estimates. Company has been maintaining operating margins of 11-12%.

Sounds very interesting with a) being a sole manufacturer in india of certain products b) Pro Govt policies c) improving revenue & margins d) established leadership

Stock has run up 4x in 6 months but still bigger story seems to be ahead. Any thoughts ?

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Thanks for starting this thread.
Just adding few lines from my end.

  1. Currently the company has good tailwinds for their products. Sustained domestic demand for Xpro Biax Dielectric films with market share > 30% (balance imported); Strong global demand too. Company has announced intent and plans to create additional capacity to meet these demands.
  2. The exports are increasing. Raw material cost increases could be passed on, and together with
    improved product/customer-mix and improved value-addition strategy overall margins scaled-up.
  3. Continuing reduction in debt (including through pre-payment).
  4. The EV theme to drive the growth of Biax division.
  5. Xpro is one of the largest suppliers of Coex to almost every white good manufacturers.
  6. Co is leveraging PLI schemes and certain import restrictions.
  7. Recently the co has announced a bonus issue.

Q4 FY 22 investor ppt.pdf (3.8 MB)

Discl: Invested at lower levels. My views may be biased.

Business Analysis

XPRO India is mainly in the business of creating polymer based plastic films multiple locations & is a leading manufacturer in India of Coextruded Plastic Films (70% market share), thermoformed liners & specialty films (including dielectric films & special purpose BOPP Films)

Co has 2 main business divisions, Coax (Coextruded Plastic Sheets film) division, & Biax (Biaxial film) division.

Coex division

These type of plastic films are used to line inside of refrigerators. Co is the dominant player in this industry, enjoys a high market share in supplies to the Indian Refrigerator industry (70%).
this division of the co is a proxy to indian refrigerator industry growth. Any thrust on white goods manufacturing specifically fridge manufacturing with focus on localization is bound to benefit the co.
Refrigerator penetration in India is amongst the least amongst white good categories (<50%), with Euromonitor projecting 14% growth during CY20-25E.


We can see that most refrigerator brands are XPro customers.

While the primary (legacy) uses of coex division has been into refrigerator inner linings, according to company investor presentation coex films also find use in solar panels, other white goods & EVs (we need to better understand HOW).

The coex division forms 77% of revenues but 40% of profits which shows us that the higher profitability lies in the biax division with coex division having lower margins.

Source: Xpro India Ltd.: Why is this tiny smallcap buzzing on the bourses on Dalal Street? - The Economic Times

In fact, looking at the annual report, we find the tonnage & revenue split which tells us about the average realization.


1 lakh rupees per MT realization for coex division. Or. 100 Rs / KG realization.

For the biax division: 2.71 lakh / MT or 271 Rs / KG realization. This itself tells us how much higher value added Biax division is.

In Coex division, some future applications are:
Thermoforming capabilities extend to include Automotive interior and exterior trims (e.g. dash boards, door panels, floor panels, etc.); Furniture; Luggage Shells; Sanitary Products (e.g. Bath-tubs, Cabinets); Electrical/electronic housings (Light panels, street lamps and other light fittings); Industrial trays for material handling etc.

Biax division

These biaxial dielectric films are used as a critical component of capacitors of all sizes.

Essentially all capacitors consist of electrodes (cathode & anode made up of metals generally) separated by a dielectric medium. Depending on the type of dielectric medium, the capacitor is classified. As: electrolytic capacitors have an electrolyte for dielectric. Film capacitors are one of the
basic types of capacitors.
(To do: What is the industry trend amongst the ceramic, film & electrolytic capacitors. which are preferable in new age applications like solar panels, energy storage, EVs, BMS (battery management system), MCU (motor control unit))).

Xpro’s Biax Dielectric Films are specially designed polypropylene films manufactured by the stenter process on highly specialized equipment in controlled environmental & ultra clean room
conditions for a wide range of applications in the capacitors industry;
Wide Range of products including plain/ smooth films modified for good metallization with Al, Zn or Alloy and winding for normal and high temperature applications, High temperature Super grade, hazy /rough and semi rough films. These Films are available in thickness range of 3µ to15µ (lower thickness
down to 2µ under development) currently
Dielectric films are ideally suited for high performance capacitors, both for normal and high temperature applications, high temperature super grade for AC aging and ripple current condition at elevated temperature, high roughness films for oil impregnated high voltage application capacitors and semi rough films for metallisation and oil impregnation for capacitors for locomotive applications.

The interesting thing is that Xpro is the only manufacturer of these dielectric films in India with 30% market share. 70% of the market consists of imports & xpro is able to gain market share against imports.

The key thing to notice here is a minor detail buried deep in the investor presentations:

These IATF 16949:2016 are difficult to get & generally only required when a co has to become tier-K supplier to Auto OEMs. In fact this was one key trigger for some investors to study shivalik bimetals. This certification shows that Xpro is serious about putting their biax films into capacitors which go into EV. Thus, while this market might be small, it can be expected to grow rapidly with EV growth of 70%.

Key to do: Find out which specific components in EV require film capacitors, substitution threat/risk, value per EV & project how large this market can be in 2025 or 2030.

For a plastic film maker to get IATF certification should itself be a trigger for us to study it more.

Industry structure/Barriers to entry

What we know currently: XPro is only manufacturer in India. Has 30% market share. 70% import. Can easily invert. In addition they are already exporting to Germany & US. One of largest American customers is STEINERFILM INC. Xpro is exporting 20 MT per month to this firm right now (data from importgenius, details here)

320 MT runrate. Did 3100 MT last year. So significant export volumes with 1 customer.

In terms of barriers to entry, we know of a few things:

  1. This requires expensive german machines. There is a small capital barrier to entry.
  2. It requires expertise to operate the machines. Thus there is a learning curve barrier to entry as well.

    Here is a screenshot from a paper on biaxial orientation showing us that the tetner process to manufactur biaxially oriented films are difficult to manufacture: Biaxial Orientation - an overview | ScienceDirect Topics
  3. The IATF certification itself acts as a barrier to entry. It takes many years to get then lot of due diligence, constant testing, quality control to maintain the certification.
  4. In general in Auto OEM space, first mover advantage is a huge barrier to entry. Specially for critical application components, auto ancillaries are not very eager to shift or move their suppliers easily because the testing & qualification process is rigorous, time consuming & acts as a barrier to entry. See shivalik bimetals, see racl, see tatva chintan, all of them demonstrate in one way or another how hard it is to break into auto OEM supply chains. The EV is only as robust as the weakest component in it. If the plastic film inside the capacitor inside the MCU breaks or gives in, it causes a car that OEM would have promised 10 years of reliability to fail soon. This is why an OEM or tier-K would not change its venders just because of pricing.

Key todo: Understand the technical expertise or learning curve moat better through the concall to be held on friday

Jindal poly has been talking about dielectric films since 2018: https://www.newprojectstracker.com/iem/iem-projects-by-jindal-poly-films-ltd-jb26002

Have they been able to? At least i have not been able to find any product to do with capacitor films or dielectric films on their website:


No mention of dielectric or capacitor films. No mention in annual report either:

^ Have a look for yourself
We need to spend more time to understand whether jindal has been able to crack dielectric films or not. And if not, why not. And that itself would indicate the extent or depth of the moat.

Clearly they are working on it:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/sameer-gite-54b72619/?originalSubdomain=in

Tailwinds

Coex division can grow at 10-15% due to deeper penetration of white goods like refrigerators. If white goods manufacturing (PLI for electronics) & exports out of india pick up, rate of growth can accelerate.

Key todo: Understand plans of various cos to export refrigerators made in india.

The biax division has stronger tailwinds. Dielectric films going into capacitors can be a secular trend for many years to come depending on execution of electronics PLI:
https://www.meity.gov.in/esdm/pli
https://www.meity.gov.in/esdm/SPECS


If semicon manufacturing picks up could be very interesting.

We already know that xpro has taken IATF certification so they intend to provide to capacitor makers who intend to provide to EVs. Component per vehicle is what we need to figure out. Growth rates here would be easily north of 50% for at least 1 decade. The concentrated industry structure helps us take advantage of the tailwinds.

Capital efficiency & Return ratios

Co has maintained great & improving return ratios. With much higher margins in biax division, these return ratios can easily improve even from here as value added biax part changes in product mix. Co has also managed to grow its operating cashflows YoY while reducing debt both of which are encouraging signs.

Risks

  1. At 32 times earnings the valuations dont provide tremendous comfort. Having said that depending on exact nature of industry structure, the pace of execution (do their biax films already make it to EVs in india?), i am happy to pay up for a secular growth sunrise company.
  2. Co will do 1st ever concall on Friday 10 june. Generally when cos start opening up it is not to give any bad news. We must take whatever info they share, claims they make around competitive advantages with a skeptical mindset & do our own due diligence to verify cos claims rather than relying on them blindly.
  3. Stock has run up quite a lot in last 2 years, there can probabilistically be instances of profit booking, forced selling etc depressing returns testing patience at least for a few years.
  4. If Jindal poly cracks capacitor films, this goes from being a monopoly to duopoly. I am less comfortable owning a large position in a duopoly than monopoly. COmpetitive intensity heating up is 1 key risk.
  5. Liquidity in stock is limited: 3000 stocks traded per day. This poses its own risks with regard to entry & exit.
  6. if electronics manufacturing ecosystem does not take off, it poses an IRR risk depending on entry valuations.
  7. Need to figure out how sustainable the realisations are. Export realisation have gone up in recent past possibly due to electronic component shortage.

Disc: Have a small position, studying eagerly, looking forward to 10 june concall.

Link to register for concall:

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Let us analyze the clients of Xpro to better understand end uses & usage.

Powercap

Website:
https://powercap.in/clientele.html

Clients:

Largest clients: Power sector, petrochem & refineries, engineering cos like siemens, ABB, L&T.

Products: Small, medium & large capacitors :


One can clearly visualize large capacitors going into power transmission & storage.

Tibcon Capacitors

Website:


Claims to have best capacitors In india. Some of them are clear applications for EVs, air conditioners.

Motor start capacitors are one of the innovative product they claim to have.
The motor start capacitors are dielectric film based capacitors & might something which is used in EV:

Jimcap

Website:
http://www.jimcapelectronics.com/
Products:
Capacitors for motors, fans, lights


CE approval from INTERTEK ETL SEMKO for
Motor Run Capacitors (EN/IEC 60252-1)
Motor Start Capacitors (EN/IEC 60252-2)

Steinerfilms

Website: https://www.steinerfilm.com/
Wherever innovative film capacitors are in use, Steiner is the worldwide leading manufacturer of high quality metallized capacitor grade films of BOPP, PET, PPS, PEN, Paper and other dielectrics with single or double-sided metallization in high-vacuum technology and roll configuration.

Standard capacitors

Website:

Globe Capacitors

Globe Capacitors Limited is the largest producer of MPP film AC motor capacitors in India. With over four decades of expertise, our production has grown from 1 million capacitors in 1978 to 75 million capacitors in 2022.

Globe Capacitors has all the international approvals in terms of performance and safety of its products.

With an established presence in the sector, GCL products are widely used in household appliances in India, United States, Europe, Middle East, Far East and South America.

Manufacturing equipment is imported from Germany, Korea, China and Japan. Our testing lab is recognized for TMP (Test at manufacturing premises) by TUV Rheinland.

All kinds of motor run & motor start capacitors.

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Here are the open questions that need to be nailed down in order to develop higher conviction in investment thesis imo. The first ever concall is on Friday. I will try to join & ask these questions. Everyone else who is interested should also try to join & ask these questions imo

  1. Given that the bopp industry in india is fairly competitive with many companies working on bopp film technology, how has xpro managed to be the sole manufacturer of dielectric films in india ? Why haven’t our competitors been able to manufacture biax dielectric films? What are the barriers to entry?
  2. In what specific ways are film based capacitors used in new age technologies like EV & solar & energy storage ? What is the current total addressable market based on these new age technologies & what is the expected growth rate for the market for capacitor films?
  3. Our clients like timcon, globe capacitors do provide capacitors but they don’t seem to have IATF 13494 CERTIFICATION. how then would we supply capacitor into an EV without our client having IATF certification?
  4. Jindal poly films has been trying to make capacitor films since 2018. What is the probability of them succeeding & thus increased competitive intensity putting downward pressure on our realisations & our margins
  5. What is our current biax capacities, our biax capacity utilisation, our coex capacity, coex capacity utilisation, and our current planned & under execution capacity expansion in both divisions?
  6. How much content per ev (2w & 4w separately) can we hope to get in a blue sky scenario?

Would request all interested investors to please.join the concall & ask these or other questions.
If i have missed out on some important questions please do tell & I will try to address it

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Have regd for the concall. Adding on -1) While there is an aspiration to increase the mkt share from the current 30% levels, is there a threat from imports?

Type of capacitors

One of the key trends worth understanding is ceramic vs film / box capacitors vs electrolytic capacitors. Which are used where, why & which ones are likely to be used in EVs & other newage tech ?

This reddit has an interesting comparison of film vs ceramic capacitors.

There are a few things to deal with in capacitors:

  1. Tolerance is the variation to either side of the stated value you can expect the component to measure. Low tolerance is usually good for reproducing a desired effect. Sometimes this doesn’t matter for the sound of the pedal, especially if the cap is very large or very small or connected to a potentiometer or something like that. Box caps (poly film) tend to be 5%. Cheap ceramic caps tend to be 20%.
  2. Size matters. Ceramic caps come in small packages for very small (pF) values – box caps don’t usually go below 1nF. You can get some types of film caps in pF values, like the Panasonic ECQ-V series, but they are more expensive. Ceramic caps become prohibitively large as the value of the capacitor increases – a 100nF ceramic cap might be too big to fit on the circuit board.
  3. Weird stuff. Ceramic capacitors experience a lot of drift – higher voltages, even below the capacitor’s stated voltage value, might cause the capacitance to change. Ceramic caps can become piezo microphonic – meaning, they can turn into little microphones for vibrations in the pedal. That can be very annoying and amplify things like the mechanical action of a footswitch.

Overall it looks like the trend is towards film caps & one can expect film caps to be the pervasive tech used in most applications. Definitely do need to read other links to confirm the knowledge set here.

The next link which has useful info is following:
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.avx.com/docs/techinfo/EvolutionPowerVehicles.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwjy5s3H6574AhVGUGwGHd24C8MQFnoECCEQAQ&usg=AOvVaw1mFPilWCMJvnzz61puO0O6

EvolutionPowerVehicles.pdf (227.0 KB)

Metallised film has become the capacitor technology of choice for electric vehicle and other medium and high power applications. There are several reasons for this.

One major advantage is the ability of film capacitors to overcome internal defects. The latest dielectric films used for DC filter capacitors are coated with a very thin metallic layer. In the case of any defect, the metal evaporates and therefore isolates or fuses the defect, effectively self-healing the capacitor. The total capacitance is divided into elementary cells (sometimes several million) protected by fuse gate. If there is a weak point, the particular cell where the weak point is located will be insulated by fuses blowing up. Capacitance decreases as function of the ratio between elementary cell surface and total surface of capacitor, so there is no complete failure and no short circuit, only a minimal capacitance decrease which can be useful as a measure of ageing.

Metallised film capacitors also offer significant space savings when compared to devices manufactured using other technologies - such as aluminium electrolytic - if high RMS current handling is a requirement.

Why it makes sense to use film capacitors rather than other types :

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I know this question is meant for the management so please don’t mnd if i take a crack at it :slight_smile:
Most likely their films are used in capacitors that smooth out DC voltage spikes and prevent damage. it’s unlikely that BOPP dielectric capacitors are being used as an auxiliary source of charge like supercapacitors or other dielectric capacitors because they can’t handle high temperatures(>150 C) and have low energy storage density. This can be improved to some extent using some metals/nanofillers so it would be helpful to know what else goes in making their BOPP films. i know the presentation says their films can stand high temperatures but a precise number will help us understand it’s limitations and use cases.

The number one risk imo is technological obsolescence. BOPP is replacing electrolytic capacitors and tomorrow Something might replace BOPP. Theres a lot happening to make capacitors smaller and more efficient

PS: above information is almost 8 months old. I ll edit/delete this post if whats revealed in the concall is different from what i know. Unfortunately won’t be able to attend it.

Disc: Invested

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what is important for us to pin down are the exact use cases & the TAM for those use-cases. Since you are invested any idea what the value per ev exists for DC voltage spike capacitors?
Any idea which cos are already into making such capacitors in India and are they being supplied by Xpro?

please do share any other info you might have on Xpro (asking since you are already invested).

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Hello all,
Attached is a link that covers the fundamentals of films capacitors and their application for EVs. They are primarily used for EV inverters.

What is an EV inverter?
https://lightningemotors.com/whats-an-inverter/

As a young investor, could y’all please help me with my following questions?

  1. I am unable to find any EV inverter manufacturers in India. So is Tata and all other auto players engaged in EV segment, manufacturing the EV inverter in-house?
  2. I am a bit iffy on the mgmts annual report 2022 presentation and I do find promoter shares pledged from 2020-22, with promoter holding ~50%. Does this advise caution?
  3. Could anyone share the revenue breakdown from the Biax and Coex divisions?

Thanks.

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THis could be a fairly big boost to local fridge manufacturing

I looked up their customers and it was hard for me to figure out what goes where so i understood the science as best as i could. We know that capacitor are broadly used to smooth out voltage spikes/reduce interference/store electric charge. now due to their low energy storage density you cant use bopp capacitors in circuits where small capacitors that hold a lot of charge are needed(e.g.- electric powertrain, braking, battery management) Plus these subsystem generate a lot of heat and bopp films don’t do very well at high temperatures.
No idea about TAM. My investment thesis was based on Biax replacing electrolytic caps in EV and solar.EVs need more capacitors than ICE vehicles. you have inverter, converter, battery management system, and so other electronic subsystems. You have a high voltage power source (battery) which transfers energy to both high and low voltage systems which means you need capacitors that can handle high voltage. Plus they need to withstand high temperature, vibration and need to last long.
For the longest time multi ceramic, metallic film and electrolytic capacitors were used in all cars. You can’t use film where ceramic is required unless you solve the temperature problem. however electrolytic capacitors are being replaced by film and ceramic. Film capacitors with some tweaks can work at similar temp as electrolytic and you don’t have to worry about corrosion,self heating or leakage due vibration. basically they are more reliable than electrolytic cap

some questions that i don’t have answers to- just like BOPP even ceramic(with some tweaks) can be used instead of electrolytic caps. so what happens if crude prices stay elevated? is the cost of Biax in overall cost of capacitors big enough to matter?
Sorry if I couldn’t be more useful. I often take small speculative bets in such interesting stories Even if i don’t have all the answers as long as valuations are favourable.

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Notes

  1. Diversified Polymers processing. Corporate demerger in 1998 resulted in Xpro india. Extrusion 38 years experienced. Family led professionally managed co from birla family.
  2. Greater noida, durgapur WB
  3. Xpro: Extrusion process: XPro. 2 verticals named on technical processes: biaxially oriented, coextrusion process.
  4. Thermoforming capabilities
  5. Coex: Coextruded sheets & liners for consumer durables: white goods. Greater noida, ranjangaon in MH. Strategic proximity to major fridge manufacturing. Also manufacture coextruded films for disposable diapers. Evolved into dominant player. Leading indian & MNC cos as clients. Indian fridge industry growing well. Localisation is a tailwind. PLI will also give boost. Policy of domestic manufacturing helps. Leverage relationship to expand product PF under coex.
  6. Biax: Manufactures dielectric capacitor films. 4000 T, barjora WB. Only manufacturer of dielectric films in India. 32-33% Market share. Rest imported. Capacitors are important in transmission, distribution, consumer goods, cars, electrical equipment. With a changing landscape demand for capacitors is automatically growing significantly. Sunrise applications like EV segments. Multiple applications in Power control units, high intensity xenon lamps, driver information & entertainment systems, airbags, breaking systems. In any capacitor, 50-60% of total cost is the dielectric film. Critical to capacitor’s existence.
  7. Company announced new capex: new line for dielectric films. 1st phase would double capacity at barjora. To be followed by 2nd phase either in barjora or somewhere else. Expand our advantages in this segment. Supplying state of art dielectric products. Technical expertise allows developing new range of films. Xpro ha 1st mover advantage in in dielectric films. GOvt has been nurturing ecosystem. We were hit by classic inverted duty structure. We competed against 0 duty imports. Playing field today is far more level.
  8. On export front: already exporting dielectric films to germany & USA/ Only few such cos in the world. Our products are well recognized globally. with expanded capacity we will target global market with good products.
  9. 143 cr rev. 148 cr in Q4FY21. 3.2% degrowth YoY. Our product mix is diverse & dynamic. RM increases will be recovered through pass through strategy
  10. Biax division 24% growth in Q4 YoY. Continue to see sustained demand.
  11. Coex demand moderated due to geopolitical & lockdowns in china. COnsumer durable sector was hit overall. 12% in Q degrowth YoY.
  12. Export during Q: 70% growth YoY. 5cr in Q4.
  13. 17.2 cr EBITDA was slightly higher than EBITDA in Q421. Higher ebitda margin: 12.1%. 11.9% last year.
  14. Biax: 42% growth. Coex segment: 18% growth. Export increased 2.5x. 22.6cr exports in FY22.
  15. 45cr debt reduction
  16. Competitive intensity: Biax: division: packaging grade BOPP are there, but no dielectric film manufacturer are not there. Process parameters, handling system, typical capacity sizes, machines are different. Polypropylene compares a number of raw materials. The polymerization process are different. Barriers to entry: capital is major barrier. Skills, technology, process, know how, recipes, appropriate consolidation of these elements. These equipment need technical parameters need to be set. Time it takes to launch successful capacitor films is high. Very few manufacturers in india. Xpro is among top 5 in the world.
  17. Barriers to entry: Coex: customer relationship through development of products together, delivering products with high success. Developed relationships & it has stood through the test of time.
  18. Testing, developing takes long. Rigorous testing. Disruptive testing. Capacitor itself once approved has to go to automotive. Couple of years or more to make these films. Commercial producers not very amenable to stopping production so trial itself becomes lower priority.
  19. Capex: design, Advance payment has been done, physical work will begin after the monsoon season. 2-4 years due to long equipment delivery period.
  20. EBITDA margins higher in biax.
  21. Capacity utilization: Biax 100%+. We are sharpening our abilities. Were operating at 100% in last year as well.
  22. Thinner films, less capacity utilization.
  23. Routine expansions happen every year in coex division.
  24. Biax division 2 more lines will, biax 3x in 4-5 years. Coex division in line with industry
  25. RM: crude derivative. In plastics polymers business, we have adopted a pass through pricing policy. Barring timing issues, we are insulated so not experiencing pricing pressures. Small increases we do in weeks, massive increases in days. Lag for the pass through.
  26. Cyclicality of biz: capacitor film business is not cyclical. Over last 3-4 years there has been gradual increase in profitability. Correction of inverted duty structure done by government by GOI. After that it took us a couple of years to pull ourselves out of it. Sustainable margins. <⅓ of market. India needs 4 plants like us without even looking at sunrise sectors.
  27. ROCE target is one major one for co. Consistent improvement in operating performance. Both biz ROCE > 20%.
  28. 340/kg for biax, 100/kg for coex division realisation. Competitively sensitive. Realization increase is due to higher value added mix. Polymer prices going up.
  29. Export dielectric division:
  30. Competitive advantage: There is a skill to it. Its very specialized. GLobally there are not very many players. Electricity in its current form cannot be distributed or consumed without capacitors.

Disc: small investment

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Just an update that, Directors are buying at Rs. 1220. last week

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Hi all,

Please find some relevant links on competition:

India represents the highest market value share in the South Asia plastic dielectric films market

Another article on competitive landscape in the dielectric market:

The attached image shows how BOPP dielectric films are different from other BOPP products.