Based on my discussion with a major pump manufacturer based out of Ahmedabad, I understand that the RM prices had increased from April till end of September and are significantly down now. The prices have more or less been stagnant since early October and majority manufacturers have not changed the pricing yet. I believe products division should perform well in Q-3 and the co. should be back on track on gross level.
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The Promoters of WPIL have bought 6518 shares from the open market in the last couple of days.
At the AGM the CMD had also talked about NSE listing. The Co. has, I believe, initiated the process of NSE listing. I also understand that the Co. is in the process of engaging the services of an Investor relations firm to help investors be better informed about the developments in the Co.
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WPIL 's Q3 numbers were nothing short of spectacular & the stock is up 35% in two days! Not without reason! Sales have more than doubled & have crossed 500 crs, with operating margins coming in at about 21%.
The Media release attached below, that came along with the results made for very interesting reading as it gave some insights into the nature / scope of work of its subsidiaries across the globe. With the Co. now opening up & engaging with its investors / shareholders by giving a quarterly media release & appointing Valorem Advisors, for its Investor relations, it will not be long before the investing community appreciates how under valued it is, despite the recent run up. Even if the market cap were to double from here (currently 1,580 crs), given its high operating margins, given that it is an Indian multi national with its various subsidiaries across the globe, being as profitable if not more than its domestic operations, the Co would still be comparable to its domestic peers in terms of its valuation.
The table below (taken from Screener.in) would throw more light on the valuation vis a vis its peers.
Peer comparison
Sector: Capital Goods-Non Electrical Equipment Industry: Pumps
| S.No. | Name | CMP Rs. | P/E | Mar Cap Rs.Cr. | Div Yld % | NP Qtr Rs.Cr. | Qtr Profit Var % | Sales Qtr Rs.Cr. | Qtr Sales Var % | ROCE % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | KSB | 1852.55 | 38.80 | 6448.73 | 0.67 | 39.00 | 0.26 | 431.30 | 17.17 | 21.00 |
| 2. | Kirl. Brothers | 393.40 | 16.23 | 3123.95 | 0.76 | 88.90 | 323.19 | 957.50 | 32.01 | 11.02 |
| 3. | WPIL | 1618.10 | 9.46 | 1580.41 | 0.62 | 83.71 | 431.02 | 507.16 | 105.69 | 20.28 |
| 4. | Roto Pumps | 570.55 | 30.96 | 895.98 | 0.50 | 9.25 | 12.70 | 57.21 | 21.57 | 30.03 |
| 5. | Shakti Pumps | 412.50 | 17.29 | 758.18 | 0.48 | 11.25 | -23.94 | 314.22 | 16.97 | 21.33 |
| 6. | Adarsh Plant | 16.65 | 16.50 | 0.00 | 0.06 | -57.14 | 5.11 | 44.35 | 4.32 | |
| Median: 5 Co. | 570.55 | 17.29 | 1580.41 | 0.62 | 39.0 | 12.7 | 431.3 | 21.57 | 21.0 |
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Thanks to @rcinvestor999 and @RajeevJ for regular insights on recent developments.
A quick recap of past Order Book and following year revenue pattern (note it is only approximation to see trend and sourced from rating report etc)
- Dec 20 2021 order book was 1900 cr and CY 21 revenue was 1200 cr at 17% revenue
- Dec 21 orderbook was 2500 cr, CY 22 revenue is 1650 cr at 18%,
- Dec 22 order book is 3350 cr, CY 23 revenue likely to be …2400-2500 cr around 20% margins. (margins can be higher as well with operating leverage and RM stability)
Potential - current mkt cap is below 1800 cr. 10+ year median EV/EBDITA is 7, potential mkt cap of 3500 cr+ if above pattern pays out as base case, much stronger balance sheet than earlier as well.
Some points that stand out are
- as @RajeevJ pointed out this being a case of Indian MNC pedigree organization
- Strong balance sheet, return ratio and good Cash flow,
- Promoter increased stake over last many qtrs + MF holdings leaves less float in mkt
- Have taken out ATH on charts and looking in strong momentum
- Part of global infra spend story (India + strong global footprint enabling broader participation e.g. Nuclear energy spends in France)
- Investor communication - Valorem Advisors has been appointed as IR and they do have a good track record, quite important aspect in mkt perception
- Sector tailwinds - Water EPC - Many peers in India have also reported strong order win/book - KEC, kalpataru etc. Reassuring of collective sector demand visibility.
Stock has run up post Q3 results, however story might be just getting started and has potential of growth + some re-rating.
Invested
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Thank you @Dev_S.
Just brining in a technical chart perspective:
Quarterly chart of Wpil, strong Momemtum and breakout seen. It’s respected a multi year channel as well. I think we may be looking at a channel top touch sometime in the next few years.
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Company received 4 Letter of Acceptance (LOA) from Madhya Pradesh Jal Nigam Maryadit for a total value of ₹1225 Crores to be completed in 24 month period.
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Isn’t it a high time that WPIL gets re-rated since it’s P/B is at 2.5 times and no stock bonuses/splits/right issues in these many years. All ratios seem to point towards an under-valued company raring to get correctly valued.They also have MIT as an institutional investor ,which makes it a privileged investee company.
they had MIT as a privileged investor in last two years. Markets are supreme they award those who wait patiently
disclosure no investment and not tracking except technically
The Key Risk is Retention Money of 10-15%. Sometimes getting the release of these is painful and affects the cash flows.
Disc : No Exposure
Almost no data available about the management vision, Capex, revenue mix and also their employee cost plays a crucial role into OPM , seems directly affecting
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First time investor presentation :).
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