hello sir , happy holi
is this time to be greedy or pain is more still ? is there any checklist in this scenerio. thnks sir for valuing in new learner investor.
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Any idea why irctc going down with LC…is it kind of opportunity now to accumulate
vivekji how are u approaching this mkt?
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Stay invested with own funds in quality stocks .No kachra stocks. ,Only optimists make money,
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optimist with opportunist right sir?
Hi Vivek,
Do you still hold SFL?
What are your view now?
DISC - I am holding SFL for more than a year and it is 15% of my PF right now
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@Vivek_6954: Would be great if you can update what you have been upto in this market crash.
Have sold any holdings?
What you have been nibbling at?
What is screaming buy?
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No booked profit in SFL . Indian market has become more apt for a trading market where buy n hold bulls have been butchered.
Better to go with trends and move to a sector where tailwinds are still strong. Speciality chemical Agrochem and Pharma now fit the bill.
Let this Covid crisis pass away & till then better to stay in some cash as well.
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Hi Vivek,
Have been following your thread and views with interest since few days now. Kudos on all the IPO picks.
Keen to know your views on pharma stocks that you are considering in this time . While FDA regulations seem to have eased up a bit and are making many firms mouth watering to enter , same sort of entry during late 2015 was a complete value derosion with US suddenly becoming more stringent
Yes Pharma sector seem to be back in the vogue may be due too Corona crisis worldover has reemphasized its importance as jaan h to jahan hai
Also the price erosion in US mkt was anyway reducing from v high % to low single digit % before covid crisis due to consolidation in sector n reducing competitive intensity. This covid crisis n huge publicity has led to shortage of old molecules like HCQ Azithromycin Famotidine and large no of others molecules as well . But best benfits wud accrue to players who are backward integrated with APIs as well.
India also has advantage in batch mode prodn vs continuous production of say APIS in China .Each batch has to be verified requiring qualified chemistry manpower which is abundantly available at cheap price.
EPS & PE should increase for pharma which has already run a lot
So better buy quality stocks with good promoters Moat opp size ROCE good balancesheet on dips in sectors with tailwinds.
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Nice filters. These characteristics would give winners in many sectors, not only pharma. Thanks
Reading and rereadings ones gist of learnings are always an useful exercise.
Most of the learnings highlighted in my investment journey remains relevant and useful specially in todays torrid times. helps one to control ones emotions.
Another useful article containing gist of learnings of several experienced investors which always remains relevant specially during current critical times and dom day scenario.
Only the optimists make money and learn from experience and mistakes of others.
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One needs to move to a sector with tailwinds from an under performing sector .Investing in cos with good promoter quality with tailwinds in sector leading to good ROCE CAGR and finding Moat if any is investing all about.
Finding about promoter quality is an essential one time exercise but tracking the sector shud be a constant exercise.
I have seen it several times switching from pharma sector in 2015 to first MFI sector and from MFI in Nov 16 DM time to NBFC & wealth mgmt firms , preserved and created more wealth.
Similarly when tailwinds in Shrimp feed sector reduced due to increasing soya prices and falling shrimp prices in 2018 helped in selling Avanti feeds which then was my top holding upto 20-25% of my PF .I had entered in Feb 2014 tks to great thread on VP on Avanti where many VPers including me were constantly tracking & contributing & remained invested till tailwinds were there.
I was late in understanding the IL&FS impact in Sep 18 and as such was late in selling and big paper wealth was destroyed.Edelweiss & othe NBFCs. tailwinds went suddenly due to this unprecedented black swan event. More you dithered more wealth was lost. Edel now 30 rs from 340 peak price in 2018. Ultimately I sold Edel in 170-180 price range.One shud sell & switch to a better performing stock once u r sure about headwinds appearing for a sector.
Financials again big headwinds appeared due to another black swan Covid crisis in Feb March 20. Generally I follow the axim when in doubt first sell 30% and then keep selling on downside if price action is disconcerting due to covid or other headwinds.Hence exited most financials in first half of March 20.
Some sectors like chemical agrochem and related sector where tailwinds are still there I aM continuing to hold for last few years.
SBI Card another mistake buying at peak seeing GMP and late in selling. But switching first by selling 30% in 720 range and then more at 600 into better performing pharma telecom & gold loan cos where tailwinds are there helps in recouping losses.
Pharma seems a promising sector at present. Enclosed is an interview of Aditya Khemka of DSP Pharma fund for better understanding of sector & learn how strong & sustainable are the tailwinds.
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Good to know you had been so ajile in your entry and exits. Over last decade, how much cagr has this resulted in? Thanks
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Its been really a topsy turvy world specially since Feb 20.
Fall in March 20 was huge & unprecedented. PF has went down 16-18% from All Time High in Feb 20. Moving to cash in March 20 & some switching helped.
Mine X of 2012 is now around 10 X as on date.
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Thanks for sharing the details, it is really nice to know the results along with strategy. Appreciate your sharing and congratulations for a great investment journey!
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A good interview of Samir Arora who talks lot of sense. One shud be in a wait n watch mode.
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Thanks for sharing your experience Vivek, more than success stories, experiences provide us more enlightenment.
In your above approach, you might need to constantly track the industry dynamics in day to day basis and quartely concall and mgt ppt may not be enough…can you please give some tips on how you track the industry, company related news. This will.be help ful for us to track
Best wealth is created when ROCE & CAGR both are good under an ethical promoter with good execution track record . We also need to find if the co has some entry barriers or moat.
If the above combination is there then one needs to stay put. Ofcourse black swan events like DM Covid one is difficult to predict.But then one needs to move fast if such events happen fully understanding the consequences. Technicals help here.If 200 DMA is broken like 4000 for BF,400 for Bandhan or stock falls 30% from top.
most passionate investors do track the diff sectors thru papers new sites etc.
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