My highlevel notes and calculations based on Management guidance and some baseline assumptions post the H1 con-call is as below,
Management gave these guidance numbers,
• Uganda: 40% ( margin stable ±2%)
• India (Navi + Nashik): 17.5% midpoint of guided 15–20% for first-year operations
• Uganda target ARPOB = ₹55k–₹60k
• India initial ARPOB = ₹27k–₹28k for Navi Mumbai
• Nashik similar ARPOB ₹25k–₹28k
• Uganda = 120 beds
• Navi Mumbai = 52 beds
• Nashik = 200 beds
Not considered for working out the numbers ,
• Tanzania 20-bed centre
• Tanzania 100-bed tertiary acquisition
• Consultancy vertical beds/revenues
All revenues in Cr.
| Region | Hospital | Beds | ARPOB (₹/day) | Revenue FY26 | Revenue FY27 | Revenue FY28 | EBITDA FY26 | EBITDA FY27 | EBITDA FY28 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Africa | Uganda – UMC | 120 | 55,000–60,000 | 126 | 126 | 132 | 50.4 (40%) | 50.4 (40%) | 52.8 (40%) |
| India | Navi Mumbai | 52 | 27,000–28,000 | — | 30 | 33 | — | 5.25 (17.5%) | 5.7 (17.5%) |
| India | Nashik | 200 | 25,000–28,000 | — | 100 | 110 | — | 17.5 (17.5%) | 19.25 (17.5%) |
| TOTAL | — | 372 | — | 140 | 251 | 275 | 50.4 | 73.15 | 77.75 |
The Sector trades at 30-40 EV/EBIDTA.
At 20 X EV EBIDTA FY28 it works out to around 1400 Cr EV (market cap +debt) at 70Cr edbidta.
Need to see future fund raise and debt plan. Looks undervalued to me at this price too post the run up.
PS: Invested with a small allocation recently. Contemplating adding more on dips.