CHECK cash flow. revenue for half year is 66 cr and trade receivable increased from 53 cr to 112 cr . any idea about it ?
My highlevel notes and calculations based on Management guidance and some baseline assumptions post the H1 con-call is as below,
Management gave these guidance numbers,
• Uganda: 40% (your choice; transcript says mature margin stable ±2%)
• India (Navi + Nashik): 17.5% midpoint of guided 15–20% for first-year operations
• Uganda target ARPOB = ₹55k–₹60k
• India initial ARPOB = ₹27k–₹28k for Navi Mumbai
• Nashik similar ARPOB ₹25k–₹28k
• Uganda = 120 beds
• Navi Mumbai = 52 beds
• Nashik = 200 beds
Not considered for working out the numbers ,
• Tanzania 20-bed centre
• Tanzania 100-bed tertiary acquisition
• Consultancy vertical beds/revenues
All revenues in Cr.
| Region | Hospital | Beds | ARPOB (₹/day) | Revenue FY26 | Revenue FY27 | Revenue FY28 | EBITDA FY26 | EBITDA FY27 | EBITDA FY28 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Africa | Uganda – UMC | 120 | 55,000–60,000 | 126 | 126 | 132 | 50.4 (40%) | 50.4 (40%) | 52.8 (40%) |
| India | Navi Mumbai | 52 | 27,000–28,000 | — | 30 | 33 | — | 5.25 (17.5%) | 5.7 (17.5%) |
| India | Nashik | 200 | 25,000–28,000 | — | 100 | 110 | — | 17.5 (17.5%) | 19.25 (17.5%) |
| TOTAL | — | 372 | — | 140 | 251 | 275 | 50.4 | 73.15 | 77.75 |
The Sector trades at 30-40 EV/EBIDTA.
At 20 X EV EBIDTA FY28 it works out to around 1400 Cr EV (market cap +debt) at 70Cr edbidta.
Need to see future fund raise and debt plan. Looks undervalued to me at this price too post the run up.
PS: Invested with a small allocation recently. Contemplating adding more on dips.
8 Likes
H1FY26:
• Looking ahead, with 120 operational beds and multiple projects progressing well, we remain on track to achieve 350-400 operational beds by FY26 and scale towards the targeted 1,000 beds over the next two years.
• As on September 30, 2025, the Ugandan unit of the Group has repaid its outstanding loans and is now a debt-free entity, allowing it financial agility to expand aggressively in the coming years.
•
CONCALL NOTES:
• UGANDA OPERATIONS: The expansion of capacity, addition of new clinics, and strong demand across specialties, including orthopedics, spine, IVF, among others, supported healthy traction in Uganda for the first half. Our IVF and fertility services in Uganda also continue to gain scale, reinforcing our commitment to developing clinical depth in high-demand super-specialty areas.
We continue to add super specialty services and new clinics in Uganda.
o TRADE RECEIVABLES: The debtors also, the largest proportion is from the Ugandan entity. Of these 112 crores, a major proportion of the debtors is the Uganda People’s Defense Forces, which is the Ministry of Defense, Uganda, for which we have been the preferred hospital and healthcare partner over the years.
So, of the INR112 crores, INR82.08 crores is the outstanding to be received from the Ugandan military or the Ministry of Defense. Now, over the last few years, three to four years that we have been catering to them with respect to the healthcare services, there has never been a challenge with respect to under-recovery or the risk of bad debt because it is eventually the Government of Uganda, which is the payer. And their cycle for payment is between about nine months to 12, 13 months. But the payments come in that cyclical manner over the years. So, even right now, as we speak, the payments till September 2024 are all clear, and we are expecting payments for the next two, three months to be received before the end of December. And that is the cycle that they have followed, because of which we have got these debtors.
RECEIVABLES TO COME DOWN: Uganda in all probability will start coming down as we move forward to specific reasons. We are adding super specialties which are generating a lot of cash patients out there.
For example, IVF. IVF is not extended on credit basis. Insurance is not covering it. So, whatever patients we get, we are getting it in terms of cash patients.
Second is the Ministry of Defense itself is changing the way it pays. So, earlier it used to make a small payment every quarter with a significant bonus payment, which would come at the end of their financial year, which was at the end of June every year.
Starting with this financial year at their end, which is effective from 1st of July this year, they are moving towards making significantly larger payments on a quarterly basis and not waiting it out till the end of the financial year for a bonus. We’ve seen that over the last two quarters, where on a comparative basis for last year, if we had received about INR5 odd crores, this year we’ve already received about INR18 crores to INR20 crores from them. So, in that perspective, if that trend continues, then that will also contribute to lowering down the receivable days when it comes to Uganda.
o 10 YEAR TAX BREAK IN UGANDA OPERATIONS: The reason why the taxation remains quite low is that effective 1st of July 2024, the company received an income tax holiday for a period of 10 years for its Uganda business. And because of this, the income tax that we need to pay is not there anymore for Uganda, which is the most profitable unit for now. So, that results in a significant tax saving for the company and the group on a consolidated basis.
But as we go forward, definitely the tax amount will start creeping up as other business units start becoming profitable because we do not have a tax break or a tax holiday in India or at the moment for any other unit in Africa, which is in Tanzania. So, other than Uganda, there is no tax holiday. But yes, right now, Uganda contributes majorly to the top line and we have got a 10-year tax holiday effective 1st of July 2024 to 30th of June 2034. So, that benefit will continue to be there for the coming nine years also.
OPERATIONAL METRICS: Occupancy in H1 was roughly around 72% (vs 62.5% last H1). Average revenue per occupied bed per day was 40,000 + (vs 24-25000 last year)
Reason for big jump in ARPOB: Addition of certain super specialties, addition of ICU beds. So, what we did was on an absolute number, we have not really added beds, they remain at 120. We have reconfigured some of the beds internally and expanded the ICU services. So, one, ICU because they bill more. Second was addition of super specialties like IVF since January, which actually took a traction post-April. And third was we have increased the frequency of our Indian doctors flying into Uganda to do surgical camps. So, we have had a spine surgeon who has been flying in almost every six weeks for the first half of this year. And that has allowed us to expand rapidly on the spine and ortho department and increase revenues from there.
FURTHER INCREASE IN ARPOB POSSIBLE: With the same occupancy and the same bed capacity, there is still a significant opportunity to scale up in the revenue and profitability with the addition of super specialties.
For example, right now, we are in the process of adding on ophthalmology services, which does not really need addition of bed capacity, I mean, of cataract and glaucoma and all of that. So, that will bring in more revenues.
We are in the discussion to add on cardiology services. So, we already have the space to put up a cardiac Cath lab. Our theatre is equipped to perform cardiac surgeries. It was mainly the manpower challenge locally, but with the Navi Mumbai facility now operational, we have access to extremely good teams which are ready to travel within the network. So, with that, maybe by the second quarter of next financial year, we will be looking at adding on cardiology and cardiac surgeries. And that without adding on more beds would allow us to expand the revenue and the bottom line significantly.
ARPOB TARGET: 55-60k target for Uganda
EXPANSION: Going forward, we will be expanding the bed capacity. So, we are in the process of exploring the opportunity to add certain secondary care centres. So, we will not be expanding bed capacity within the same unit, but we may be adding, like we are adding clinics, we may be open to adding certain secondary care facilities, which may be in the range of 15-25 beds, where the primary and secondary care services will be provided. And for tertiary care services, the patients will be referred to the main hospital.
• INDIA OPERATIONS: The plan is to scale up to 500-600 beds in the golden triangle of Maharashtra over the next 24 to 36 months. (52 in Navi Mumbai and 200 in Nashik will be coming by end of this FY)
o Navi Mumbai: We are fully operational and we are accepting patients across all specialties at Navi Mumbai.
Revenue forecast for FY27: With the start of that financial year, Navi Mumbai more or so would be a stable operation to a large extent.
So, for the next financial year, I do expect a 60% to 70% occupancy rate for this particular facility, effectively giving me an occupied bed strength of about 30 beds on a daily basis.
The targeted revenue to be achieved would be in the range of about 25,000 to 28,000 as the average revenue per occupied bed per day, which translates to nearly about a crore rupees on an annualized basis. So, for Navi Mumbai, the targeted revenue would be somewhere beyond INR30 crores for that financial year. And from there on, then we will be looking at growth in the numbers based on improved occupancy, and addition of certain super specialty procedures at that point of time.
The consultants who already gotten empaneled with the facility, they are among the big names in the region, and they are very, very comfortable with the infrastructure that we’ve developed. So, putting all these things together, I do expect the margins to cross 20% for FY ‘26- 27 for Navi Mumbai, maybe inch towards 24%-25%.
o Nashik: Regarding Nashik, the intended plan was December. We still are working towards it. The facility is nearly complete. Installations of various equipments are going on right now. This process will be completed by December. Statutory approvals, again, are something that the applications have begun with. We are waiting for an exact timeline related to that. Based on our experience in Navi Mumbai, we anticipate that some of these statutory approvals might take a bit longer. And that is the only reason that we redefined the commissioning date to next calendar year.
We are looking at maybe sometime around January, February for all approvals to come in and commission the services in totality. One more point, it’s a 200-bed facility, but we are not phasing out the commissioning. So, we will be commissioning the complete facility with all services at one go because we do not want to start with OPDs and then defer inpatient services or other specialties to a later date.
Revenue forecast for FY27: When it comes to Nashik, with the start of the next financial year, it would also be just about the commissioning period of that hospital. So, I will be discounting the first quarter, which we will be perhaps not having a very high occupancy rate.
Effective from the second quarter onwards, I do expect Nashik to achieve an occupancy of somewhere around 50%. Since it’s a bigger facility, it is not going to be extremely easy to achieve 65 odd percent occupancy to begin with.
So, of the 200-bed capacity, I do expect about, say, 90 to 100 beds to be occupied on a daily basis for at least three quarters. The targeted revenue generation per bed for the first year for Nashik will also be very similar, which is about INR25,000 to INR28,000 per day for each occupied bed, translating to about a crore rupees on an annualized basis.
So, yes, for Nashik, I will be targeting a revenue of about INR100 odd crores from that facility.
So, safe to say, both these facilities put together next financial year, the target internally for the ‘management would be to achieve at least INR125 odd crore in terms of the top line. About 15-odd percent would be the ideal EBITDA that should be achievable for both these facilities put together for that financial year. Somewhere around 15% to 18%, I would say.
Our operational breakeven for all the facilities that we’ve put till date, all business verticals that we’ve put till date, over the last 15 years of the company, we’ve achieved an operational breakeven within the first year, and the idea for the team is to replicate that even for the new units that we are putting up. So, Navi Mumbai or Nashik, the target would be to breakeven within the first year.
• LOOKING TO TAP INTO DISTRIBUTION MARKET IN INDIA: With opportunities now being explored to also tap into the domestic distribution market in tandem with the expansion of the footprint of UMC hospitals in India, replicating the model and success that the company has achieved in Africa, and aiming to expand the margins by ensuring effective resource allocation of the procurement and inventory management teams across these two verticals of the company. Simultaneously, also benefiting by lowering the cost of inventory for the hospital facilities coming up in India.
• MEDICAL VALUE TRAVEL: With the commissioning of our hospital in Navi Mumbai, we have re-energized our medical value travel segment and expect a steady flow of international patients from within the UMC hospitals network across Africa, to our facilities in India, starting from the coming calendar year.
And the last bit, UniHealth started as a medical value travel company, which is where the initial strength of the management and the team was. And that is now getting re-energized between UMC hospitals to begin with. So, going forward, we’re going to have a lot of super specialty work, which will be referred from our own facilities in Africa to our facilities in India. This will not only give us a jump in the revenue, but considerable margin addition will also happen because these patients, like any other ‘medical tourist in India, will be charged higher than a domestic patient. And that margin addition will also be significant because it’s a two-way thing. It is from a UMC facility to another UMC facility. We do not really have any person who’s referring a patient or any professional company where a fee is payable. So, from that perspective, the scenario for medical tourism within the network also will start working very well for the group in the coming 12 to 24 months.
• TANZANIA: The new secondary care hospital in Mwanza, Tanzania, is expected to be operational by the end of this financial year.
We are in advanced stages to take over the operational management of a 100-bed facility, which is a tertiary care specialty hospital, again in Tanzania. So, those discussions are ongoing. We have agreed upon the broader aspect of the terms. We are working on the agreement drafts and we are working on the basic statutory approvals required locally. So, once these are through, the timeline for this again is before the end of this financial year, such that we are able to take over that particular facility effective 1st April 2026. But that is subject to the approvals required locally to come through and the agreements to be signed.
RECEIVABLE STRUCTURE: Tanzania, 85% of the patient base is covered by beneficiaries of NHIF, which is the National Health Insurance Fund, which is very similar to our Pradhan Mantri Arogya Yojana out here. But over all these years, NHIF payments typically come anywhere between 75 days to 100 days. So, between 75 to 100 days will be the maximum outstanding period for payments from NHIF, which is contributing to almost 85% of the payer mix in that country. So, if and when we add Tanzania out there, the receivable days are not likely to go beyond 100 days.
• Over the next two to three years, we expect to add another 400 plus beds in Africa to greenfield facilities and strategic partnerships.
• A stronger balance between India and Africa will be an important step for us, as new facilities come on stream.
• GEOGRAPHICAL DIVERSIFICATION: With the commissioning of facilities in India, we are also moving forward towards the intended aim to ensure an optimized geographical balance to the consolidated revenue that the company generates. Contribution to the consolidated top line of the company, not being more than one third from a single country overseas, allowing the company to minimize and mitigate any perceived geopolitical or currency depreciation risks in the future.
• CASH FLOWS AND TRADE RECEIVABLES: Considering that a larger proportion of the payments from our patients in India will be from cash and insured segments, the company, in the coming few quarters, anticipates better cash flows and expects the trade receivable days on a consolidated basis to start coming down.
• UGANDA COMPANY BANK DEBT FREE: Furthermore, with the company having completely repaid its bank debts in Uganda as of 30th September 2025, going forward, it expects significant free cash flow to be available with the Ugandan unit to allow it to allocate a part of it towards capital investments needed to add boost to super specialties and expand its clinical network, while simultaneously also use the funds to repay part of the debt extended to the unit by UniHealth Hospitals Limited, allowing the company to reallocate these funds for expansion in India and Tanzania.
• Overall, we are steadily moving forward towards our medium-term vision of a 1,000-bed integrated India Africa healthcare platform. With clear visibility on commissioning timelines and consistent progress across all business verticals, we believe we are well-positioned to deliver sustainable growth by expanding access to quality, affordable healthcare across underserved regions.
• IMPROVEMENT IN MARGINS: Operating leverage is the reason for increase in margins. Now, for the mature entities, these EBITDA margins more or less are sustainable. I will not say that it will be exactly at the same level because there are fluctuations depending upon different seasons and a variety of other factors. But yes, for the mature businesses, for example, Uganda, more or less with a deviation of about 1.5 to 2 percentage, the EBITDA margin will remain the same.
• MARGINS TO DIP ON A CONSOLIDATED LEVEL: On a consolidated basis, a slight dip is expected is due to the rapid expansion that we are undertaking. So, with the addition of newer facilities in India and expanding facilities in East Africa also, the initial 12 to 18 months, when these facilities are actually being set up and operations have just begun, the patients have just started coming in, at that point of time, the EBITDA margins for these units will be pressurized to some extent till we achieve the break-even point and go beyond.
So, at that point of time, on a consolidated basis, the top line will increase considerably because of the addition of this revenue. But the margin, the EBITDA percentage is likely to come down, which will then again start climbing up once these units, you know, become mature units in a period of about 18 to 24 months.
• INDIAN OPERATIONS MARGINS: I would not comment on UMC hospitals, but typically as an industry, if I look at the segment in which we are, so we are talking about hospitals which are in the 50 to 200 bed tertiary care segment, you have EBITDA margins ranging between 18% to 24% and then climbing up as you achieve scalability, as your brand grows to somewhere closer to 30%. So, if I talk about Max, Apollo hospitals, the big giants, they will be 30% plus minus. If I look at one step lower, they’ll be in the range of about 24%, 25%. So, the ideal margins range between 18% to 30%, 31% for an Indian healthcare setup, for tertiary care specialty hospitals, I mean, super specialty hospitals. In our case, we will also be looking at the same range. Achieving that would be a timeline of somewhere between 12 to 36 months in a growing manner.
• So, in Navi Mumbai, in the month of December, we are planning to launch what we internally call the UMC Health Mahotsav, which will actually launch the facility in the region in terms of a widespread marketing campaign, following which we do expect a sizable number of patient base to start coming in.
• MEDIUM TERM FOCUS: So, in the medium term, our focus will be equally spread across both India and Africa. Both have their reasons and challenges and benefits.
So, when it comes to India, the opportunity to scale up significantly in terms of the numbers is there. So, out here, it will perhaps not be possible for anyone to achieve a 35%-40% EBITDA margin in the healthcare setup. But what is achievable is going from a 500-bed capacity to a 5000-bed capacity in an extremely short tenure period. So, you’ve got opportunities right from Greenfield to Brownfield to acquisitions out there.
When it comes to Africa, it’s a higher margin game out there because scalability is not easily achievable because the population matrix is very different. The payer mix is very different. To scale up, you need to jump from one country to the other, which changes almost everything right from rules and regulations to the geopolitical requirements. So, out there, within the same country, the opportunity lies in adding super-specialty services, which are lacking out there, and playing on the margin that we can achieve.
So, for us at UniHealth, the focus would be both so that we have a very healthy mix.
** We have the advantage of being the first mover in Africa. So, there’s no real competition when it comes to a peer from India having a presence in the geographies that we are.** So, we would like to capitalize on that position, derive strength from there in terms of the profitability and the margins, and use that to allow us to expand rapidly in India.
So, maybe going forward in terms of absolute numbers, top-line and bed capacity, maybe in a five- to seven-year period, India will contribute more compared to Africa. But when it comes to a consolidated profitability, the margins in Africa on an EBITDA level might be slightly higher than they will be in India.
Second, from a promoter and management team perspective, like I am based out of Mumbai, Dr. Anurag, the other promoter, he’s based out of Uganda. So, he relocated to Uganda in 2017, and he’s based out of Kampala, which gives the company considerable strength in pursuing this expansion plan simultaneously in Africa and India. Because we’ve got one, half of the company, which is based out of Kampala, allowing us to expand rapidly in East Africa, the other half based out of Mumbai, allowing us to expand in India.
Third, over the last seven years, I mean, when we started, connectivity was still a small challenge. There were no direct flights to a lot of places, including Uganda. But as we speak today, we’ve got direct connectivity, direct flights flying from Mumbai to the entire East African belt. So, whether it’s Tanzania, Dar es Salaam, whether it’s Uganda, which is Entebbe, Kenya, which is Nairobi, Ethiopia, which is Addis Ababa, you’ve got direct flights. So, it’s a direct five-and-a-half-hour flight, allowing the management team also to crisscross effectively without wasting too much time, allowing us to ensure that our doctors are also able to travel frequently to do OPD camps, to do surgical camps at UMC facilities in Africa, which is allowing us to scale up our super specialties out there.
• INDIA ARPOB POTENTIAL: When it comes to India, initially, like I mentioned, the target would be somewhere around INR27,000, INR28,000. Then it will be scaling up. In India, to achieve INR55,000 is likely to take a time period of about three to five years from now, because out there that would entail addition of certain specialties, like organ transplants, like cancer care in an advanced manner, which are able to generate high revenues, which Apollo and Max and Vedanta today generate.
But the statutory requirements, even if we have to create the infrastructure, get and onboard the team, the approvals and the statutory requirements itself take about two years to get the licensing done and to get the approvals from NABH, which ensures that the quality certifications are in place for insurance companies also to consider. So, that process would take about 2.5, 3 years. That is the reason that 3 to 5 years would be the ideal timeline for the facilities in India to target of 55,000, 60,000 or more. I mean, based on the standard inflation and increase, maybe at that point of time, it might be INR75,000, INR80,000 as the average revenue per occupied bed, which at that point of time would be the target for us.
• Navi Mumbai and Nashik, both these are typically you can call them as greenfield projects. We do not own the properties. We have them on long term lease. As a model for the first phase in India, we are going on an asset light model where we are not looking to invest in the land and building. We are investing more so in redoing the facility internally, adding on equipment and towards the working capital requirements. So, both these are on long term lease. We do not own the property.
• H2 GUIDANCE: Navi Mumbai is now operational. At least one quarter of revenues will get added on. Nashik is likely to be operational sometime during the last quarter of this financial year. Now, it depends whether we get a month, month and a half worth of revenue or just about 10 days of revenue. That is subjective.
In terms of Uganda, we anticipated to continue the same way that it has for the first half of the year, albeit a small dip during the festive season of Christmas. Because Christmas is when people travel out of the country, they do not get elective procedures done. So, normally every year, between 15th December and 15th of Jan, we usually see a dip in the revenue. So, other than that, we expect Uganda to continue its growth trajectory the way it has. We will be adding on ophthalmology very soon, hopefully by the start of the next quarter. So, at that point of time, maybe some revenue will start coming in from that addition as well**. So, Uganda will continue the way it is**. There will be a small addition from the Navi Mumbai facility. Nashik will be operational during that quarter, so it’s difficult to see any addition from that Facility. When it comes to Tanzania, like I mentioned, the 20 bedded secondary care centre, we expect the approvals to come in during the last quarter. So again, addition of any revenue from that is subjective in nature, whether it will happen for a month, month and a half, or whether it will go into the next financial year altogether.
• CONSULTANCY VERTICAL: Right now, we are doing about 1,300 beds on a consolidated basis. This bed capacity has been constant over the last 12 months plus. Some projects we have completed, smaller ones, and a couple of new projects have been added.
Going forward, we are in discussions for another 600-650 beds in terms of the total project size. But these are initial stages of discussions where we are the consultant. So, unless and until the investors who are actually putting in money in those projects achieve a financial closure, we will not be able to take it forward.
Now, whether that takes another few months to six, I mean, three to six months or so, it is difficult to say. We are at advanced stages of our internal discussions with them. So, we haven’t signed any agreements with them for the services. But more or so, it’s a verbal communication that we’ve had. So, I can only say that UniHealth is a shortlisted entity right now for those projects as and when those projects achieve financial closure, at their end, we will be looking forward to taking it up. This is the status in terms of consultancy.
Out here, beyond that, since the projects come up with a very long timeline. So, wherever we are involved from the initial stages, the project cycle can take 2 years to 5 years to actually achieve completion. And our revenue is based on certain targets in terms of the timeline. So, there is a possibility that we may add on 200 beds, but the revenue realization may come only in quarter three or quarter four after the project has been added on.
Initially, the revenue realization might be very minimal, just like a basic retainer. And as and when the project achieves or its targets in terms of specific timelines and milestones, that is when we will be expecting a larger chunk of the payments to come in and that revenue to be realized.
• PUNE: We are already a project management consultant for a large project out there, which is spread over 14 acres, more than 12 lakh square feet of constructed space. That is going to take another 3.5 years to 5 years for it to be commissioned. Right now, we are involved from the concept stage to the commissioning. So, whether we operate that project or not, it is something that will come up for discussion only a couple of years later. So, that is on a consultancy side.
But as a city, Pune is also the next target for our expansion. So, sometime in the next financial year, we will start looking for opportunity to expand in Pune. So, the target is to look at a 125 plus minus bedded capacity tertiary care facility in Pune. Now, whether we do a greenfield by leasing out space or whether we look at acquiring the operations of an existing facility on operations and management modality, that is subjective right now. We have got certain projects, certain properties shortlisted, but we will be actively taking that discussion forward only with the start of the next financial year. So, Pune is a target for both.
Consultancy project is something ongoing. For FY “26-27, definitely we are looking at adding on another 100-125 beds, at least in Pune, in terms of a multi-specialty tertiary care facility.
• CAPEX FINANCING: So, Navi Mumbai, the capex has already been done. It was done using the proceeds from the initial IPO that the company had come up with in 2023.
Nashik, we have achieved financial closure by way of equity contribution and by way of bank facility. So, we have a sanctioned bank debt of INR22 crores from Bank of India, which will be utilized to add equipment for the Nashik facility. So, Nashik has achieved financial closure. Part of the warrants, I mean, whatever funds that have been pumped in, via the warrants issued to the promoters have been utilized for the Nashik facility.
When it comes to the 20-bedded secondary care centre in Tanzania, again, we have a financial closure. We had internal approvals and part of equity contributed to that project. So, that project has achieved financial closure.
Going forward, when it comes to newer projects, both Tanzania, the 100-bedded facility that we are aiming to take over, and Pune, whenever we come up with a facility, both those facilities will require funding. Part of it is likely to come from internal approvals. Like I mentioned, Uganda is now debt-free when it comes to banking perspective. So, whatever cash flows come in, a significant part of it can be rerouted to repaying the debt that UniHealth Hospitals has extended to that company. So, that inward remittance, which will come, will be reallocated for the expansion that the company intends to take.
Other than that, we will also be open to some part of banking facility or bank debt when it comes to Tanzania. And beyond that, there might be a requirement to look at some amount of capital leasing. So, as we move forward towards a closure on both these, Tanzania, the 100-bed facility, and Pune, that might be the time when we look at the overall requirement of funding and which route to take.
• LONG TERM PLAN: Till FY 2027-28, this will be the target that we have 1,000-bed capacity, which is an operational bed capacity between the facilities in India and Africa. At that point of time, maybe sometime next financial year, we will be looking at a revised target for, on a five-year plan. **So, after we achieve the first 1000-beds, the next target can be 2,000 or 5,000 or beyond. So, that is something that we will be working upon at that point of time.**This addition is going to be multi-pronged, when I say multi-pronged, we will be looking at greenfield projects, we will be looking at operational acquisition of existing facilities or O&M.
Like I mentioned about the project that we are providing consultancy services to in Pune, effectively three and a half, four years down the line, when that facility is ready for commissioning, in all probability, the project principals intend to outsource the management. So, whether they outsource it to an Apollo or a Fortis or a Max or us, that is something that we will be looking at two and a half, three years from now. So, yes, in terms of the five-to-seven-year program from today, we will be keenly looking at expanding significantly.
THINGS TO TRACK:
• UGANDA FACILITY PROGRESS: Will ARPOB go to 55-60k? What impact will superspecialities have on margins and cash flows? Will cash flows improve going forward as Ministry of Defense changes its payment schedule?
• NAVI MUMBAI AND NASHIK FACILITIES PROGRESS: Occupancy rate, ARPOB, Ebitda Margins
• TANZANIA PROGRESS
• CONSULTANCY DIVISION PERFORMANCE
• CURRENCY OF UGANDA
• CASH FLOWS
• MEDICAL VALUE TRAVEL SEGMENT PROGRESS
2 Likes
Unihealth surpassed all expectations in H1 performance and stage looks set for better performance going ahead with Multiple expansions coming on stream.
Uganda business growing at 25% for FY27 (increase in ARPOB from 40 to 55-60k), with it being tax free, will cushion any impact on PAT that the initial commissioning of 2 Indian facilities and Possible Tanzania facility.
With management having very ambitious plans of 1000 beds over next 2 years and 2-5k beds after that in the medium, if they can execute in India what they’ve achieved in Africa and what they’ve guided for Indian operations, then sky is the limit for Unihealth. Also. increased medical tourism between africa and indian hospital network could be big margin accretive opportunity going ahead.
The big question/risk still remains the same. How successful their Indian operations will be given the competitive nature of the Industry? Will have to monitor that closely going forward.
Another risk could be of consolidation period of 1-2 years required for ramping up newer facilities.
P.S: One thing I love about Unihealth is the management. So precise in all their answers and they have a proper vision for where to take their company in the long run.
DISCLOSURE: INVESTED
4 Likes
Hi Satish,
I own this company from much lower levels before the results.
Sharing my estimates which I thought are reasonable (I didn’t try perfecting the estimates if conservative estimates itself were making the stock look attractive), your estimates seem to be more conservative than mine too (which is totally fine) 
Thanks.
4 Likes
@hrfacebuk Just curious why you considered Unihealth’s share as 80% in Mumbai and Nasik hospital?
My understanding was that India hospital expansion is done under “UMC Hospitals Private Limited” which is 80% owned by listed entity and 20% by others (which includes 5% directly by Promoters), hence considered 80% share for the listed entity.
1 Like
Thanks. I found it in Annual reports. I wish they had shared in Investor Presentation.