Ugro Capital - Opportunity To Invest in a Fintech-like Company Below Book Value

I could add my 2 cents here…

So, i was reading Poonawalla Fincorp’s latest concall and this is what the MD had to say when commenting on the need for branches…

//… Then for small buisness loans, to go to the customer, meet them and understand, as it is a cash flow lending, for personal discussions with these kind of customers, we need physical branches…

…for the collectiion also if you see all Fintechs are struggling with collection infrastructure…//

So i assume the above reasoning may be true in Ugro’s case too ?

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To a question whether Googlepe tie up with a small bank to get retail deposits using Fintech platform to affect Ugro, Nath replied this may increase deposit base of the particular.bank. Other than that, he is of the opinion that Googlepe may not enter full fledged banking op due to regulatory hurdles.

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It is nice to see the monthly updates from the management on AUM trend, Business trend, Collection efficiency and Bounce rate Trends.

e42a0a3b-5bae-4a53-8808-6e704aeff496.pdf (bseindia.com)

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Came across this relevant para in one of the articles about high stress in School Financing.

Full article

Disc :- Not Invested

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Acuite upgrades rating of U GRO Capital
Some of the saliant points

Acuite Ratings and Research has upgraded its rating outlook from ‘Stable’ to ‘Positive’. The company’s Rs.1100 crore bank loan and Rs. 450 crore non-convertible debentures (NCD) have been rated A / Positive.

U GRO Capital has seen significant momentum in loan disbursements, which was at Rs. 243 crore in August 2021, Rs.260 crore in July 2021 and Rs.193 crore in June 2021. The company has also commenced lending under the co-lending partnership with Bank of Baroda of Rs. 1000 crore since July 2021.

Underlying portfolio continues to be robust and resilient as evidenced from lower delinquencies of 8.9% as on August 31,2021 as against 12.9% as on March 31, 2021 and collection efficiency of over 92% every month since June 2021

fba92942-24f7-4b35-b7df-a9043c42e483.pdf (bseindia.com)

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They are issuing NCDs. Issue size is 10cr and interest offered is 9.25%. They are bringing down the incremental cost of capital.

I had seen it. I was actually wondering whether 9.25% is too high a cost of capital. Large good companies are getting money at 6.5-7%. Hence I was expecting a number around 8 or 8.5%.

Mr. Sandeepkumar Zanvar, Chief Financial Officer and Key Managerial Personnel of UGRO Capital Limited has decided to move on from the company to pursue other career opportunity. While he will continue to the serve his notice period as per the terms of appointment and policies of the Company he shall be relieved from the position of the Chief Financial Officer with effect from 2nd November, 2021.

The Nomination and Remuneration Committee today has recommended the elevation of Mr. Amit Gupta from Chief Treasury Officer of the Company, as Chief Financial Officer in his place. Consequent to this change both Treasury and Finance function would be under Mr. Amit Gupta as the CFO of the Company.

I think couple of CFO’s have resigned within a year :worried:

9.25% is actually their lowest interest rate NCD. Previous NCD’s were issued in 9.9%-11.55% range.

You can check out these interest rates in the later sections of their credit rating report.

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Interesting opportunity…price since 6 months haven’t moved much…I am keen to invest some n wait for the momentum…

Auditors resignation on whatever given reasons…its a dejavu. I remember Vakrangee case. Even CFO resignation n both the situation is similar ie Vakrangee and this company…

Business Update Sep 2021.

For Sep 21, Total Disbursement Rs 288Cr against Rs 243 Cr in Aug 21 (+19%)

Q2FY222, Total Disbursement Rs 791Cr against Rs 331 Cr in Aug 21 (+139%)

Total Liability as on Sep 21 is Rs 1096 Cr with the addition of debt of Rs 338Cr.

4ee30c3f-3086-448a-bab0-6256cbf80a03.pdf (bseindia.com)

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The technology piece is outsourced to a pure-play tech company called Decimal.

My worry is a lot of such articles are that way paid/ managed articles. I am not talking about this article / this magazine per say. Does anyone have a view on the independency of this magazine ?

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When you are sceptical about news or articles, look at technicals… There is no other way to confirm the article bias…

From technicals, you can see money flows in stock. Present breakout with volumes in negative markets indicates some big hands might accumulating the stock and thats a good sign because it also shows the big money is confident on the growth prospects.

Remember, Technical too not guaranty anything but u can take some indication and it can be wrong in high liquidity market.

otherwise you can wait for results too look at numbers because numbers never lies. Problem is that untill number reaches to small retailers, generally it gets priced in present growth. So combination of both is always helpful.

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Board meeting on 25th November to raise funds via non-convertible debentures.
This will increase the leverage and give them more growth funds. Ugro is still significantly under-leveraged compared to most peers.

I view it as a sign of confidence by the company and a strong step towards meeting their ambitious growth aspirations.

Thoughts?

Disclosure: No long term position yet. Started tracking recently. Have traded around volatility in the past 30 days.

They’ve been announcing instruments like these every week. Please also see the announcements on the 27th of October, 2nd of November, 4th of November and 16th of November. Expecting this to be in the ballpark of 50 Cr. at ~10%.

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Fund raising through NCD, Bank debt, security assignment is routine work for NBFC’s.

Basically they have equity capital of Rs. 950 cr and can lever up their B/S upto 3.8x i.e. Rs 3,600 cr and current have Gross Debt of Rs. 1,096 cr.

Hence they will first raise Rs 2,000 cr - Rs 2,500 cr of debt to lend before going for any equity raise.

Check out this latest interaction of Mr Shachindra Nath explaining the same.

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