hi, im not able to understand what im missing aaprt front he short term impact.
sterling valued at 850 cr. cash on BS at 800 cr. debt is negligible. Mcap is 1100 cr. so we are getting the entire company at steep discount. Can someone plz add.
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My views based on the Q4 FY 20 Results
- From an forward earnings perspective the valuations are very attractive. It wiil be a very significant short term pain for TCIL
- FY 2020-21 will be a major revenue de-growth with upwards of 50% revenue fall for TCIL across all business segments
- Most of the businesses have a fixed operating cost. It will be reasonable to expect a operating loss upwards of Rs 500 Cr for TCIL despite the cost cutting initiatives
- TCIL has sufficient reserves, cash to operate the business over the next 12 months. I suppose the cash in the books will be used up to keep the businesses running
- The interest component of around Rs 90-100 Cr will have to be serviced from the other income which is upwards of Rs 100 Cr
- Can TCIL capitalise on this crisis and grab market share from the closure of smaller travel agencies, online portals and grow its top line?
- The business can turn profitable at operating level in FY22
- Immediate trigger for valuation will be the proposed buy back
Disc: Evaluating Investment
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I was checking its Q1 FY20-21 results. There is update in buy back
The Company filed the Draft Letter of Offer (DLOF) for the proposed buy-back with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) on 6 March2020. SEBI had sought additional information / clarification from the Company, which the Company has provided. The Company is awaiting the requisite approvals from SEBI
Can some one put some light on other income of Thomas cook and other expenses (some impact of MTM)
Saw an âinterestingâ note in Auditorâs Report to consolidated financial statements (FY20 Annual Report, page 223, note â(b)â:
"The financial statements/financial information of forty-five subsidiaries, whose financial statements/financial information reflect total assets (before consolidation adjustments) of Rs.1,05,110.25 lakhs as at 31 March 2020, total revenue (before consolidation adjustments) of Rs.91,916.16 lakhs and net cash outflows (net) of Rs 5,142.18 lakhs for the year ended on that date, as considered in the consolidated financial statements, have not been audited either by us or by other auditor.
No audit of subsidiaries accounting for Rs. 919 crores of revenue and Rs. 1051 crore of assets. Wonder how to view this?
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This is one of the stock which is seems de-rated by market. Not participating in any rally whatsoever. Any management interview about business outlook or buyback.
THOMAS COOK (INDIA) LTD.has informed BSE that the meeting of the Board of Directors of the Company is scheduled on 25/09/2020 ,inter alia, to consider and approve This is to inform you that a meeting of the Board is scheduled to be held on Friday, September 25, 2020, to consider and evaluate certain matters in relation to the Buyback.
Buyback price is 57.50 and management earlier said that promoter wonât participate in buyback. But share price is half of the buyback any one wish to throw some light on it.
Buyback now withdrawn. Sensible now.
Although sensible for company, but very bad for shareholders who bought considering the lucrativeness of buyback (see recent case of Accelya who is into similar industry but they honoured open offer).
I am not very sure if SEBI would approve this, but for study purpose it would be interesting to see any such precedence where SEBI as allowed such withdrawal of buybacks (PCJ, Vakrangee?).
Any thoughts on this would be helpful.
Disclosure: Not invested; Only for educational purpose
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Disclosure: invested back in April.
My thinking on this stock is pretty simple: its price collapsed after an unrelated company fell. Then its price collapsed further due to the virus.
On top of that, a major competitor (Cox & Kings) is now out of the picture. Another cherry on top is its low debt.
Currently, the price is down after Q4 losses, but this is to be expected. I expect it to be a really interesting time as it is a good way of seeing whether one decides based on value or price.
On value, the components seem to be good, please correct me if Iâm wrong: low debt, extra cash (buyback was a good sign), competitor fall, downpriced due to purely public sentiment (unrelated company fall), plus the virus dropping the price further.
Price-wise, it seems to be a bad call, as it is posting heavy losses, tourism has shrunk by 66% or a similar figure (donât quote me on this).
It seems really interesting to see, moving forward. What are your opinions on my reasoning?
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Yes, good move. But a massive short-term pain for investors!
I bought with a reasoning very similar to yours. My price is 28. Let us see, definitely a very good time to learn the importance of sticking to value.
May I ask what you meant when you said net debt free?
Latest TCS rules for collection of tax @5% on foreign remittance and packages will be another dampener for the already struggling sector. This is the most severely impacted sector due to this pandemic and government regulation are making it even more tougher to recover.
The Fm announced today a INR 10000 interest free loan for Central govt employees, to be loaded in rupay cards against their leave travel concession. A digital payment push to boost economy. What impact it may have on Thomas cook. Any tboughts?
Does thomas cook digital payment gateway allow rupay card?
Can this, in a way, be read as an investment of 450cr by Fairbridge?
And if not, what was the need of raising this money?
Are they short of capital and do they need this to keep afloat or do they have plans to invest in some new business? I guess the former is more likely because they also forgo their dividend recently. And if yes, that is a bad news for the company.
If the international travel business doesnât revive in next 6 months these 450 cr will also extinguish soon
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Has the time to look into Thomas cook has come finally?
With vaccination and humungous pent up demand, are we at cusp of turnaroud?
The market cap is below Easemytrip, which is no-where comparable to Thomas cook on most of the parameters.
Can u share your comparative analysis between both the companies.
Disc - No holding but interested
It can be simply looked up on screener. The important point is to understand that Travel sector is going to behave like the commodity play for the next couple of years. Demand is going to outstrip the supply. Everyone is waiting for things to open up so that they can go out and get some change in life.
While the demand is going to go up, supply has actually reduced (lot of small players have wounded up, even the big Cox&Kings).
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