The harsh portfolio!

Hi Harsh,

One of the things I observed on Ganesh Remedies was that the cash flow does not show payment of taxes despite provision for taxes in P&L, what do you make of it?

Punjab chemicals will have a good Q1 - they seem to be ticking right boxes. Sizing ur positions is apt but i still feel they have it in them as per the last concall they are getting inquires + plant visits. So in small caps like Punjab Chem this is one optionality that can play out any Qtr. Playing the probability here.

My logic is simple, Alembic has gone through a bad business cycle and its valuations (on EV/sales) is at pre-2014 levels. The idea in any cyclical business is to buy during bad times and hope for mean reversion. When it plays out, you want to sell to people who thinks this cyclical is now a structural opportunity. Sometimes, this logic works out, sometimes it doesn’t. So far, I have observed that it works out more often than not.

I have thought a lot about HDFC AMC and an appropriate benchmark, as there are very few business that dont require any capital to grow. The correct benchmark for HDFC AMC in my opinion is CRISIL and if we look at long term valuations of CRISIL, they tend to bottom out around 25x PE, except for the 2009 crisis when their valuations went down to 10x. So I feel reasonably comfortable holding and adding to HDFC AMC at current multiples.

Also, if you look at presentation of HDFC AMC this quarter, the most encouraging trend is that number of individual accounts have increased by 15% and SIP monthly flows has grown by 39% in FY23. So business is back and management is doing the right things. Lets see how future unfolds.


In the past, I have seen companies adjusting their taxes in working capital items and I think thats what SGRL is also doing. If you look at FY22 annual reports, they provisioned 4.65 cr. as taxes in P&L statement. In cashflow statement, if you add provisions and debit balance of duties it comes around 4 cr. I am not fully sure, but I think these two items are w.r.t. taxes paid.

However, this is a major doubt I had when I was doing accounting verification of the company. The way I came to terms with these was using two different sources:

  1. Their EPFO tax data broadly matches the number of employees claimed in the annual report, and they are regular in depositing these. In a lot of small companies, I have seen delays in depositing provident fund money which is not the case in SGRL.


  2. They didn’t pay any statutory fines on income taxes. Generally, when companies delay tax payments, they have to pay additional interest.

I agree, management guided in last call that growth will come back in Q1FY24.

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Hi Harsh, do you see any concerns with the rising Account receivables for Caplin Point QoQ?

Hi Harsh,

How do you see Avanti Feeds ? What is your thesis and how long you expect the tide to turn ? On 5 year period it is zero percent profit growth as per screener and facing multiple headwinds in these years both inside and ever expanding competing business elsewhere… I can see PB is back to 2014 or before levels. But other than reversion to mean, any other triggers you see here.

Disc: I am not invested and have only very broad idea of business.

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Its largely a reversion to mean story for me, its interesting to note that when I had first initiated a position in March 2020, my underwriting logic was the same as today.

Over time, as Avanti kept on gaining market share in shrimp processing business using cashflows from shrimp feed division, it became clearer to me that they are the absolute leaders in this industry.

Despite this, there has been no returns for a very long time as industry was first hit with raw material inflation resulting in contraction in profitability, which has now worsened as Indian shrimp cos are facing competition from Ecuador amidst slowdown in end markets.

All this has resulted in valuations of Avanti going back to pre-2014 levels. My observation has been that once stocks go through this kind of derating, one needs very few positive surprises to make money. That’s why I continue to hold (and also add to my existing position).

No.

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Hello Harsh,

Thanks for putting out this wonderful thread.

I have tried reading a bit about SGRL. It was specified in the FY22 report that it has 4 products with more than 50% share. Any info with you on the list of those 4 products ? , i have tried searching in the reports & websites of SGRL & the parent firm but no luck.

I have tried searching for the products that i have found in the IPO document & also the FY 21 Annual report.

I have took chemexper as the reference for searching these products, i think this is the best chemical directory available for free (subject to correction).

I haven’t found SGRL as a supplier in any of the below products in this site. These are the list of indian suppliers found in this directory.

  1. Di methyl amino propyl chloride HCl (Related formulas)

  2. Trityl chloride. - ionspharma, chempure, clearsynth

  3. 4-Chloro 4 Fluoro Butyrophenone - amitheterochem, chempure, clearsynth

  4. 1-Bromo-4-propylheptane - only 4 chinese suppliers found.

  5. Sodium Bis (Trimethylsilyl) Amide. - manusaktteva, chempure, avrasynthesis

  6. Tyramine HCl - srlchem, clearsynth

  7. Cyclo Propane Carboxylic Acid - srlchem, chemsamir, avrasynthesis

For this one it is stated as a global player.
Searching as the base supplier of this one, found these. No SGRL name here also. Snap from FY21 SGRL report :

  1. Thionyl Chloride - lobachemie, chempure, avrasynthesis, venkatasailifesciences.

Similarly i have tried searching for the fine & spec chem product list specified in the SGRL site, most of them are also manufactured by any of the above common indian companies.

I’m not an expert in chemicals(newbie), but some how feel entry barriers are less in manufacturing these intermediates. Also there are many Indian manufacture’s for each of the product. Few of the above companies even have list of 150-250 intermediates specified in their websites. But scale can still be matter. What do you think ?

Apologies for this long post in your thread. As i didn’t find any separate thread for SGRL, so asking here.
Disc - Just tracking & reading.

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Hi,

Thanks for sharing these, I think you are looking at the wrong places. Please read their rights issue document to see their main products (summary below).

Here are my product specific notes:

  • Majority of our Pharmaceutical products belongs to Anti-psychotic and Anti-parasitic Drug family accounting for 60-70% of our turnover while few intermediates go into anti diabetic, anti-viral and anti-arrhytmic. The Company is also actively engaged in catering to the Specialty fine chemicals and polymer industry using it’s core chemical expertise whose contribution to the turnover ranges from 10-20%.
  • Pharmaceutical intermediates used in the Anti-Psychotic therapeutic areas are responsible for 29%, 21%, and 10% of our total revenue from operations for the FY19, FY20, and FY21. We supply our products to more than one hundred and thirteen (113) customers directly and indirectly through our network of distributors in the overseas markets which exports its products to more than seventeen (17) countries. Further, our top five (5) customers constitute approximately 47% of our total revenue from operations for FY21
  • Since our inception in 2004 we have developed and manufactured approximately fifty (50) pharmaceutical intermediates for APIs such as Amitryptiline, Nortryptline, Haloperidol etc.

In terms of capacity, these are their existing capacities and utilization trends. Their current expansion will increase manufacturing capacity by 2000 MTPA

Detailed notes at link below.
https://www.bseindia.com/corporates/download/11586/Rights/SGRL_DLOF%20Final_21122022_20221226171730.pdf
https://twitter.com/theHarshFolio/status/1649009766931505152

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Hi Harsh, to start off with disclaimer that I haven’t read a lot of your threads until recently. I am very impressed by your clarity of thoughts like many others would be i am sure. Wanted to understand why 50% of companies in your PF are cyclicals?

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Hi harsh. I have been following up with control prints ltd as i see it is under cyclical in your portfolio. I have got a fairly decent position myself (3%). Just wanted to know your views on the stocks latest results. I feel that it can become a compunder if infra in various companies for ex FMCG category keeps on adding.

Also what do you think of the company investing 50 cr in equity?(RED FLAG)

It is a great razer and blade model like GILLET and i think there is clear target based on tecnicals at 890. What are your views on this

Regards,

Hi! Its more of an outcome of the stock selection process rather than an input I explicitly provide.

Before expressing my views about the stock, please understand that my perception might be biased as I have sold about 13% of my holding in past 30 days.

Coming to Control Print, I find it an extremely good business model with a very lucrative industry structure. Problem with this industry is in terms of incremental growth, which is broadly 1.5x GDP thus limiting sales growth to 12-13%. Given that customers don’t change their existing printers leads to very good operating metrics for existing companies. But its also very hard to gain market share as there are no sitting ducks.

I personally dont find companies investing in listed shares as a red flag. When I am investing in equity to try to generate excess returns vs fixed investment options, companies also have a right to do so. As long as they generate good returns without taking extraordinary risk on invested capital, I think its prudent to invest in growing assets than debt options. Also, Control Print has a very good track record, having generated around 16% returns for a long period of time, which is way more than bond options.

I dont understand technicals. I bought Control Print in October 2021 because I found the business undervalued and growth reasonable. Since then, EPS has compounded at 32%. However, I highly doubt if future nos will be this attractive, and its already trading at higher end of its valuation band which makes me cautious on the stock. This is the main reason I have been slowly selling. Having sold a lot of stocks very early in the past, I want to be more calibrated in my selling. Hope this clarifies my thoughts :slight_smile:

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As of today, I have the following changes to the model portfolio:

  1. Added Anuh Pharma as a new position at 2% allocation. Anuh Pharma came up with a large capex in FY20, since when they have grown sales and PAT at 20% and 40% CAGR.

Importantly, this scaleup has happened due to ramp up in newer molecules. In FY20, anti-bacterial and anti-TB accounted for 65% of sales which has reduced to 48% in FY23. Anti-diabetes is now 10% of their sales. They have also launched vildagliptin which is another diabetes API. So they are migrating from acute to chronic focused portfolio, thereby diversifying their product basket.

Management has guided for 15-20% growth in FY24 and further ramp up in newer products. This is a very conservative management that has funded most of their expansion using internal accruals and have maintained a very good dividend payout of 30-40% over time.

In terms of valuations, they are quite cheap. Post FY14, they have generally topped out around 3x sales and bottomed at 1x sales. Current valuations are towards the lower end.

In terms of PE as well, they are quite reasonably valued.

Overall, Anuh Pharma has shown very good capital allocation, funding most of their capex through internal accruals and maintaining a good payout. With more focus on growth, I feel good value can be created in next few years. Lets see how it works out.

  1. Increased position size in Propequity from 1% to 2%. Company came out with good results, with sales growing by 21% in FY23. In last 4 years, they have grown sales and profits at 18% and 32% CAGR. If we exclude the 60 cr. cash, their current PE is 9x. Including the cash, they are available at 15x PE.

Propequity is expanding rapidly in their valuation business, having opened 30+ new branches in last couple of years. In terms of employees, they have added 100+ employees in this vertical in past year. In this business line, their main competitor are individual valuers, where Propequity’s main edge is a low turnaround time (TAT). As they get empanelled with more banks and HFCs, their sales can show very rapid growth. I want to make this a 4% position and will wait for execution in next few quarters before doing that.

  1. Reduced position size in Stylam from 4% to 2%. There has been a huge re-rating in the stock since I initiated the position a few months back. Since most of Stylam’s business is B2B, I dont know if 30x PE is a sustainable multiple. To reduce valuation risk, I have reduced its position size.

  2. Reduced position size in Aegis from 4% to 2%. Optically, Aegis’ results looked quite good, however looking underneath there were quite a few misses. Their core LPG terminalling business is not growing as expected and industrial distribution business is doing most of the heavylifting. I am worried that a lot of industrial distribution growth has come because of pricing arbitrage between propane and natural gas, and this can also reverse going forward. Given that Aegis is trading at a premium multiple, I have decided to reduce my position size.

  1. Reduced position size in Chamanlal Setia from 4% to 2%. The basmati cycle has played out very well. However, due to the rapid increase in basmati prices demand has also softened.

Although Chamanlal trades at very cheap multiples (7.7x PE) and has shown amazing growth in the past (24% EPS growth in past-5 years and 26% in past-10 years), it hasn’t ever got high valuations. My own mental model is to enter near 1x PB and exit towards 2x PB. Adjusting for the revaluation of land, their current PB is around 1.75x which is closer to the higher end. If the cycle turns adverse, valuations can easily go back to 1x PB. Therefore, I have decided to reduce my position.

  1. Exited Control Print. Since initiating the position in October 2021, company has grown EPS at 30% and share price has doubled. Broadly, they have traded between 10-20x PE in the past 5-years. Current valuations are towards the higher end and I have decided to exit the position.

  2. Exited Suyog Telematics. I was very surprised (and annoyed) to learn that company has decided to increase their exposure to funicular business. In the past, management had promised that Suyog Funicular will repay debt to the parent (Suyog Telematics) once they are listed. Its been more than a year since listing of Suyog funicular, but debt hasn’t been repaid. Not only that, but they have also decided to put more capital in the funicular business by acquiring Haji Malang funicular. I dont see logic in this transaction and therefore am exiting my position.

As a result of these transactions, a 5% cash position has been created. Currently, I am looking to add Mayur Uniquoters as a new position. Additionally, I am looking to reduce (or sell) Aditya Birla AMC and replace it with a higher position size in HDFC AMC (or buy a basket of cheap brokerage cos). I haven’t made my mind yet and will update once I have more clarity. Model portfolio is below:

Core compounder (40%)

Companies Weightage
I T C Ltd. 4.00%
Housing Development Finance Corporation Ltd. 4.00%
NESCO Ltd. 4.00%
Eris Lifesciences Ltd. 4.00%
Ajanta Pharmaceuticals Ltd. 4.00%
HDFC Asset Management Company Ltd 4.00%
Aegis Logistics Ltd. 2.00%
Gufic Biosciences 4.00%
HDFC Bank Ltd. 2.00%
PI Industries Ltd. 2.00%
LINCOLN PHARMACEUTICALS LTD. 2.00%
Caplin Point Laboratories Ltd. 2.00%
P.E. Analytics Ltd 2.00%

Cyclical (47%)

Companies Weightage
Kolte-Patil Developers Ltd. 4.00%
Sharda Cropchem Ltd. 4.00%
Avanti Feeds Ltd. 4.00%
Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC Ltd 4.00%
Alembic Pharmaceuticals Ltd. 4.00%
Amara Raja Batteries Ltd. 4.00%
Chaman Lal Setia Exp 2.00%
Stylam Industries Limited 2.00%
Ashiana Housing Ltd. 2.00%
Ashok Leyland Ltd. 2.00%
Kaveri Seed Company Ltd. 2.00%
Sundaram Finance Ltd. 2.00%
Time Technoplast Ltd. 2.00%
RACL Geartech Ltd 2.00%
Manappuram Finance Ltd. 2.00%
Transpek Industry Ltd. 2.00%
ANUH PHARMA LTD. 2.00%
Shree Ganesh Remedies Ltd - PP 1.00%

Turnaround (2%)

Companies Weightage
Punjab Chem. & Corp 2.00%

Deep value (6%)

Companies Weightage
Geekay Wires 1.00%
Jagran Prakashan Ltd. 1.00%
D.B.Corp Ltd. 1.00%
Shemaroo Entertainment Ltd. 1.00%
Modison Metals 1.00%
RKEC Projects 1.00%
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Hi Harsh,
What your view on RKEC Projects after their qtr results ?

@harsh.beria93 Thanks for sharing the updates to portfolio.
I was trying to compare between new entrant to your portfolio, Anuh and the veteran :slight_smile: in your portfolio, caplin

To keep my query simple -
Caplin’s margins are way superior - 30% vs 10%
Caplin is at ~ 16 PE and so is Anuh
On market cap to sales parameter caplin is about 4 times whereas Anuh is around 1.1(given the margin difference that sort of expected)
On market cap to cash flow comparison - Caplin 22x vs Anuh 10x.

I am curious to understand your thought process behind going for Anuh while compelling alternative are available at reasonable valuation. Is it because the geography they operate and targeting are diversified compared to say caplin or others, is it because you foresee that their margins will improve significantly, or just because its smaller sized - hence the inertia to grow will be smaller compared to likes of caplin.
Thanks!

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Hello @harsh.beria93 can you pls throw some light on the competitive landscape, otherwise the current metrics would demand a higher allocation here given the valuation is still comfortable.

I am quite impressed by the systematic way @harsh.beria93 doing the research of a large base of companies related to and beyond his areas of usual work. Cross referencing the thread always, giving detailed reasons, being open to share knowledge knowing well that others will also get benefitted. The icing of the cake for me was he took time to meet persons like me on his recent trip where he was busy exchanging notes and sharing biggies like @ayushmit during his short time in India. Super humble, full of energy. Thank you for adding value to this forum to make it more useful. Continue to share your good work.

Interestingly I found his style of hunting undervaluation struck a chord with me and I am trying to learn more through super smart and super hardworking chaps like him.

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Agree 100%. Very level-headed. When I think about how I used to be at his age and the kind of things I used to worry about (!!), it makes it all the more stark and impressive for me.

More power to the young man.

I would only offer this unsolicited advice @harsh.beria93 . From your approach and the way you are going about things, I foresee that you are going to end up making a lot of money from equity. However, after a point, money does not add value. It is my experience that investments do not require too much time as well. Investing can be an interesting part-time pursuit.

But what you are studying - that can really add value to society. I hope that you also build on that, and create something wonderful. At the end of the day, I’d say the best thing about good investing is that it can free you from financial worries - so that you can focus on doing what really matters. Investing can free you to be a builder.

Again, I suspect you are probably already thinking this way.

Best of luck.

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Can you elaborate more on your comment about, “investing doesnt take much time and it can be a parttime pursuit”, coz what i hear and read is, you need to follow so many things, so many con calls, so many annual reports …Then different investing books and continuously following different parameters for different industries, then global markets, macro factors like interest rates, unemployment rates, updates on that…there is so much to read and understand and there are only 24 hours in a day…So overwhelming…or am.i misreading something…??

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Again intruding.

You should look at the context for such statements. Harsh is a scientist, so it is pretty obvious that, what seem tough, time consuming, a big effort for most of us is not the same for him, because of his cognitive abilities. What takes a day for me to learn could take an hour for him. Haven’t you come across such intelligent members in the forum? I have.

He may see some losses as Newton did, prone to some misunderstanding, given the nature of businesses, where there exist things that are not quantifiable, and certain non mathematical, psychological and emotional aspects effect prices. But his intellect surpasses a lot of things, so his journey is not the same as that of ours, and as he is sharing his thought process, learning with us through this thread, he is helping us all.

I think even you belong to finance/commerce/business spectrum, so it is relatively easy for you too, as compared to someone who is an outsider, like me. I need a calculator, you don’t.

It is impossible to master certain things when one is not blessed with a particular level of intelligence. No amount of hard work, dedication or practice help, as there is a prerequisite, a line that is drawn when we are born. And market is not that, market is not a place where there is entry fee is a high IQ, I wouldn’t be here if that were the case. There is a lot of learning involved, but that can be accomplished with time and effort.

Having questions or doubts help, but we may never find the perfect answers, so we have to settle with something that helps, so that we can go forward in our journey. And market is so big that if we know where to look, we can be profitable. In essence, we have to find our own place, and there is a place for us, I am in the process of finding mine, hence all this talk.

Hope I didn’t make this laboratory like thread untidy with my reply :grinning:

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Results were quite poor, but I expect rampup in next few quarters. Lets see if things turn around.

Caplin is a formulation co and Anuh is an API co, so their business models are quite different. While Caplin has consistenly delivered very good numbers, their nos are optimized to a great extent, where potential for further improvement in margins is little, especially because their current growth is coming from a much more competitive US market. On the other hand, Anuh Pharma can have some margin expansion if they can scaleup their chronic portfolio. So, the delta in earnings can be higher for Anuh.

Also, my experience in smaller companies has been much better than larger ones, especially if one gets in at a cheap multiple. From a nos perspective, Caplin might look better but from a risk reward, I feel both offer good opportunities.

The large players in this sector are Anarock, Liases Foras and Propequity. The core market of selling real estate prices data is not very big, given that nobody really wants to pay for data in India. Thats why all these companies have tried to build ancillary services that can be offered to clients, where their real estate data is used as an input. Companies like Anarock offer consultancy services to help builders sell more flats by helping them with pricing and a better connection with local brokers. Propequity has taken a slightly different approach, where they provide valuation reports to finance companies based on their database. The opportunity in this business is quite large, and there is not much organized competition around this. I am sure if Propequity scales this, there will be more competition. As my knowledge of this space is still evolving and Propequity is a recent IPO, I want to give more time to see how management behaves and deliver on their plans.

@james_kerala @parkhi_nazar You guys are being very kind, we all learn from each other. I have benefitted 100x+ more from this platform than what I have given back.

You can make it as complicated (or simple) as you want. In my family, I have seen people having huge investing success by reading one issue of Capital Market Magazine a month, and also being very unsuccessful despite following all sorts of complicated finance theories. My own observation has been that more information often doesn’t mean better insights. Its the unique insight or thought process one brings into the markets that gets rewarded over time (assuming its correct).

Investing in its pure essence is very simple (buying good things cheap and hoping for the best). Once you get through the basic learning phase, its quite simple and also a very enjoyable pursuit.

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