Thank You Harsh. I am new to investing. I asked because I am tracking Biocon, Divi’s, PI and some other pharma stocks. Booking profits and investing it in other companies which may give better return in future is an important part of investment - which comes only with experience - I guess.
As of today, I have added 1% position in INOX Leisure which brings the cash back to zero.
Rationale:
My long term growth projections for INOX is about 15-18% over the next 5 to 7 years based on data below:
- Plan to add 830 screens to the current screen count of 574 in next 5-7 years (increase in screens: 13.6%)
- Long term ticket price increase: 4%
- Premiumization: 1-2% (based on increased contribution of F&B sales and advertising revenue)
The normalized OPM are ~14% which gives me an fair enterprise value of ~2.2 times based sales. Lets do some crystal gazing!
FY19 revenues were 1664 cr, FY20 revenues will be close to 1600 cr. (taking COVID into account), FY25 revenues at 15% CAGR ~ 3200 cr., Enterprise value ~ 7040 cr. (P/sales: 2.2, share price: 685). The current share price of 190 gives an attractive risk reward. As company is unleveraged, there is a low likelihood of bankruptcy.
Key risks:
- Rapid expansion will lead to repeated equity dilution (in my estimate the SSG ~ 12-15%, anything more than that requires dilution).
- A shift to OTT
The updated portfolio is below:
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What’s your opinion of files getting directly to homes through digital or the cinema halls not being used? Hope you aware of a dispute between producers and exihibitors going on currently.
No firm opinions. The digital threat has been looming for a while, but it doesn’t seem there are too many entertainment avenues for urban people. Anyway, company reports footfalls and I will much rather look at that in a normalized scenario before coming to any conclusion.
Hi Harsh,
Is there any reason you are not looking into HDFC AMC rather than Nippon as an investment option
While Nippon group does bring some credibility, Anil Ambani run companies have fared poorly in the market wrt corp. governence .
Hdfc AMC is run by Prashant Jain , who has a great track record and name in the market
Thanks for this very useful comment, I used to own HDFC AMC a while back and sold it when its dividend yield fell below 1%. I completely agree that HDFC AMC has a stronger distribution network in terms of banking parentage, but Nippon has a stronger network in B-30 cities. Nippon has the highest retail AUM coming from B-30 cities, which is advantageous as this allows them to charge additional expense ratio. Also, this makes their book less chunkier.
Overall, AMC businesses are superior in terms of being asset light along with strong operating leverage. This comes at the cost of more cyclicality in profits. Nippon management has clearly stated that they will focus on profitable growth and gain market share in debt which is already bearing results (see slide below). Plus, they return most of the profits in terms of dividends giving a nice dividend yield (current trailing dividend yield ~ 2%). I will add back HDFC AMC to my portfolio at a given price (~1800 probably).
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Thanks for pointing this out. Definitely with the recent drubbing , Nippon has entered the buy range.
But what about the management quality?
Management has changed, its Nippon not Reliance now. They are returning most of the profits as dividends, no intercorporate deposits, etc. Plus they are trying to leverage the Nippon network to provide advisory services to their international clients. Do you know something about the nippon management in terms of bad capital allocation?
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Two main updates as of today:
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I sold my 2% position in Balkrishna Industries which leaves cash of 2% in the portfolio. I bought the stock on 23th March 2020 (at around 700 level) and the stock has surprisingly re-rated very quickly. My fair value estimate was around 700 level (EV/sales of 3 times). Currently, it is trading at an EV/sales multiple of 4.5 which is on the higher side (based on past traded history). My projections for the business were 15% growth in revenues for the next 5-years which gave a fair value of 1400 in 2025. With the current stock price of 1162, the risk reward is no longer favorable, that’s why I have sold the position.
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With the sharp re-rating in PI industries, I have sold some shares at 1600 level to bring the position size back to 6%.
The updated portfolio is below:
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Nice portfolio. Ajanta results are good after a long time. What about the product pipeline?. Do you think they can sustain the growth?. Due to some reasons, they dont do con calls. We cant hear from management.
Also, I am surprised at the muted market reaction on good numbers. Usually I dont like discussing about the price movement. Recently, I started giving importance to these two events. 1. Muted or -ve response on a good result 2. Good response on a bad/average result.
Their US growth was earlier guided at 20-25% over the medium term (link), plus they keep on gaining market share in India in all their segments. In the last couple of years, they ran into roadblocks in Africa (specially the institutional business) which seems to be coming back. In essence, it seems that they are well poised for reasonable growth over the next 3 years.
Your question about ANDA pipeline: management plans to file 10-12 ANDAs and launch upto 10 products in the coming year which is what they have also been doing historically.
I am not so sure about this, prices have gone up from 1000 to 1500 since mid-March, plus their price got re-rated sometime last year (around August) when market got clarity about medium term growth prospects.
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Here is a brief commentary of my actions during this market meltdown and the following meltup. For the first half of 2020, my portfolio is down by -9.53% against a nifty return of -13.8%. This is not something I am particularly proud of. The outperformance has mainly come from my pharma basket, PI industries and the new positions bought in March (details are posted in the thread above).
My reasonably large bet on pharma which made my portfolio lag in the past couple of years has started paying off . I am happy on that front. However, I also made a few blunders in March.
During the market fall, I sold out Reliance Industries at ~900. I first bought my reliance shares in February 2018 because I knew that Jio and Retail will be value unlockers in a 5 year timeframe. However, corporate governance always made me doubt my decision to hold Reliance and I finally craved into my fears at an inopportune time. This is my second biggest investing mistake so far, the other one was selling Bajaj Finserv at 4200 in 2017 and using the proceeds to buy Lupin at 1400. Bajaj went on to double from that level and Lupin halved, that was quite a nasty experience! I have been incredibly lucky to match nifty returns in the last two years despite making such horrific errors (also lost quite a bit of money in Zee and Shemaroo in the past 2 years).
Overall, I sold Reliance (6%), Mahindra Logistics (2%) and used the proceeds along with the 5% cash to buy biocon (2%), Balkrishna (2%; which was later sold because of sharp rerating), Maithan alloys (1%), Ashok Leyland (1%), Avanti (2%), INOX (1%), Wonderla (2%), NALCO (1%), 1% addition to Real-estate positions (Ashiana and Kolte).
In essence, I added to the deep cyclical part of my portfolio which might look stupid right now (eg: CV player, INOX, metal & real-estate companies, etc.) but these might play out when we go back to an economic expansion. I have started these positions at a small position size because I plan to add to it if my thesis turns out to be right.
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It took me time to read through the entire history from start but very interesting thought process and thanks for sharing
Excellent details… One advice is to prune the portfolio to keep it simple and easy to track.
I always support consolidation and <10 stocks which has been picked up after proper analysis.
All the best
Note: instead of INOX , have a look at PVR as i feel its expected to go up more in 2-3 years.
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I like the way you analyze companies in general. So don’t beat yourself too much. Post the run up after March, The Commodities and Cyclicals thread by @jitenp makes even more sense. It has been an eye opener for people like me because you don’t get good companies at great valuations 99% of the time like all the books teach you. Therefore I concur to your idea of entering into cyclicals that have hit rock bottom these days.
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The strategy looks easy in principle. And in hindsight it looks great. But executing this contra approach is not easy. It looks like there is not light at the end of the tunnel, ratios turn bad, feels like companies will fold, and so on.
One needs to understand the business/sector, learn from past history, understand what companies did in previous cycles, and so on.
And biggest tool one needs is patience. Nothing might happen for a while. And you will be tested.
Most of the times, one gets rewarded handsomely, if all this is followed. The linearity of returns is rarely there. So be prepared for that.
-Jiten
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Hey @mylu ! Thanks for your suggestions. The reason I am more diversified is my lack of conviction to allocate 10% of my networth in one company. Concentration can produce high returns but it has its own perils, i.e. if I am wrong about even a couple of my companies returns will be adversely impacted. Having a more diversified base might result in lower returns, but I am okay with it as long as I end up making enough. In short, I know what I don’t know.
About PVR vs INOX, I have studied PVR in detail. Their accounting is much more aggressive and their balance sheet is much weaker. I am happy with lower growth in INOX as long as the balance sheet is not out of whack.
On a different note, I love your 4-stock investing approach!
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Hello Harsh,
Would love to know your thoughts on Kolte Patil results. I listened to the concall and was satisfied but the market doesn’t seem to recognise that Kolte is doing much better compared to other real estate companies.
Also, I am worried the market has moved too far ahead and am scared of a draw down. How do you perceive the present market conditions and how are you preparing for it.
Thanks 
I always take Kolte management’s commentary with a pinch of salt, they have a track record of overpromising and underdelivering. That being said, valuations are depressed because market probably doesn’t believe that the real estate cycle will recover anytime soon. However, booking numbers for most real estate companies suggests that real estate cycle has already hit its cyclical bottom. Also, the difference between rental yield and interest rate is finally down below 4%, this is generally when the cycle turns. Now, how things will play out after corona stabilizes is anybody’s guess. For me Kolte is a bet on Pune residential market which has proven to be resilient (to a large extent) because of the low inventories (i.e. market is not oversupplied). Also, Kolte’s expansion into Bangalore and Mumbai is promising (at least so far). Lets see how management executes.
About stock market sentiments and outlook, I don’t know! I try focusing on businesses.
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As of today, I reduced my position size in Divis from 2% to 1%. This is mostly because of valuation concerns, I have used the proceeds to add to existing positions (such as Ashiana housing) whose position size has gone down because of sharp stock price correction. This leads to the build-up of cash of 3% which I am looking to deploy soon. The updated portfolio is below:
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