I think there was some discussion about it on Nesco’s thread, Jio world centre is a convention centre whereas Nesco is an exhibition centre. I keep a tab on some industrial exhibitions and a number of them have resumed in Nesco’s centre. So I think exhibition business should come back over time (and should not be impacted due to Jio world centre). This division is very significant for Nesco, contributing 150-200 cr. during normal times.
Well its been a disappointing journey with Lupin, I have got this one wrong. Currently, they are struggling with their supply chain and on their HR front (retaining talent).
Lupin invested in a lot of very different things (acquisition of Gavis + biosimilar + inhaler + injectable + specialty women’s division) and they have executed poorly (so far) on everything except inhalers (where execution has been top notch). The FDA compliance issues meant that Lupin could never launch their very rich pipeline and now a number of such molecules has lost its economic value due to competitors launching them. Also, company was hit by things outside management’s control (like failed back to back flu seasons because of people wearing masks, where Lupin is the leader).
If we look at last 4-years, the number of products commercialized in US has stayed stagnant and revenue per ANDA has also come down (pricing pressure). This is the main reason for revenue stagnation.
| FY18 | FY19 | FY20 | FY21 | FY22 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cumulative ANDA filed | 398.00 | 422.00 | 430.00 | 437.00 | 457.00 |
| Cumulative ANDA approved | 235.00 | 265.00 | 272.00 | 288.00 | 297.00 |
| Products commercialized | 165.00 | 176.00 | 174.00 | 168.00 | 166.00 |
| US revenues (mn $) | 879.00 | 778.00 | 800.00 | 720.00 | 738.00 |
| US revenue (mn $) per launch | 5.33 | 4.42 | 4.60 | 4.29 | 4.45 |
This is further compounded by the fact that Lupin is losing market share in a number of their key molecules (data below).
| FY18 | FY19 | FY20 | FY21 | FY22 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Us market leader (# products) | 51.00 | 65.00 | 63.00 | 53.00 | 44.00 |
| US top 3 (# products) | 109.00 | 129.00 | 123.00 | 122.00 | 113.00 |
About future: Lupin needs to fix their compliance issues and launch a lot of products. Hopefully, margins will revive once they are able to launch high value products (like spiriva, suprep). Lets see how it unfolds.