The harsh global folio!

Dear @harsh.beria93 & @rajanprabu

VFC seems to be an interesting stock to analyze. However, looking at the chart, I feel that market might be knowing something that we are probably overlooking. Other than, D/E ratio going to 2X from 0.5X, I can’t find anything bad so for.

Question:

  1. Why did the Debt/Equity jump suddenly during CY19Q4?
  2. When these debts are maturing and are they facing refinance risk?

Thanks as always
Bala. P

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I had mentioned it in my note, they had acquired Surpeme brand for $2bn in 2020.

About maturity profile of debt, they have refinanced via green sustainability loans in past few quarters.

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If this is not speculation, then what is? :smiley:

@harsh.beria93 How does the change in debt taxation figure in your future international investments ?
The change in taxation to income tax slab & not as capital gains looks to me like a significant deterrent for future investment.
Please let us know your thought process.

Hi, I am a non-resident Indian living in Switzerland, so these tax rules don’t apply to me.

If I was investing from India, I would have still diversified globally because of the massive opportunities abroad. For e.g. last year I was buying InMode which is an amazing business (80%+ gross margins, 40%+ EBITDA margins, 40%+ ROIC) growing at 25%+ rates and I was able to buy it at 10x PE. There is not a single business in the Indian listed universe which has these kind of risk reward.

Similarly, I bought Markel (speciality insurance co) at book value or the largest German AMC business at negative enterprise value. These kind of opportunities are just not available in India and I am happy in participating in these even if I have to shell out higher taxes. Hope this clarifies my thought process :slight_smile:

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INMODE is also my largest holding. HPQ is another stock which I added at <10x of FCF ( FCF > $ 3.5 bn per year and MCap< $30 bn.

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As of today, I switched from Phillip Morris to British American Tobacco. BAT has much higher dividend yield and almost the same business profile as Phillip Morris.

In terms of EV/sales, both have traded at similar multiples except since 2020 when valuations have diverged. I attribute this partly to problems in UK and general risk aversion of investors towards UK market.

On dividend yield, BAT now trades at close to 8% yield.

Updated folio is below and cash remains at 18%.

Companies Weightage
AB InBev 5.00%
Berkshire Hathaway 10.00%
Disney 5.00%
Fairfax India Holdings 10.00%
Markel Corporation 5.00%
BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO 2.00%
Uber Technologies Inc 2.00%
UBS ETF CH-SMI 5.00%
Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index Fd 10.00%
Dropbox Inc 2.00%
Netflix Inc 5.00%
Suzuki Motor 5.00%
Starbucks 5.00%
Inmode Ltd 2.00%
DWS Group GmbH & Co. KGaA (DWS) 2.00%
Google 5.00%
VF Corp 2.00%
Cash 18.00%
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