The Anti-Portfolio

Great updates @vikas_sinha

Your clarity of thought and conviction to cut down current positions completely and enter new positions without any price anchoring is a great skill.

I would advise a bit of caution for Cosmic CRF. Having seen the SME presentation first hand, somewhere things and cash flows don’t fully add up. More due diligence might be required.

EFC and Robu are SageOne picks, so mostly you need to get the entry point right!

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Bought websol from leftover cash of diwali trades, which would have otherwise been withdrawn to a bank FD, feeling bullish on waaree energies like bet.

Disc: unqualified to advise, hence please do your own research.

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Thanks Vikas lot the update.

Just wanted to know your sudden exit from Time Technoplast. Company taking aggressive moves like it’s recent amalgamation with a lead acid battery company.

Also please share the rational behind the entry in the already run richly valued Shakti Pumps stock.

Thanks & Regards.

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Time techno was already quite close to my target, quite quickly, further growth plans can take a decent amount of time, hence I exited.

Shakti pumps is still decently valued given the projection from management for 30% growth going forward for few years, and capacity expansion plan.

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Hi Vikas: What kind of business overlap you sense b/w ‘Waaree Energies Ltd’ and ‘Websol Energy System Ltd’?

Just that both make solar cells and modules, waaree should start solar cells production soon.

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I really feel like Indigo has great deal of potential from here, all the headwinds they are facing are sectorial and nothing company specific. I think their loyalty program could be something which can help it retain market share. They should collaborate with Dreamfolks to allow customers to redeem their points on lounge.
They have great OTA opportunity also, they should further invest and collaborate with other travel SaaS companies to focus on how people are spending their money once they reach their destination. Which should help Indigo curate iteniary for people and allow them to make more money from advertisement both in flights and through their app, which is much better than any other airline application.
They should also focus their business related to private charter as UHNIs continues to grow in India.
I don’t think promoter selling a problem here, they have professional and independent management now and ambition to grow and retain market share.

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@vikas_sinha ji still holding on to Exicom after disastrous Q2 results?

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Looks like have to become a long term investor here :sweat_smile:, which I wouldn’t like to be, hence likely exit

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Exited Exicom, reduced Tinna, added Sathlokhar, NPST and Tembo.

Sathlokhar is just a civil works contractor for private projects, full package from factory to interior design, growth seems to be doing well.

NPST is into UPI payment software for banking.

Tembo is into mostly fasteners and industrial contract work with expansion for pipes and diversification for defence.

Tinna seems at fair enough value for now, margins are not looking that good if EPR credit is set aside.

Disc: unqualified to advise, hence please do your own research.

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Mentioned Long Term and exited in 11 Days. I admire your speed of decision. Was speaking with someone in my circle.He has a couple of positions in red for a long time. They hardly come to black, but he intends to keep them for the long term. On enquiring what he meant by long-term, he said it will be passed to his son who is just 8 Yrs. old right now. What a contrast in Long Term thinking!!!

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I think you missed the smiley in his post .I think he already had decided to sell but was not mentally ready to take the loss at that time and so was thinking of holding on till the price came back to a bearable point .:blush:

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Decision of long term and short terms are based in recent triggers, nothing is black & white in stock market, especially in bull markets crooks promoters play with balance sheet hence for small cap and mid cap companies untill there are very strong reasons based on valuations and cash flows, selling and protecting capital is best decision. Long term hold can become a hard sell based on change in industry dynamics hence nothing wrong. This is not the time for long term hold, your friend might have become a “forced long term” than long term. I had invested in Kalyan Jeweller in Nov 22 at average 110 levels, as oer management guidance my estimations were for a market cap of 80000-100000 cr in FY 26. Market euphoria has given market cap of 70000 cr in 2024 with rich valuation of 115 PE, so what should i do, should i hold for two more years for time correction? Never, i have exited my all holdings 700 average levels. A long term bet of 5 years sold in 2 years flat. Sarcasm for others strategy is not a good.

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To be explicitly clear, my comment was to highlight sheer admiration for overcoming endowment or Loss Aversion bias. Not otherwise. Thx.

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Latest folio status:
CAGR approx 38% since inception, 7 years ago. Currently at peak. Calculations are considering the withdrawn amount too. 70% up in past year. Total 27 stocks, need some trimming!

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Such a commendable journey—congratulations!

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Great portfolio.

You seem to be inclined towards very high growth micro/small cap stocks.

Keep it up Bro.

Curious to know your investments in RBM Infra, Tembo & Network people and any planned investment horizon for these 3 stocks.

Thanks & Regards.

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Congrats on the amazing 38% CAGR over 7 years and 70% growth this year! Wishing you continued success! :clap:

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Congratulations Vikas for great track record.

A stupid question, I don’t remember reading about it, so asking.

What is the difference between current return % and total return % ?

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Hey, great going sir.
I have a noobie question regarding cagr calculation.
How do you account for the extra money inflow you do in the shares. For big portfolio and small inflow the cagr values won’t deviate much but for small portfolio and a sizable inflow the values get skewed by a significant amount.

My current inflow per annum is approx 20% of the portfolio but yeah as the portfolio value increases the % would go down but just wanted to know the method to do that for the current situation.

I’m aware of xirr but I see a huge deviation between cagr and xirr.
My xirr comes at 120% and cagr is around 65%. It’s a 4 year old portfolio but started from a very small value hence the big numbers but it will settle with time to a normalised value.

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